NBA Butterfly Effect: What if LeBron James stayed in Miami in 2014?

The history of the NBA is a tangled web of what-ifs and could-have-beens. This week at The Step Back, we’re going to pull on some of those threads to alternate futures, focusing in on key turning points in the history of players, teams and the league itself, wondering how things could have been different. Welcome to Butterfly Effect Week.

In 2014, LeBron James (as told to Lee Jenkins) wrote, as he announced he was signing with the Cavaliers, “I always believed that I’d return to Cleveland and finish my career there. I just didn’t know when.” That essay signaled James’ second-most important free agency decision of his career, that he was leaving the Heat to sign with Cleveland. He went on to bring a championship to his home, go to three-straight NBA Finals and put the finishing touches on his NBA Mt. Rushmore sculpture.

But what if, after four-straight finals appearances, he didn’t leave? What if, instead, he chose to re-sign with the Heat that summer?

James’ move to Cleveland triggered an earthquake that shifted the tectonic plates of the NBA, and impacted the futures of several of the league’s best players, from Andrew Wiggins and Kevin Love to Kevin Durant. It would have prolonged one dynasty while impacting another. James deciding to stay in Miami would have been just as influential as him leaving.

Let’s imagine what that would have looked like…

From 2014 to 2015, the Heat go through some changes. They sign Danny Granger and Josh McRoberts prior to James’ decision, and draft UConn point guard Shabazz Napier. Richard Jefferson signs with the Heat (instead of the Cavs) and Ray Allen comes back for another season.

In the summer of 2014, another star is on the move. Love was traded to the Cavaliers for top overall pick Wiggins, but that doesn’t happen if James doesn’t open up Cleveland’s championship window. Instead, the Timberwolves trade Love to the Bulls — who were very much in the mix — in exchange for Taj Gibson and a young Jimmy Butler. (Seems like Butler was destined to end up in Minnesota.) That leaves Chicago with a still-recovering Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah and Love, and Cleveland continues their rebuild around Kyrie Irving, Dion Waiters, Wiggins, Anthony Bennett and Tristan Thompson.

During the 2014-15 season, the Hawks won 60 games, Goran Dragic forced his way out of Phoenix and the Warriors — led by first-year coach Steve Kerr — broke out as the league’s premier team. All of that still happens if James remains in Miami, except the Heat don’t trade for Dragic at the trade deadline. Instead of being below .500 and desperate, Miami is comfortably in the playoff picture with James. Rather, Dragic is traded to the Celtics, who choose him over reserve point guard Isaiah Thomas.

Also in February, Chris Bosh is diagnosed with blood clots on his lung, sidelining him for the season. The Heat call up Hassan Whiteside from the D-League. With James, Wade and a developing Whiteside, the Heat make their way back to the Eastern Conference Finals, defeating the Hawks, and advancing to the NBA Finals. Instead of a rematch against the Spurs, the Heat meet the Warriors.

The Warriors are unstoppable. Their Lineup of Death cannot be challenged, especially by a Heat team sans the versatile Bosh. Miami is swept. After getting dominated in two-straight finals series, and with Wade aging and Bosh’s uncertain playing future, James is forced to weigh his free agent options.

The league stands still as it awaits James’ 2015 decision. On his short list is Miami, where he’s been to five-straight finals, Cleveland, his home, and San Antonio, a team armed with cap space.

(The Spurs IRL used that cap space on LaMarcus Aldridge. Had James that summer considered his free agency, San Antonio would have gotten a meeting. James has stated his respect and admiration for Gregg Popovich several times. Popovich, in return, has made his fondness for James clear.)

James takes a meeting with the Spurs and he’s impressed. It’s clear he can win there. On the other hand, he could return home and try to win a championship for Cleveland. However, he’s just come face-to-face with the dominate Warriors and the Lineup of Death. Irving and Wiggins won’t be enough to compete. So James joins Kawhi Leonard and Tim Duncan in San Antonio to try to topple the Warriors.

The Warriors come out swinging in the 2015-16 season. They win 73 games and earn the top seed in the Western Conference. James and Co. win 60-plus, defeat Durant’s Thunder in the Western Conference Semifinals and meet the Warriors in the Western Conference Finals. With two of the best perimeter defenders in the game, the Spurs squeeze Golden State’s historic offense and advance to the NBA Finals, where they meet the 50-win Raptors. San Antonio sweeps the Raptors, and James wins his third championship.

That summer, Durant concludes he cannot possibly win a ring while James and Steph Curry reign in the West. However, the Eastern Conference, now without James, is wide open. Durant goes home, signing with the Wizards. In San Antonio, Duncan retires having won his sixth NBA championship. The Spurs pursue free agent Al Horford to replace him. Horford leaves “Spurs East” to join the actual Spurs. (Horford doesn’t sign in Boston because, remember, they don’t have Isaiah Thomas to help recruit him. Thomas never blows up into an MVP-caliber player for them and, instead, they are a middling team led by an aging Dragic.)

The 2016-17 season starts and there are three clear favorites to win the championship: The Spurs with James, Leonard and Horford, the Warriors with Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Dirk Nowitzki (who signed a one-year deal to chase a second ring) and the Wizards with Durant, John Wall and Bradley Beal. Washington peels off a 67-15 record as they set fire to the Eastern Conference and stroll into the NBA Finals.

In the West, Golden State is improved but still don’t have the singular greatness to defeat the Spurs. James and Leonard develop into today’s Jordan and Pippen. For the second-straight year, the Spurs defeat the Warriors in the Western Conference Finals. It’s James vs. Durant in the NBA Finals. The one who decided to chase a ring vs. the one who went home. The Spurs, however, are too much for Washington’s Three Branches in their first year. San Antonio wins in seven games, but these teams are poised to see each other again.

In 2017, the Warriors decide they need to make a change. No one on the team can go toe-to-toe with either James or Leonard. They missed out on Durant the year before, but they’re committed to finding a two-way players who can put them over the top. After refusing to trade him for Love years before, the Warriors send Thompson to the Pacers for Paul George. They also sign free agent Gordon Hayward.

Next: What if the Ubuntu Celtics stay healthy?

The Warriors and Wizards are each loaded with talent, but James has the benefit of one of the greatest coaches to ever roam the sidelines and a clear sidekick and successor. In Miami, James had a great coach and a stable organization. In Cleveland, he could have had the benefit of playing with great young players. In San Antonio, however, The King has found the best of both worlds.

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