This Week in Stats: Romelu Lukaku clinical for Manchester United

The 2017-18 Premier League season kicked off with a glut of goals, including two from Romelu Lukaku. What did we learn from the underlying statistics this week?

As seasons develop, so too do narratives and trends surrounding certain teams. This weekend we also saw examples of how issues can continue seamlessly from one campaign to the next.

Let’s start with Arsenal. Things were looking rosy when Alexandre Lacazette scored two minutes into his debut to give the Gunners the lead. Yet after 29 minutes, Leicester were 2-1 up. “Wenger Out” was trending at what must’ve been the earliest point of any season. This is the problem with Arsenal: they live permanently in a state of being one bad result away from a crisis.

By the end of the match, they had done enough to win 4-3. Social media sages suggested Olivier Giroud’s late winner merely papered over the cracks. Dig a little deeper, though, and you see the shot count was 27 to six in Arsenal’s favor.

The Gunners’ attack was better than you might think

Teams that are losing usually shoot more as they try to get back into the match, and the Gunners were behind for approximately half of the game. Between Jamie Vardy making it 3-2 to the Foxes and Aaron Ramsey’s equalizer, the shot count was 11-0 to Arsenal. Some were potshots as you’d expect, but five were in the box. Two were classified by Opta (the Premier League’s official data partner) as “big” chances.

These are defined as “a situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score usually in a one-on-one scenario or from very close range.” Even the very best attacking teams average a shade under three of these top quality opportunities per match. For Arsenal to have two such chances in 25 minutes against a team with a lead to protect suggests their attack will be okay this season.

Leicester conceded a total of four big chances in the match. They only did so three times on the road last season, despite their troubles early in the campaign. Not only that, but Leicester had three shots on target and scored them all. That’s obviously not great from Arsenal’s defensive point of view on the night, but it certainly won’t happen too often either. This all lends further weight to the notion Arsenal will be fine this year.

While Wenger’s side have a reputation for trying to walk the ball in, they scored the most headed goals (17) in the division last season. They bagged another two on Friday night, and they weren’t alone this weekend.

The number of headed goals each season in the Premier League has been remarkably consistent over the years. To almost conspiracy-theory proportions, in fact.

The Emirates stadium witnessed four headed goals this weekend, which is roughly as many as the Premier League averages each week. It wasn’t just Leicester and Arsenal who scored two headers, though. Watford did, too.

Same old Liverpool?

Just as Arsenal fans are prone to throwing a wobbly when going a goal down, Liverpool supporters are obsessed with their team’s poor record at defending set pieces.

This was brought into sharp focus at Vicarage Road. Watford scored the first and last goals of a 3-3 draw from corners. The home side only had nine shots in the match, which initially suggests the Reds defended well. Four of those were in the 6-yard box though, and only Bournemouth (with five at West Brom) conceded more such shots this weekend.

Three of those four were from corners and led to the goals (as the Hornets needed two attempts to snatch their late equalizer). Yet Liverpool aren’t as bad with set pieces as their fans might think.

On average, Premier League teams conceded 12.1 set piece goals in 2016-17. Klopp’s boys conceded … 12. It was the worst record of the league’s big six, but hardly catastrophic. Only five teams last season scored a higher proportion of their goals from set pieces than Watford did, too. They rely on them for goals.

Conceding set piece goals does seem to happen in bad performances by the Reds, though. Four of their six league defeats last term featured the opposition scoring a set piece goal. So why does it keep happening?

It’s too simplistic to simply blame the center-backs, but it’s not a bad place to start either. If we look at the set piece league goals Liverpool have conceded in the center of their box since the start of 2016-17, we can see who was at the scene of the crime most often.

Dejan Lovren leads the way (or plumbs the depths) by being present for 10 of the 11 goals conceded. Joel Matip is next in line with eight. Liverpool have only lost once when both have played, but they’ve also conceded a lot of set piece goals with them in the side, too.

In the same period, Spurs (for instance) have only conceded six goals from set pieces in their box, regardless of who has played. But whatever the reason, failing to defend dead balls cost the Reds yet again this weekend.

Lukaku carried on as usual against the Hammers

Romelu Lukaku must look at the fixture list when it’s released and home in immediately on West Ham. Even before this weekend he’d scored nine goals in 11 appearances against them, making them his favorite opponent. The Belgian weighed in with two more on Sunday as United ran out comfortable 4-0 winners.

Lukaku looks like he’ll be a fine replacement for Zlatan Ibrahimovic when viewed in terms of contribution to the team’s goals and assists tally.

But United will hope the former Evertonian is less wasteful in front of goal. United missed 50 big chances last season, which was the most in the division. Lukaku, the best forward in the league last season, had two such golden opportunities on Sunday. He scored them both, and essentially put the game beyond West Ham inside an hour. Unlike Arsenal and Liverpool, United were able to buck one of last season’s trends this weekend.

Next: Premier League season preview

United weren’t renowned for their dribbling last season, completing 10.6 per match on average, but they were more prolific this week. Against the Hammers, Pogba completed six and his new partner Matic weighed in with seven. Mourinho will hope similar form continues from his holding midfield pair. If they can glide past opponents in the center of the park with ease, they will then create chances or pass to players who can.

By winning 4-0, United are top of the table (for what little that’s worth at this point). They’ll be confident of backing that up in the first match of next weekend when they travel to face a Swansea side who conceded 29 shots this week. Expect the goals to keep flowing for the Red Devils.