Jaylen Brown vs. Jayson Tatum: How high do their ceilings go?
Where do we draw the line between potential and fulfillment? The answer to this quandary is a key to sports, but especially team sports and especially those with a draft system, as each of the four largest in the US have.
It certainly seems to have informed Celtics GM Danny Ainge’s decision to go through on a trade with his team’s biggest conference rivals at the moment, the Cavaliers, which was to send All-Star point guard Isaiah Thomas, forward Jae Crowder, European prospect Ante Zizic and an unprotected 2018 first-round draft pick originally belonging to the abhorrent — but steadily improving — Nets for the Cavs’ All-Star point guard, the apparently disgruntled Kyrie Irving.
Zooming in on that spectrum of potential, however, may soon be the sticking point on whether Ainge follows through on a potentially renegotiated version of that trade. Given the tenuous state of Thomas’ hip, the Cavs are reportedly asking for additional assets — namely, perhaps, one of either Jalen Brown or Jayson Tatum. Should Cleveland push for more, and Ainge acquiesce, he will have a difficult choice to make.
On the one hand, Brown has only a year of NBA experience under his belt. He is raw, and wayward stubbornness generally outshone flashes of brilliance in his rookie campaign. His per-game numbers (6.6 points, 2.8 rebounds and less than one assist on 45.4 percent from the field) were nothing special, and his advanced stats did not reflect a much prettier portrait. For all his willingness to be a bulldog, he sometimes found himself stuck in the doghouse, blankly staring at passing mailmen.
Still, he is young, as he will turn just 21 on October 24. He has time to go along with his still-filling NBA frame at 6-foot-7 and 225 pounds. With a noticeably ferocious temperament on defense, for which he is already gaining something of a reputation, Brown is as prototypical a project 3 as one could envision in a post-LeBron, positionless NBA. On a team packed to the gills with promising wings, Brown seems as primed as any to step up, particularly if the future is Crowder-less.
Then, there is Tatum, the 19-year-old, No. 3 overall pick out of Duke who plays the same position as Brown but is more offensive-minded. Depending on whom you believe, Tatum’s ceiling projects as anywhere from Allan Houston and Danny Granger on the lower side to Carmelo Anthony on the higher.
An isolation specialist, Tatum was made to just get buckets, employing a wide array of stepbacks, fadeaways and jab steps to make the most of the high release point on his jump shot. At 6-foot-8 and 205 pounds, Tatum’s frame is gaunt, for now, but it will fill out and his nearly 7-foot wingspan gives him a distinct edge on the glass, where he can corral a rebound and start a transition on his own. His scoring is NBA-ready, which could prove vital for a Celtics team that would then be without the services of Thomas.
Like many prodigious offensive minds, though, Tatum sometimes suffers on the other end from a lack of awareness, and his slim physique will limit his effectiveness against opponents anyway, at least for a little while. Even on offense, he is most comfortable in the midrange, the least efficient area from which to score, and he has a propensity to settle for long 2s. Bigger defenders will prevent him from getting to the rim, no matter how many gorgeous pirouettes he choreographs on his way there.
Next: Nylon Calculus: Examining how Kyrie Irving will be used in Boston
Skill sets, stylistic differences and an all-important single year of NBA experience separate Brown and Tatum. That year of NBA data, however, could prove to be the difference. At its most basic, Brown and Tatum are potentially game-changing pieces on opposite sides of the floor. Danny Ainge would be wise to assess the considerable talent of his cupboard of assets before letting either of these guys go.