NFL preview 2017: New Orleans Saints

After three straight years of 7-9, will it be more of the same for the New Orleans Saints or does this team have one more big playoff run left in them?

The first six years of the Sean Payton era of New Orleans Saints football (2006-11) were simply transcendent. In the wake of Hurricane Katrina, the 2006 Saints were able to overcome so much adversity and make it to the 2006 NFC Championship in his first year as head coach.

Did it help to have Drew Brees as quarterback? Without question, as he is one of the most prolific passers the NFL has ever seen. New Orleans would make the NFC playoffs four out of those first six years. Then BountyGate happened and the Saints have not been the same.

Since the scandal which saw Payton suspended for the entire 2012 NFL season, the Saints have managed to reach the NFC playoffs just once back in 2013. After three straight seasons of 7-9, might we have seen the best the Brees/Payton duo can offer the Saints?

New Orleans has become almost cliché in the last three years. While the Saints offense is prolific, they can’t stop anybody on defense. Outside of that one year where they were ridiculously fortunate in the turnover department during the Super Bowl run in 2009, this has not been a strong defensive culture in the Big Easy.

New Orleans does have a star pass rusher in defensive end Cameron Jordan. If he played on a better defense, we’d talk about him more. He has top-10 talent coming off the edge in football. The Saints have been essentially a turnstile in the secondary, but strides have been made schematically with Dennis Allen as defensive coordinator.

In short, the Saints can put up any number of points on any defense playing in a dome. However, they can’t keep the opposition out of the end zone and this isn’t the same team away from the Mercedes-Benz Superdome.

On paper, who would want a handful of Saints offensive players on their fantasy team? The offensive line is underrated, as is the ground game. New Orleans has surprisingly won the Jimmy Graham/Max Unger trade. Graham hasn’t factored into the Seattle passing game, while Unger has been the anchor New Orleans coveted on the offensive line.

While receivers like Kenny Stills and Brandin Cooks didn’t get to play out their rookie contracts after being drafted by the Saints, New Orleans is confident in young players like Michael Thomas and Willie Snead to carry the torch in the passing game.

Where the Saints could be even better on offense this year in is the ground game. Could they be getting a re-energized Adrian Peterson? The greatest tailback in Minnesota Vikings history now plays for the Saints. He’s past 30 years of age, but he is a physical specimen unlike any other in recent memory we’ve seen from a running back. If he goes off, this could be the best offense in the division.

Add in rookie running back Alvin Kamara out of Tennessee and the Saints could have the rushing attack that will set up the vertical passing game so marvelously for Brees. This Saints offense has the potential to be the best in football, if everything clicks for this team.

What it really comes down to is if this team is even remotely competitive on defense. Who will step up to join Jordan among the NFL elite defensively? New Orleans used its No. 11 overall pick on former Ohio State Buckeyes cornerback Marshon Lattimore.

While it was surprising to see him fall out of the top-10, he did have hamstring surgery in Columbus. Medical issues might have knocked this blue-chip talent down a begin the draft process.

The Saints traded back in to the first-round to take offensive tackle Ryan Ramczyk out of Wisconsin. This was an absurdly weak offensive line class, but Ramczyk could be the best of the bunch right out of the gate.

Other guys like Garret Boles and Cam Robinson might have more upside, but Ramczyk played in a pro-style offense in college and will be joining potentially a top-10 offensive line in New Orleans. In short, the Saints aren’t going to put Ramczyk in less than advantageous situations along the offensive line.

So the Saints have the offense, the home-field advantage and the coaching to hang tough in the deep NFC South. However, this might be the one team that doesn’t qualify for the NFC Playoffs this year. Expect the NFC South to send at least two teams into the playoffs, the division winner and a wild card team.

The arch-rival Atlanta Falcons are the reigning NFC Champions. Carolina is only a year removed from getting to the Super Bowl. Even the Tampa Bay Buccaneers feel like a team that has been steadily on the climb with Jameis Winston as their franchise quarterback.

This is the best quarterbacked division in football. Matt Ryan and Cam Newton are your last two NFL MVPs. Winston won a Heisman as a redshirt freshman at Florida State in 2013. Let’s not forget that Brees is the only one of the bunch that has already punched his ticket to Canton. All four have their shots to eventually make it there.

The Saints will be able to win some games in NFC South play they probably shouldn’t have. Don’t expect them to get swept by the Falcons again. Carolina tends to struggle playing in New Orleans. Tampa Bay has not found a home field advantage, despite knocking on the door for playoff contention.

No division turns over champions quite like the NFC South does. New Orleans is honestly the least likely of the four teams to win the NFC South, but could totally make the playoffs with a 9-7 or 10-6 record as a wild card team. If it does end up being a fourth-straight season of 7-9, it might be time to pull the plug on the Brees/Payton marriage. It’s been good while it lasted, but four years of mediocrity won’t cut it any longer.

X-Factor

The Saints’ x-factor would probably have to be Peterson. If he has anything left in the tank, that would be huge for the Saints offense. It would take pressure of Mark Ingram and give Kamara a solid mentor for how to succeed in the NFL long-term.

Sure, Peterson offers next to nothing as a receiver out of the backfield. However, he can still be used as a battering ram to break down the opposing defensive fronts and pound it in during goal-line situations.

Brees may still have another year or two of elite football left in the tank, but the better his supporting cast around him will be, the better he will be. We don’t know who long the band will stay together in New Orleans, so the Saints better make 2017 count. Otherwise, we’re looking at a rebuilding team to close out the decade in a brutally tough division.

Best Case

The Saints are done with 7-9 B.S. They flip the script and go at least 9-7 and get back into the NFC Playoffs. In a strange year in the NFC South, Atlanta is still hungover from the Super Bowl, Newton continues to pout and Winston’s Buccaneers just aren’t ready. New Orleans wins the division at 10-6 and gets the No. 3 seed.

The Saints would get to host one of those three division rivals or an Arizona Cardinals team on wild card weekend. It comes down to the wire, but the Saints win a game on a last-second field goal by Wil Lutz to reach the divisional round. For a shining moment, there is a bit of Super Bowl buzz with this team.

Too bad they run into a buzz saw in the divisional round in the form of a Dallas Cowboys, a Green Bay Packers or a Seattle Seahawks. If it’s one of the latter two opponents, New Orleans gets annihilated in the snow/rain and that’s the end of the Brees/Payton era in New Orleans. A beautiful ride she was…

Worst Case

The fourth time is not the charm and the Saints go 7-9…again. New Orleans finds a way to pull off three signature wins this season, two of which against division rivals. By Halloween, NFL fans think the Saints might be back to good. Then, the Saints turn into a pumpkin like November Brian Hoyer.

The Saints go 2-6 in the second half of the season and it becomes apparent that it’s time to make a change. New Orleans defense looks as toothless as a Thanksgiving Jack-o-lantern that has been festering in the rain because who throws out a pumpkin when the spice is flowing at Starbucks?

Payton is collecting them checks, knowing that he’s not coming back. Instead of it being a classy send off for the best coach in franchise history, he leaves in the middle of the night Bobby Petrino style to replace the guy Petrino replaced in Atlanta a decade ago. Your new UCLA Bruins coach, Sean Payton. Your new Saints coach…???

Final Word

The Saints will play with a sense of urgency in the second half. Those in the building will realize that this team’s days of being competitive are numbered. Just getting back into the NFC Playoffs would be a great season for this team.

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Fate might have it that the Saints and Buccaneers are clashing for a playoff berth in Week 17 in Tampa. Is it .500, slightly better or 7-9 B.S. again? That’s up for this team to decide. The floor is high, but the ceiling is low.