MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus August 10

We’re back with another MLB FanDuel Daily Pitching Focus column, the Thursday, August 10th ‘Main’ slate edition.  We’re a daily fantasy baseball column arming you with the best MLB FanDuel lineups, using pitching as a focus.

With six team’s off today, there are only 12 games on the MLB schedule this Thursday.  Two of those games are starting between 12:30pm and 1:30pm EDT, and are part of the Early Only or All Day MLB FanDuel slates.  But our focus it he Main slate, narrowing our options down to ten games, or 20 starting pitchers to review.

There are several great starting pitcher options for our pitcher pick tonight, and we have a handful of terrible pitching targets for offensive stacking.

Seven of the 20 starters tonight have a SIERA below 4.00, and 13 of the starting pitchers on the mound tonight have a 20%+ strikeout rate.  Even more impressive, eight of those pitchers have a strikeout rate above 24%, suggesting there’s plenty of opportunity to get big points from the pitchers pick tonight.

But that also means we have a greater number of solid options, further spreading the ownership rates across the pitchers on a smaller schedule.  This doesn’t happen often on a Thursday, so take advantage!

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We’ve narrowed our list of interested games down to only five.  Here is the list of games we’re focused on tonight:

NYM Jacob deGrom at PHI Vince Velasquez (7:05pm EDT)

CLE Danny Salazar at TB Blake Snell (7:10pm EDT)

HOU Brad Peacock at CHW Carlos Rodón (8:10pm EDT)

BAL Wade Miley at OAK Chris Smith (10:05pm EDT)

LAA Tyler Skaggs at SEA James Paxton (10:10pm EDT)

We’ll start with the top pitching play for tonight…

Top MLB FanDuel Pitching Play

Over his last three starts, Jacob deGrom ($10,600) is averaging over nine strikeouts per game, including a match up against Darvish and the Dodgers last week.  We expect deGrom will be a hot commodity against the Phillies tonight, but we think that’s a mistake.

While the Phillies have a 22.8% strikeout rate against RHP’s at home, they’re also producing well, now a 100 wRC+ which is league average.  deGrom isn’t a bad option tonight, but there are several better options, starting with James Paxton ($9,900).

Of all the pitchers on the mound tonight, Paxton has the lowest SIERA, 3.38.  James also has one of the lowest walk rates, 7.0%, a very high 28.8% strikeout rate, and is only giving up 0.40 home runs per nine innings.  Along with a 1.07 WHIP, second best on the mound tonight, Paxton is dominant in all the advanced pitching metrics compared to his peers tonight.

Mike Trout is always a concern for pitchers, but the rest of the Angels lineup has been unimpressive all season.  When away from L.A., the Angels have an 83 wRC+ against LHP’s, 10th worst in baseball, and a 20.9% strikeout rate.

The last time Paxton pitched against the Angels he had six strikeouts in only 5.1 innings, for a total of 31 MLB FanDuel points.  But James had struggled with some nagging injuries and since recovering, he’s been a dominate pitcher over the last month and a half.  Paxton is the top pitcher tonight, on a reasonable salary.

MLB FanDuel Top Pitcher Fades

We typically like to stay away from high-walk rates in starting pitchers, and with a 10.3% rate, Danny Salazar ($9,300) is one of those guys.  Danny also has an unimpressive 1.33 WHIP and high 4.32 ERA.  But over his last 22 innings pitched, Salazar has only giving up five walks and four earned runs.  That’s clearly a major positive turn in his season.

While Danny also has a 1.44 home runs per nine innings, that rate is dropping.  And a huge reason we like Salazar when on the mound anytime this year, is the awesome 32.8% strikeout rate, highest of all starting pitchers on the mound tonight.

The Rays are now tied with the Orioles for the 11th best wRC+, 108, against RHP’s at home. Along with a 37.3% hard-hit rate, there is some risk here.  The Rays could pop a few over the fence.  But given Danny’s run lately, that seems more unlikely now.  Also, the Rays have a juicy 25.6% strikeout rate, and have struggled against high-K rate pitchers like Salazar this season.

With other great plays like deGrom, Darvish, Gray, and Peacock, we know Salazar could easily get overlooked tonight, and his ownership may dip below 10% in GPP.  So this is a medium-risk but high-reward option on a reasonable salary.  If you don’t want to go with the best choice, Paxton, tonight, Salazar is your guy!

MLB FanDuel: Top Value Play

The Houston Astros have the best bats in baseball.  Their lineup is potent, especially against left-handed hitters like Carlos Rodón ($7,500) away from home.  The Astros now have a ridiculous 134 wRC+ in this scenario, a low 17.8% strikeout rate, .299 batting average and.208 ISO.

All of those hitting stats are very impressive and it’s no surprise they’ll be a stacking target again tonight.  However, the Astros’ offense has struggled this week, averaging only three runs a game against the White Sox in Chicago.

So tonight presents a very unique opportunity to play a contrarian pitcher pick, with a low salary, and enormous up-side potential for MLB FanDuel points.  So why Rodon against the Astros tonight?

Over the last three games, Carlos pitched against the Cubs in Wrigley, Indians in Chicago, and Red Sox in Boston.  None of those match ups are easy.  Yet, Rodon averaged 45 MLB FanDuel points-per-game and over ten strikeouts per game.  Heading into this match up, Carlos has a strong 30% K-rate and low 3.91 SIERA.

There’s plenty of risk if the Astros bats finally come alive in Chicago, but Rodon has the potential to land around 50 MLB FanDuel points, under the radar against the Astros, and on a very cheap $7,500 salary.

Pitching Targets / MLB FanDuel Offensive Stacks

Cleveland Indians vs. Blake Snell

We talked about why we like Salazar against the Rays tonight, another reason we like Danny is the high-probability of a win over Blake.  Snell has a decent 19.8% strikeout rate, but also has a high 12.7% walk rate.  Snell’s 1.58 WHIP and 4.98 ERA suggest he’s struggling to keep batters off the base path or from scoring.

Against LHP’s away from home, the Indians have a 111 wRC+, eighth best in baseball, and a low 16.4% strikeout rate.  Also, the Tribe has a high 10.2% walk rate while facing a pitcher who’s struggling with walks.  The Indians are mostly affordable, and should be stacked tonight.

New York Mets vs. Vince Velasquez

While Velasquez has a solid 21.8% strikeout rate, he’s also struggling with a high 10.7% walk rate and is giving up 1.77 home runs per nine innings.  Vince is the only target with a SIERA below 5.00, 4.67, but with a 1.46 WHIP and 4.82 ERA, it’s clear he’s struggling to shut down lineups.

Against RHP’s like Velasquez away from home, the Mets have a 99 wRC+, fourth best in baseball and above a very good Nats lineup.  Against pitchers like Velasquez, it’s more likely the Mets will be on the high-end of their average.  They’re affordable, so stack them!

Oakland A’s vs. Wade Miley

Miley has struggled all season and we will continue to target him until he pulls a Gausman and turns things around quickly.  Miley also has a decent K-rate, 19%, but that’s where good things end with his metrics.  Wad has a 5.04 SIERA, 12.4% walk rate, 1.42 home runs per nine innings, 1.74 WHIP, and 5.51 ERA.

The A’s are tied with the Dodgers with a 115 wRC+, second best in baseball for offensive production at home against left-handed pitchers.  They have a 24% strikeout rate, but an awesome .322 BABIP, fourth best in baseball.  They are cheap and are a great option stacked with a more expensive pitcher like Paxton.

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Good luck with your MLB FanDuel plays today, and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!