2017-18 fantasy basketball preview: Houston Rockets

Over the coming weeks, we at FanSided will do a team-by-team breakdown of each NBA franchise’s fantasy prospects for the 2017-18 season. Let’s continue today with the Houston Rockets.

Fresh off an unexpected 55-season and a berth in the Western Conference semifinals, the Houston Rockets refused to stand pat this summer. While their offseason makeover bodes well for their chances of making another deep playoff run, it leaves fantasy basketball owners trudging into unfamiliar territory.

The biggest change came a few days before free agency, as Chris Paul agreed to opt into the final year of his contract so the Los Angeles Clippers could trade him to Houston for a package of players including Patrick Beverley, Lou Williams, Sam Dekker and Montrezl Harrell. Between Paul and two-time MVP runner-up James Harden, the Rockets now tout one of the league’s top backcourts, although it’s fair for fantasy owners to fret over CP3’s impact on Harden’s output and vice versa.

The Rockets weren’t done after acquiring Paul, though. Once free agency began, Houston used its non-taxpayer mid-level exception to bring in former Toronto Raptors forward PJ Tucker, whose three-and-D moxie will give head coach Mike D’Antoni more positional flexibility when constructing rotations this fall. The Rockets also signed Luc Mbah a Moute and Tarik Black for bench depth, although neither figure to have much fantasy relevance in 2017-18.

Which Rockets players should fantasy owners target with early-, mid- and late-round picks, and who should be left on the waiver wire? Let’s take a look.

Early-round picks

James Harden, SG: Last season, I ranked Harden first on my predraft big board. With Paul now alongside him, however, The Beard is facing a dogfight just to make it into the top five. Despite putting up career-best numbers across the board last season — 29.1 points on 44.0 percent shooting, a league-leading 11.2 assists, 8.1 rebounds, 3.2 3-pointers and 1.5 steals in 36.4 minutes across 81 games — Harden finished as the seventh-ranked player on a per-game basis in nine-category leagues, largely due to his whopping 464 turnovers on the year. Though he should cut down on those giveaways this season with Paul absorbing more of the ball-handling duties, his assists likewise figure to drop as well. Harden is still a no-brainer first-round pick, but the likes of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, Karl-Anthony Towns and Kawhi Leoanrd will be difficult to supplant.

Chris Paul, PG: Pace is one of the most important advanced metrics for fantasy basketball purposes, and Paul may be the poster boy of that in 2017-18. Last season, the Rockets ranked third league-wide in pace, per NBA.com, averaging more than four additional possessions per 48 minutes than the 17th-ranked Clippers. While Harden might siphon some fantasy value away from Paul, the increased number of offensive opportunities for him should help alleviate that. Otherwise, Paul is about as steady as they come for a second-round pick, as you can expect somewhere in the neighborhood of 18 points, nine assists, four rebounds, two steals and two triples per game. He slips a few spots relative to where he would have ranked if he remained a Clipper, but he’s still a safe pick in the mid- to late second round.

Mid-round picks

Trevor Ariza, SF: Ariza rarely erupts for flashy all-around numbers, but he more often than not makes major contributions in both steals and 3-pointers. Since arriving in Houston prior to the 2014-15 season, the UCLA product has been a steady fantasy factor with somewhere around 12 points, five rebounds, two assists, two steals and north of two triples in 35 minutes per game. The only concern with Ariza’s outlook this season is the arrival of Tucker, who could cut into his workload somewhat. Whereas Ariza finished as the 39th-ranked player on a per-game basis in nine-category formats last season, he’s more early sixth-round material this year for those in 10-team leagues.

Clint Capela, C: If Capela’s free-throw percentage continues to trend in the right direction, he has the makings of a breakout fantasy stud in 2017-18. Last year, he put up career-best numbers across the board — 12.6 points on 64.3 percent shooting, 8.1 rebounds and 1.2 blocks in just 23.9 minutes — to finish as the 73rd-ranked player on a per-game basis in nine-category leagues. The Swiss big man also knocked down 53.1 percent of his attempts at the charity stripe, a marked upgrade from the 37.9 percent he hit a season prior. With Paul and Harden feeding him a steady diet of lobs, Capela could be in line for a 15-10-1.5 nightly average if D’Antoni nudges his minutes up, making him a strong target in the sixth or seventh rounds.

Eric Gordon, SG: Aside from perhaps Capela, no Houston player emerged as a bigger winner from the team’s offseason overhaul than Gordon. The 28-year-old had a resurgent campaign under D’Antoni en route to the 2016-17 Sixth Man of the Year award, as he chipped in per-game averages of 16.2 points on 40.6 percent shooting, 3.3 treys, 2.7 rebounds and 2.5 assists in just 31.0 minutes across 75 games. While Gordon finished as the season as the 93rd-ranked player on a per-game basis in nine-category leagues, he ranked 83rd overall prior to Williams’ arrival at the trade deadline. With Williams now gone, Gordon can reclaim his role as unquestioned sixth man and again begin raining in a torrent of triples, much to the delight of fantasy owners.

Late-round picks

Ryan Anderson, PF: There’s a non-zero chance Anderson is donning another uniform come the beginning of the season, as the Rockets have dangled him in multiteam deals all summer while trying to figure out a way to land Carmelo Anthony in a trade. Fantasy owners should hope Houston can’t find a taker, however, as he has no better path to fantasy relevance than he does with D’Antoni and Co. Anderson is the definition of a low-upside 3-point specialist, having banged home 2.8 triples per game last season while providing little else of note to fantasy owners. That long-range output still helped him finish as the 106th-ranked player on a per-game basis in nine-category formats, though, which makes him a worthy 11th- or 12th-round target if he remains in Houston.

PJ Tucker, SF: Tucker is shaping up to be a sneaky high-upside late-round pick so long as he gets the green light to fire away from deep in Houston. The 32-year-old has never attempted more than 3.2 3-point attempts per game in a single season before, but seven (!) Rockets players eclipsed that mark alone last year. If Tucker slides into the role Dekker previously occupied, he’s likely looking at somewhere around 25 minutes and four to five long-range bombs per game. Considering he also should chip in at least one steal per night, he’ll make for a strong pick outside of the top 100.

Waiver-wire fodder

Isaiah Taylor, PG

Bobby Brown, PG

Luc Mbah a Moute, SF

Troy Williams, SF

Nene Hilario, PF

Tarik Black, PF

Chinanu Onuaku, PF

Zhou Qi, C

Sleepers/Busts

Sleeper: PJ Tucker

Bust: Ryan Anderson

Next: Every NBA team's greatest draft pick of all time

Other team breakdowns

All average draft position info via FantasyPros. All rankings via Basketball Monster are based on nine-category leagues.

Home/Fantasy Basketball