About two-thirds of the field for the Federated Auto Parts 400 will be hoping for a victory that punches a last-minute ticket to the NASCAR playoffs, but only a few can say they have a realistic chance of pulling it off.
Regardless of how you feel about the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series playoff system, it’s hard to argue this one point: it’s made the fall race at Richmond Raceway a lot more interesting.
Because a single victory is enough to make the playoffs in most cases — and is again in 2017 — anyone within the top 30 in points is still alive when the green flag drops for the Federated Auto Parts 400 on Saturday night. But does anyone without a win already really have a chance for a victory?
It’s definitely possible, just not probable, especially given the success that drivers already locked into the postseason have had at Richmond. Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick are just a few of the guys with multiple Richmond victories who could easily add another one, making it a tall task for the last shot brigade.
So let’s break it down: other than the 13 drivers with 2017 wins and the group of Chase Elliott, Matt Kenseth and Jamie McMurray, at least two of whom are going to be in the playoffs no matter what happens, let’s check out who has a realistic chance of winning their way into the championship hunt in descending order of likelihood.
Joey Logano
We know Logano can win because he just did it in the spring. The problem, of course, is that his team was hit with a post-race inspection penalty and the victory was encumbered, which is why he’s even in this group. This car has been pretty dreadful for most of the last month and a half, but maybe coming back to a track where Logano has made it to Victory Lane twice in the last four years will spark something. Maybe.
Clint Bowyer
Joining Stewart-Haas Racing and finally back in better equipment, Bowyer would have been the feel good story of the playoffs had he made it. As it is, he now finds himself needing a last ditch win to do it after fading in points as the summer wore on. Luckily, he won this very race in 2012 and the Richmond spring race a few years before that, so it’s not impossible.
Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Think a Bowyer victory would be popular? “Hold my beer,” says Dale Jr. While Richmond wouldn’t be the first track you’d associate with Junior, he won the spring race here three times between 2000 and 2006. That seems like a lifetime ago now, and the 88 hasn’t been running well at all as of late, but you never know.
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All the 2017 rookies
Erik Jones, Daniel Suarez and Ty Dillon, fine racers all. They’ve undoubtedly got some victories in their future as a group. But it would be a major surprise if any of them broke through under pressure like this where it’s win and you’re in. Better luck next year.
Everyone else
If you’re a fan of Danica Patrick, Chris Buescher, Trevor Bayne or anyone else, you’re going to have to root like never before. And even then it might not matter.