My Sophomore Crush: Kris Dunn is a jump shot away

It’s summer — popsicles, beaches, campfires and summer love. As the heat rises, time slows and crushes develop. We’re leaning into that amorous mood this week at The Step Back, sharing our sophomore crushes. Last year may have given us an uninspiring rookie class, but we’re feeling pretty enamored with the future.

Kris Dunn as an NBA prospect has an obvious problem. He can’t shoot.

It wouldn’t likely be as big of a concern if Dunn was entering the league as a 19-year-old with years of development still ahead of him, but he was one of the oldest prospects in the 2016 NBA Draft. There were already concerns about his shooting throughout his four years at Providence — even though he went from making 28.6 percent of his 3-pointers as a freshman to 37.2 percent as a senior — and he didn’t leave much room for optimism in his rookie season with the Timberwolves.

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The numbers tell you everything you need to know: Dunn shot 28.8 percent from the perimeter and 34.8 percent on long 2-pointers as a rookie. Those two areas made up over half of his shot attempts on the season. Dig a little deeper and it gets worse: Dunn made 24.5 percent of his catch-and-shoot 3-pointers and 30.0 percent of his wide open 3-point attempts. He finished the season averaging 0.9 points per game on spot-ups and ranked in the 13.5 percentile with 0.74 points per possession. He wasn’t much better on pull-ups.

This, for example, is the sort of defense teams got away with playing against Dunn last season, especially when Tom Thibodeau moved him off the ball:

Dunn actually made that shot, but the point remains. With Karl-Anthony Towns being the primary scoring option for the Timberwolves, it was hard for him to operate with Dunn on the court because his defender could play free safety. It should therefore come as no surprise the Timberwolves went from averaging 109.3 points per 100 possessions to 105.7 points per 100 possessions — basically the difference the Spurs at No. 7 and the Pacers at No. 15 — when Dunn was on the floor last season.

In total, they went from being outscored by 0.1 points per 100 possessions with Dunn on the bench to 2.8 points per 100 possessions when he was on the court.

Where Dunn did make an impact last season, however, was on defense. At 6-foot-3 with a 6-foot-9 wingspan, Dunn is a nightmare for opposing point guards to match up with. He has the length to make every shot and pass they attempt difficult, as well as the foot speed to chase them around screens. All of those tools give him the potential to become a lockdown defender when he’s in his prime, and he’s already off to an encouraging start. It certainly doesn’t totally make up for his shortcomings on offense, but it makes his path to becoming a contributor in the NBA much clearer.

Just watch how quickly Dunn gets off the floor to block CJ McCollum, who is one of the best and smoothest midrange scorers in the NBA. Dunn’s combination of size, speed and length is incredibly impressive for a point guard.

Now watch him prevent D’Angelo Russell from using Brandon Ingram’s screen before poking the ball out of Ivica Zubac’s hands underneath the rim as the help defender. While it’s hard to come to any conclusion based on a couple of clips, Dunn clearly knows how to play defense at an NBA level already.

As far as stats go, Dunn is only the 14th rookie guard in NBA history to record at least 75 steals and 35 blocks in a season, according to Basketball-Reference. That list includes the likes of John Wall, Latrell Sprewell and Dennis Johnson — as well as some less notable prospects like Michael Carter-Williams, Eric Gordon and Jamaal Tinsley — and Dunn hit those benchmarks in the least amount of minutes.

Dunn also checked out as the seventh best perimeter defender in the NBA last season using Stephen Shea’s Individual Defensive Ratings. He probably wasn’t actually the seventh best defender in the league last season, but it speaks volumes about how prepared he already is on that end of the floor.

All of this is to say two things: Dunn enters his second season in the NBA as a huge negative on offense and a huge positive on defense. A lot was made about his rookie season and how he was nothing close to what people expected, but he still has the makings of an exciting NBA prospect. Put him in a situation where he’ll have the ball in his hands more with at least three shooters surrounding him at all times such as Zach LaVine, Paul Zipser and Lauri Markkanen, and maybe he begins to look more like the player everyone expected to walk away with the Rookie of the Year award.

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Or maybe he doesn’t. It’s hard to say. Still, it’s always exciting to see players shatter expectations to become something special. Dunn has already done it once in college, and it sure would be nice to see him to do it again in the NBA. What’s interesting is the biggest weakness he’s already overcome as a prospect is the same one standing in his way again.

Life is funny like that, I suppose.