The New England Patriots have adjusted to injuries better than any NFL team over the years. One player they couldn’t replace? Julian Edelman.
On Friday night, Julian Edelman made another catch. Against the Detroit Lions, the 31-year-old slot receiver darted upfield, putting New England in prime position to score another touchdown. Then, without warning, his left knee gave way. Edelman crumpled to the turf. His season was over with a torn ACL.
With Edelman gone, the Patriots are left to pick up the proverbial pieces, something they have done better than any other sports franchise this century. Still, the loss of their prolific pass-catcher stings more than most. In fact, an argument can be made that Edelman is the most important player on New England’s roster, save Tom Brady.
In the offseason, the Patriots acquired Brandin Cooks, a burner who should stretch defenses vertically. It was thought that with Edelman working underneath and Rob Gronkowski going down the seam, it would be overwhelming for even the best defenses. Now, without that horizontal stretching factor, things have changed.
A good defense can roll coverage over the top of Cooks while bracketing Gronkowski, leaving one-on-one matchups for Chris Hogan, Danny Amendola and Malcolm Mitchell. With all due respect to the latter trio, none have the ability to create a mismatch like Edelman.
None of this is to suggest that New England now has a pop-gun passing game. The Patriots still have Brady, an elite tight end and one of the best deep threats in the league. New England will still roll up points, but when it faces the best, there could be more stagnation than normal.
To understand the full impact of Edelman’s injury, it’s important to look back over the past two seasons.
In 2015, Edelman missed the final seven games of the regular season. In its first nine contests, New England averaged 33.7 points per game. Without Edelman, the Patriots scored 23.1 points per game.
Furthermore, Gronknowski played in 15 games that season. With Edelman alongside him, the All-Pro averaged 5.4 catches and 89.5 yards per game. Without his slot sidekick, Gronkowski was limited to 3.8 receptions and 61.7 yards per game. In 2015, the best tight end in football had five 100-yard games. All came when Edelman was active.
Gronkowski gets the bigger headlines, but Edelman is the more critical piece. Consider how the Patriots played last year after losing their hulking tight end to a back injury. Here’s a snippet from my column a month ago, breaking down the statistical difference with and without Gronkowski.
"Rob Gronkowski was inactive for eight regular-season games. With Gronkowski, New England averaged 26 points and 372 yards per game. Without him, it notched 29 points and 400 yards per game. In the playoffs, without the biggest mismatch in football, those numbers jumped to 35 points and 451 yards."
Why did the numbers pick up? Edelman. With Gronkowski in the lineup, Edelman was good for 5.25 catches and 49.8 yards per regular-season contest. As the main attraction, the former college quarterback caught seven passes for 88.5 yards.
Finally, over the past two seasons, the Patriots are 27-3, including regular and postseason games, when Edelman is in the lineup. They are 3-4 when he isn’t.
Having Cooks should help to some degree. Only 23 years old, Cooks enters his fourth season with a pair of 1,100-yard campaigns under his belt. Perhaps most importantly for New England, Cooks has played all 32 games over that span. The Patriots need Cooks to maintain his health, considering Amendola and Gronkowski have combined for only one full season between them since 2012.
New England remains the favorite to win the Super Bowl. It has the best head coach-quarterback combination in NFL history, and enjoys a pair of explosive offensive weapons. The defense is relatively weak up front, but the secondary remains stout and with the schemes of Bill Belichick, the unit is always formidable.
Still, the loss of Edelman takes a chunk of the Patriots’ perceived invincibility. Now, the Patriots are less dangerous and only a Gronkowski injury away from being very limited, something thought to be unfathomable only a week ago.
Power rankings
Top 10 secondaries of 2017
1. Seattle Seahawks
2. Denver Broncos
3. New York Giants
4. Kansas City Chiefs
5. New England Patriots
6. Minnesota Vikings
7. Jacksonville Jaguars
8. Atlanta Falcons
9. Baltimore Ravens
10. Arizona Cardinals
Quotable
"“It felt good, you know. I was looking forward to it,” Peterson remarked after the game, per ESPN’s Mike Triplett. “I haven’t played in the preseason for a long time, so it was good to get out there. I think I had maybe five or six carries, 12 or 13 plays. It felt good to move around, to get hit and kind of get those first reps out of the way."
– New Orleans Saints running back Adrian Peterson on his first preseason action of 2017
After 10 years with the Vikings, Peterson is hoping for a happy ending to his career with the Saints. In his first action in black and gold, the future Hall of Famer had six carries for 15 yards, showcasing a bit of power in those 32-year-old legs.
If the Saints want to challenge the Falcons in the NFC South, Peterson’s status could be key. He isn’t expected to be who he once was in Minnesota, but an able compliment to Mark Ingram may prove vital.
Podcast
Last time on Stacking The Box, we had Eric Edholm come on to talk about why the Tennessee Titans are an ascending team, and if the Seattle Seahawks can survive the loss of George Fant. I also dove deep into the plight of the Minnesota Vikings, and much more.
This week, I go around the league and break down what went wrong and who stepped up for each team. Plus, the AFC is beginning to show itself. What should we expect from a conference that is overshadowed by the Patriots?
Random stat
In 2008, the Detroit Lions swept their preseason games. They beat the Bills, Browns, Bengals and Giants before becoming the first team in NFL history to go 0-16. In other words, don’t believe in exhibition records.
Info learned this week
1. Injuries pile up over weekend
Other than Edelman, there were some notable names forced to leave early. On Friday night, the Kansas City Chiefs watched Spencer Ware go down with a non-contact knee injury, losing him for the year with a torn PCL. The Buffalo Bills are also holding their collective breath after Tyrod Taylor sustained a concussion in Baltimore.
In Dallas, the Cowboys and Oakland Raiders suffered blows of varying degree. Dallas linebacker Anthony Hitchens has been lost for two months with a knee injury, while the Raiders have placed corner David Amerson in the concussion protocol. Amerson also endured a concussion last year.
Finally, the Chicago Bears lost wide receiver Cam Meredith for the season with a broken leg on Sunday afternoon. Meredith was carted off in an air cast after an ugly-looking play in which his left leg appeared to snap. Meredith is an up-and-coming receiver for the Bears who had 66 catches for 888 yards last year.
2. Deshaun Watson struggles in New Orleans
On Saturday, the Houston Texans were shut out by the New Orleans Saints, 13-0. Watson, who came into the contest at the end of the second quarter to relieve Tom Savage, went 11-of-21 for 116 yards and an interception.
Watson scuffled mightily throughout the game. He only threw one pick but could have easily thrown two or three more. The decision-making was poor and often too slow, leading to broken routes and multiple defenders in the area. Watson’s athleticism is obvious, but so is the fact that he shouldn’t start at any point in 2017.
3. Battle of Los Angeles goes to Chargers
After looking good last week, Jared Goff regressed in a 21-19 loss to the Chargers. The Rams’ first-overall pick from a year ago threw a brutal pick to Jason Verrett and fumbled on a return touchdown for Melvin Ingram. Goff needs to be better if he wants to justify his lofty draft position.
On the other sideline, the Chargers should be thrilled. They have a dynamic pass-rushing duo in Joey Bosa and Ingram, and a pair of quality corners in Casey Hayward and Verrett. If they can stay healthy, and if the offensive line isn’t a total mess, the Chargers should challenge for a playoff spot.
4. Eagles acquire additional help in secondary
After trading for Ronald Darby two weeks ago, the Philadelphia Eagles added another defensive back. Philadelphia traded Terrance Brooks to the Jets for Dexter McDougald, swapping some spare parts.
On the surface, the deal is of little importance. Neither player should make a big difference, but it speaks to the larger concern in Philadelphia about the secondary. Jay Cutler carved up the Eagles on Thursday, with the Dolphins’ first team scoring 21 points. Philadelphia should be terrific in the front seven, but to truly contend with the Cowboys and Giants in the NFC East, the pass coverage must improve.
The Eagles visit the Washington Redskins in Week 1, a team that should test that group extensively. Washington can spread Philadelphia out with the combination of Jordan Reed, Jamison Crowder and Terrelle Pryor.
5. Panthers, Buccaneers trending in opposite directions
Preseason standings are for chumps, but you can learn from certain instances. For example, Jameis Winston has struggled throughout his career with bad choices that lead to turnovers. On Saturday against the Cleveland Browns, Winston threw a horrendous red zone interception to Jabrill Peppers. Winston played well otherwise, but that turnover is emblematic of why the Buccaneers might be held back in 2017.
Conversely, the Carolina Panthers looked like a rejuvenated team against Jacksonville. Carolina only had its first-team offense on the field for one drive, but the interior of the offensive line looked strong and healthy, while first-round pick Christian McCaffrey continues to impress. Kelvin Benjamin, who was overweight in OTAs, appears to have put that issue behind him.
Carolina and Tampa Bay are two of the biggest wild cards in the league. One looks to be back on track, while another continues to search for its groove.
History lesson
The 1961 Green Bay Packers hold the record for most Hall of Famers on a single team with 11, not including Vince Lombardi. They might make it an even dozen this coming year, with Jerry Kramer being named a finalist by the Senior Committee.
Kramer, who played right guard from 1958-68 in Green Bay, is arguably the greatest player of all-time not already enshrined in Canton. The Idaho native is the only player named to the NFL’s 50th Anniversary Team not already wearing a gold jacket. I wrote about his case extensively in 2014, centering around his daughter’s quest to see him make the ultimate speech.
Hopefully, that egregious error is corrected. Kramer is not only deserving, he is a five-time NFL champion and often the lead blocker on the most famous play in league history, the Packer Sweep.
Parting shot
The Browns won’t win many games this season, but for the first time in forever, they are trending in the right direction. Cleveland should see significant improvement from its 1-15 finish last year, chiefly due to DeShone Kizer and his continued development.
Taken in the second round, many believed Kizer would be a work in progress who initially saw behind Brock Osweiler and/or Cody Kessler. Instead, Kizer has legitimately won the starting job. The former Golden Domer has plenty to learn — he stares down primary reads too much and takes unnecessary, aggressive risks — but the talent is evident.
Defensively, the front seven is beginning to shine with Myles Garrett, Christian Kirksey and Jamie Collins showing the way. The 2017 season will still be a long one in terms of the standings, but the fine folks on Lake Erie should take heart in the direction of a once rudderless franchise.