The first week of the NFL season is just around the corner and that means its time to hit the DraftKings NFL lobby.
With a variety of contests to play in, including head-to-head, 50/50s, double ups, multipliers and guaranteed prize pool tournaments (GPPs), you’ll have different strategies for different contest types. What you’ll be forced to do with all lineups is find underpriced players who have potential for a big return.
What you won’t find here are elite players with big price tags. Guys like Aaron Rodgers and Antonio Brown aren’t going to have too much trouble putting up solid fantasy numbers on a weekly basis. I know it. You know it. Most DFS players know it. The players I’ll be including are the ones who might fly under the radar, the high risk, high reward players, or the lowly owned guys.
Here are my DraftKings NFL bargain plays to kick off the 2017 season.
DraftKings NFL Bargain Plays: Week 1 – Quarterbacks
Carson Palmer ($6,000) vs. DET
Palmer is coming off of a disappointing 2016 season. The good news is that he returns to an offense with the same weapons that finished sixth in offensive points per game (26.1). The Cardinals are an elite offense going up against a porous Lions defense that allowed the second most passing touchdowns (33) and highest quarterback rating (106.5) last season. Palmer has the weapons and the matchup to get great value out of his $6,000 price tag, which ranks him in the middle of the pack for quarterbacks.
Carson Wentz ($5,300) vs. WAS
The rookie out of North Dakota State showed glimmers of solid quarterback play in his first year in the NFL last season. His performances weakened as the season progressed, but not all blame can be directed at the young quarterback. The Eagles receivers finished with the second most drops (31). The addition of Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith gives Wentz an improved supporting cast to work with as he develops into his sophomore season. The matchup between the Eagles and the Redskins should be a shootout with the Vegas over-under line at 48. For $5,3000, taking Wentz could allow you to cash in at other positions.
Brian Hoyer ($5,100) vs. CAR
Hoyer will be facing the Panthers at home to start the NFL season. Carolina was an average defense at best last year, allowing 16.6 fantasy points per game (FPPG) to opposing quarterbacks. While Hoyer has played the role of sporadic starter over the past three seasons, it is difficult to analyze the consistency (or inconsistency) of his numbers. In the four games last season that Hoyer started and completed with Chicago, he threw for six touchdowns, zero interceptions and posted an average yards per game of 329.5. Sure, four games is a small sample size, but the 49ers should be trailing in this one and Hoyer’s cheap price could enable you to pay up for David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell.
DraftKings NFL Bargain Plays: Week 1 – Running Backs
Todd Gurley ($6,000) vs. IND
I know, $6,000 isn’t exactly the biggest bargain play, but when the top running backs are going for $9,400 and $9,800, Gurley makes for a good investment. Simply put, the Colts aren’t going to be very good this season. Both Andrew Luck and Vontae Davis are suffering from injuries, hurting Indianapolis on both sides of the ball. As Gurley looks to bounce back from an underwhelming 2016 season, this is an ideal matchup to get off on the right foot. The Colts surrendered 25.6 FPPG to opposing running backs last season and I expect the Rams to take advantage. I have my reservations towards Jared Goff and Sammy Watkins, which leave me to believe that Gurley could be in for a multiple touch down performance. Gurley at $6,000 makes him the 10th most expensive running back with the upside of a top-five performance.
Bilal Powell ($4,900) vs. BUF
The only fantasy relevant Jets player is Powell, and for good reason. Powell finished with the fourth most receptions (58) among running backs last season while playing behind Matt Forte. There have been rumors about a trade including Forte, or even a possible roster cut. What is certain is that Forte is old and passed his prime. Powell is expected to take the lead in the backfield for the Jets this season. The only hope for the Jets to move the ball is to force-feed Powell in the air and on the ground. The Bills were weak defensively against running backs, allowing 25.6 FPPG and 133.1 YPG on the ground. Powell could be a garbage time hero in Week 1.
Duke Johnson Jr. ($4,600) vs. PIT
Johnson Jr. looks to be in a similar position as the aforementioned Powell. The only difference is that Johnson Jr. isn’t his team’s starting ball carrier. However, the Browns should be playing from behind in this, giving him more opportunities. Johnson Jr. tied for sixth among running backs last season with 53 and his coaching staff has been adamant about getting him involved even more in 2017. Coming in at $4,600, Johnson Jr. could give you the funds to afford an elite stack this week.
Carlos Hyde ($4,600) vs. CAR
Hyde was impressive last season in 13 games before going out with a torn MCL. There were offseason questions about how Hyde will be used in this year with a crowded backfield and new coach. With Tim Hightower placed on IR and Joe Williams released, that only leaves Matt Breida to challenge for the role. Hyde will be San Francisco’s feature back and the fantasy outlook is promising. Hyde will go up against a Panthers defense that should improve from last year. Regardless, at $4,600, he is far too cheap to pass up and we’ve all seen what he can do in Week 1 (2015: 168 rushing yards and two touchdowns; 2016: 88 rushing yards and two touchdowns).
DraftKings NFL Bargain Plays: Week 1 – Wide Receivers
John Brown ($4,800) vs. DET
Brown’s nagging sickle-cell trait hindered his 2016 campaign. Despite this health concern, Brown is still an explosive player on a high scoring offense. As the third option behind David Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald, he should be able to find holes deep down the field against a Lions defense that will be focused primarily on containing Johnson over the course of the game. Brown enters the 2017 season with a sub-$5,000 salary and a favorable matchup. At this price, he only needs to connect on one deep ball to provide a nice return on investment.
Kevin White ($4,200)/Kendall Wright ($3,200) vs. ATL
The Bears will be facing an uphill battle against the Falcons, which creates an ideal fantasy situation for White and Wright. I named both receivers because either player could be a nice bargain pick this week. The loss of Alshon Jeffery to the Eagles and Cameron Meredith to a knee injury opens up nearly 200 targets. White is now the lead man with Wright playing opposite of him. This game is expected to be high scoring with the Bears playing from behind for most of the game. The choice between White and Wright could be as scientific as a flip of the coin. I might lean towards Wright strictly based on the fact that he is $1,000 cheaper.
Zay Jones ($3,500) vs. NYJ
Taking a rookie in the first week of the season is probably frowned upon, but maybe that’s the reason to do so. At $3,500, you can afford a dud, but if Jones outperforms his price tag, then you come out with a big advantage. He should have a low ownership percentage as the Jets are an average pass defense and Tyrod Taylor is recovering from a concussion. The Bills lost Sammy Watkins to the Rams and Jordan Matthews is battling a chest injury and has yet to be cleared. You can’t give LeSean McCoy the ball on every play and I just can’t imagine Brandon Tate or Andre Holmes playing a big role in this game.
DraftKings NFL Bargain Plays: Week 1 – Tight Ends
Zach Ertz ($3,500) vs. WAS
This has to be the best value play of the week and I expect Ertz to be owned by a large number of players. But at $3,500 how could you blame anyone. He finished 2016 with 78 receptions, 816 yards and four touchdowns. Arguably, he has the best chemistry with Carson Wentz and the addition of Alshon Jeffery hasn’t gone quite as smoothly as the Eagles had hoped. The Eagles coaching staff has voiced concern about Jeffery falling behind due to missed time caused by injury. Join the masses and pay down at tight end with Ertz.
Zach Miller ($2,800) vs. ATL
If you want to be contrarian, I think Miller is the way to go. He’ll be playing in a high scoring contest and I believe has a good chance to find the end zone. There aren’t many mouths to feed anymore in Chicago and I could see Atlanta keying in on stopping the run. Miller will most likely be the cheapest player on your team and could provide you with a great return on a very small investment. The only thing I fear is that Dion Sims steals any red zone opportunities.
DraftKings NFL Bargain Plays: Week 1 – Defense
Rams ($3,200) vs. IND
I won’t be looking at any other defenses this week. The Rams are heavily underpriced and going against a poor Colts offense without Andrew Luck under center. Scott Tolzien is the sole reason why I’m all in on the Rams. The other two defenses with extremely favorable matchups are the Bills ($3,900) against the Jets and the Texans ($3,800) against the Jaguars. I’m saving on defense and cashing in elsewhere. Todd Gurley and the Rams defense could make for an inexpensive stack.
Next: FanDuel NFL Lineups Week 1
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