Marvin Bagley III is now the top prospect in the 2018 NBA Draft

This year’s batch of rookies just learned where they’ll be playing their first NBA games with the full schedule release happening Monday evening. However, it was another announcement on Monday night that the basketball world as a whole had their eyes on.

Marvin Bagley III, a 6-foot-11 and 220 pound rising senior, made his commitment to where he will be playing college basketball. The consensus No. 1 recruit chose Mike Krzyzewski and the Duke Blue Devils — who unretired Danny Ferry’s No. 35 for him — but he also stated that he would “forgo [his] senior season” and enroll in Duke this year.

Naturally, this throws a wrench into the upcoming college basketball season, but the biggest impact it has is on the 2018 NBA Draft.

Prospects Michael Porter Jr., Luka Doncic, DeAndre Ayton, Mo Bamba and Miles Bridges have long been the names atop 2018 NBA Mock Drafts. With the addition of Bagley, there’s a new alpha amongst this group. Bamba and Ayton have been fawned over for their size and potential, Bridges is an athletic freak, Doncic plays the most mature brand of basketball of any 18-year-old and Porter Jr. was the crowned prince of this class.

There has been much debate about who is the best prospect of the group mentioned above, but the debate is over. Bagley is the crown jewel of the 2018 NBA Draft class.

Bagley played with LAUNFD in the heralded Drew League this summer and more than held his own against NBA and professional players. In the All-Star Game — Drew League vs. Jamal Crawford’s Crawsover league — he almost posted a 20-20 game as he ultimately finished with 18 points and 20 rebounds.

Bagley is an inch shorter than Ayton and his standing reach is almost a full foot shorter than Bamba’s bat-like physique (8-foot-9 compared to 9-foot-6), yet Bagley is much more fluid and advanced offensively than either of those two. Bagley is comfortable with the ball in his hands and can act as a grab-and-go big in transition. He’s shown advanced footwork in the post and the ability to finish with either hand around the rim.

Bagley’s game is going to get him a first-class ticket into the “Unicorn” grouping of big men that have become the flavor of the month in today’s NBA. The lefty from Arizona is comfortable on both the perimeter and interior on both ends of the floor. He has proven to be an elite rim-protector among his peers. During the 2017 17U Nike Elite Youth Basketball League (EYBL) sessions, he finished third with 47 blocks (3.1 blocks per game) and only committed 17 fouls in 15 games. He’s no slouch on the boards, either, pulling down an EYBL-leading 14.9 rebounds per game this summer.

The newest Blue Devil also poured in 25.8 points per game (second only to R.J. Barrett’s 28 points per game) and shot 54.6 percent from the field.

In regards to weaknesses, one flaw stands out — his shooting. Bagley was a 63.2 percent free throw shooter and knocked down only 13 of his 56 3-point attempts (23.2 percent). But Bagley doesn’t need to undergo any shot transformation. His shooting motion is smooth. He just doesn’t have the precision or touch necessary to be a consistent perimeter threat yet.

With Wendell Carter and Marques Bolden already in Durham, Bagley is going to see some time as a four in Duke. Coach K’s best prospects of late have been stretch-four types (Jabari Parker, Justise Winslow, Brandon Ingram and Jayson Tatum). Even though Bagley is a different (and better) player, they will likely work on Bagley’s ability to stretch the floor. His shot just needs a few adjustments and Duke has shown it has the coaching available to help develop its top players.

Porter Jr. drops below Bagley because Porter Jr. has not yet shown that he can be the same kind of defensive force as Bagley. Porter Jr.’s game is more suited for the wing, whereas Bagley can be a center on defense but play any position offensively. I try to avoid comparisons, but to better hammer home my point I’ll add this: Porter plays like a taller Paul George and Bagley resembles Giannis Antetokounmpo without the freakish wingspan.

With Bagley now being in the NCAA, it’ll make it easier to compare and contrast the strengths and weaknesses of each against equal competition. Based off what I’ve seen through their high school careers, as well as their pro-am and international debuts, this group of six players are going to drive the conversation for the 2018 NBA Draft. However, Bagley has been described by ESPN’s Paul Biancardi as a “once-in-a-generation” talent. He’ll be watched closely during what will likely be his lone season in college. As of this moment, Bagley is the creme de la creme for next year’s draft.

Next: Nylon Calculus: 2017-18 NBA calendar dashboard

* All EYBL stats courtesy of d1circuit.com

* All measurements courtesy of DraftExpress database

Home/NBA