NFL preview 2017: Atlanta Falcons

Last year saw the Atlanta Falcons reach Super Bowl LI. It was not the result the Falcons wanted. Can they get back in 2017 or is this team poised to struggle?

The score, 28-3, will be forever associated with the Atlanta Falcons and their Super Bowl LI collapse to the New England Patriots. Atlanta had a 25-point lead deep into the third quarter. The city’s first Lombardi Trophy was within reach and the Falcons simply ran out of gas. It was the greatest season in franchise history, but could not have ended on a more sour note.

Atlanta spent most of the fall making the talking heads into believers of its on-the-rise football team. It had been a long three years since Atlanta last hosted an NFC Championship Game. Instead of blowing a 17-point lead at home like Mike Smith’s team did in 2012, Dan Quinn’s team throttled Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers in the Georgia Dome’s final game.

Even if the Super Bowl collapse still has most of America laughing at the Dirty Birds, football fans in general have an appreciation for this team heading into 2017. Unless you root for an NFC South rival, it’s difficult to argue that Atlanta isn’t the favorite to repeat as division champs for the first time in history.

Atlanta boasts arguably the most complete roster in the NFC. The Dallas Cowboys are adept on offense and the same could be said for the division rival Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Defensive-minded teams like the New York Giants and the Seattle Seahawks should also be towards the top of the NFC hierarchy, along with the Packers of course.

However, Atlanta’s combination of offense, defense and special teams should have the Falcons in line to win multiple playoff games this winter. In short, their Super Bowl window is open for this year and next. It is time for Quinn and reigning NFL MVP Matt Ryan to bring home a Lombardi Trophy.

Last year, Atlanta had six of its players make the Pro Bowl: Ryan, running back Devonta Freeman, wide receiver Julio Jones, center Alex Mack, outside linebacker Vic Beasley Jr. and placekicker Matt Bryant. Not to say all six will receive Pro Bowl nods again, but all will be favorites to receive another trip.

Offensively, this team is loaded. Losing former offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan to the San Francisco 49ers isn’t great, but Quinn knew it was only a matter of time before Shanahan was leading a team of his own. Seeing Ryan’s quarterbacks coach Matt LaFleur join the Los Angeles Rams as Sean McVay’s offensive coordinator isn’t ideal, but it’s probably a better entry point for a first-time coordinator.

Taking the reigns of this Falcons offense is former Washington Huskies and USC Trojans head coach Steve Sarkisian. Like Quinn, Sarkisian is one of Pete Carroll’s greatest disciples. Personal issues briefly derailed his coaching career, but Sarkisian tends to make an immediate impact wherever he goes.

The question is how quickly Ryan and Sarkisian bond. It wasn’t smooth sailing for Ryan and Shanahan in 2015, as Ryan struggled with the transition from Dirk Koetter’s Air Coryell to Shanahan’s West Coast system. It’s fine though this year, as Sarkisian will run a West Coast offense similar to what Shanahan did the last two years.

Cool side note: All three of Ryan’s former offensive coordinators are current NFL head coaches and decent ones at that: Mike Mularkey with the Tennessee Titans, Koetter with the Buccaneers and Shanahan with the 49ers.

Overall on offense, would should expect a slight regression to the mean from Atlanta. So instead of having a top-three offense all-time in NFL history, look for the Falcons to be somewhere in the top-eight among 2017 NFL teams.

If there is one weakness in the Atlanta offense, that would have to be at right guard. Chris Chester battled hard last year, but was mostly too banged up. He retired after a long NFL career and a good two-year stint in Atlanta. Looking to replace him are Ben Garland and Wes Schweitzer. Rookie Sean Harlow might be in the mix, too. By nitpicking at right guard, all that says is that Atlanta is a juggernaut offensively.

On the other side of the ball, we can expect a good job from the entire defense. After seeing the defense blow a 28-3 lead, Atlanta fired former defensive coordinator Richard Smith on the spot. The untold tale of the Falcons’ defensive improvements in the second half largely hinged on Quinn taking a more aggressive role in implementing defensive strategy. In essence, Smith was a lame duck with Quinn running his defense.

Beasley probably won’t lead the league in sacks again. Adding rookie Takkarist McKinley out of UCLA could be a great player opposite of Beasley for a long time. Hopefully Atlanta brings back veteran Dwight Freeney later on to be an on-field coach for these two.

Dontari Poe joins an improved defensive line with the likes of defensive tackle Grady Jarrett and defensive end Brooks Reed. This is Quinn’s area of expertise, so keep that in mind. Jeff Ulbrich will have his linebacker group humming, as Deion Jones emerges as a star in this league. Keep an eye on rookie Duke Riley out of LSU.

Finally, Atlanta will lean on its secondary again defensively, as it is the Falcons’ deepest defensive unit. Former defensive backs coach Marquand Manuel is the new defensive coordinator. He has great players he can count on in cornerbacks Robert Alford and Desmond Trufant, as well as last year’s first-round pick in strong safety Keanu Neal.

Overall, Atlanta is a legitimate Super Bowl contender and might be the favorite to come out of the NFC again in 2017. If this team fails to win a playoff game, it would be considered a disappointment.

X-Factor

The execution of the running game. While the Shanahan West Coast was a delight to watch when it was cooking, it was more predicated on the run that you’d think. Simply put, the Shanahan zone blocking scheme gets yards in the ground game, regardless of personnel.

Sarkisian may be a gifted passing game guru, but what are his tendencies in running game? He played in a pass-first offense in college for LaVell Edwards at BYU. Washington and USC were solid in the passing games during his coaching tenure in the Pac-12.

Atlanta has the horses in the back field of Freeman and Tevin Coleman to keep the ground game excellent. The Falcons have great running block personnel up front in Mack, Andy Levite, Jake Matthews and Ryan Schraeder.

The biggest concern is if Sarkisian shares a ground game philosophy of Koetter or former St. Louis Rams coach Mike Martz. If it doesn’t yield dividends immediately, Koetter and Martz would abandon it for the rest of the game. The more times Ryan has to attempt 50 passes a game, the worse it is for the Falcons’ chances to orchestrate a deep playoff run.

Best Case

This is obvious: win the Super Bowl over the Patriots in a revenge game in Minneapolis. Though the Falcons have a first-place schedule, it is possible that this team could be as good as 13-3, win the NFC South walking away and have the road to the Super Bowl come through brand-new Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

For that to happen, the offense’s regression can’t fall out of the league’s top five. To counterbalance that, the defense becomes a top-12 bunch that crushes the opposition in turnover differential.

If the 2017 Falcons closely resemble the 2016 Falcons,  there is an outside shot than Ryan wins back-to-back MVPs and somebody on defense challenges for Defensive Player of the Year. Should everything go right for the Falcons, this could be a team that smokes an AFC juggernaut in Super Bowl LII like the Seahawks did to the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl XLVIII at MetLife Stadium.

Worst Case

Barring an absurd number of injuries, this team could fall back to 9-7, maybe even 8-8 and miss the NFC playoffs entirely. The Falcons will surely be in the NFC playoff mix, but Carolina and Tampa Bay could each take a game they shouldn’t from the Falcons in divisional play.

Atlanta would then have to go 1-2 against last year’s first-place teams in the NFC in Dallas, Green Bay and Seattle. A loss at home in Week 2 on Monday Night Football against the Packers would be a terrible omen to the start of the season. In essence, this year’s group may resemble the 2015 team far too much.

Nobody in Atlanta is getting the ax and the city will support this team no matter what happens this fall. This team isn’t going to crater like the 2016 Panthers post-Super Bowl because Ryan and is too accurate to play like Cam Newton did last year. The worst part in all of this is Atlanta gives off the vibe of a Detroit Lions or Washington Redskins heading into 2018: middle of the pack, but not going to win a playoff game should the Falcons qualify.

Final Word

It’s hard to see Atlanta as anything less than a top-five seed in the NFC next year. This team will lose a few tough games, most likely on the road in Foxborough and in Seattle. However, the Falcons feel to be a double-digit win team that can get a first-round bye.

Next: Top 10 Super Bowls of all-time

Getting back to the Super Bowl will be hard, but at minimum, Atlanta should be playing in the NFC Divisional Round and probably in the 2017 NFC Championship Game. This is a top-eight team in football, as the Falcons are one of the teams that would not shock anybody if they are the ones to win Super Bowl LII.