Federated Auto Parts 400 from Richmond: Preview and predictions

The last chance for a playoff spot has arrived at Richmond, but will anyone be able to take advantage of it?

Aside from good short track racing, Richmond Raceway has earned another distinction when it comes to the NASCAR Cup Series season. It’s the final race before the playoffs start (though that will change in 2018), and thus the focus of even more intense interest than your normal race.

When the green flag drops for the Federated Auto Parts 400 on Saturday night, 13 drivers will have the security that comes with being locked into the field for the playoffs. Three others — Chase Elliott, Matt Kenseth and Jamie McMurray — are in on points with no way for anyone to catch them.

However, they’re also only separated from each other by a total of three points, so if one of them has a bad day and someone behind them wins, they’re out. So it will be an especially nerve-wracking 400 laps for those teams.

Kenseth, at least, has helped himself by winning the pole and starting up front. Elliott starts ninth, right beside Erik Jones, the highest starting driver who can only make the playoffs with a victory.

Joey Logano, who needs a win himself after his spring win at Richmond was encumbered for a post-race inspection violation, starts 12th. Other desperation time drivers like Daniel Suarez, Danica Patrick and Trevor Bayne are also in the top 20, so don’t be surprised if Stage 1 of the Federated Auto parts 400 is a little more frantic than usual.

Next: Brad Keselowski celebrates Richmond XFINITY win with epic burnout

Forecast

Rain shouldn’t be a problem in Richmond, with the Weather Channel calling for clear skies through tonight’s race. The thing to watch will be changing temperatures, which could drop off by more than 10 degrees from start to finish. That suggests the track will also change a lot, keeping crew chiefs busy trying to keep up.

Stage lengths

• Stage 1 will end at lap 100
• Stage 2 will end at lap 200
• The final stage will end at lap 400, barring overtime, for a stage length of 200 laps

Three things to watch

• Can anyone catch the Toyotas? It’s been obvious that for whatever reason, the Toyotas of Joe Gibbs Racing and Furniture Row Racing have more speed than pretty much everyone else lately. Five of those cars are in the top 10, including points leader Martin Truex Jr. and JGR teammates Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch, who are as hot as anyone right now. But Brad Keselowski managed to run down Busch on Friday night, so perhaps all hope is not lost.
• Will the upper groove be a factor? When asked if he learned anything running up high during the XFINITY Series race, Kyle Busch remarked that he only did it out of “desperation” and that it was too slow to be of any use when running down the leader. If that stays true for Saturday night, it could be that old school bump and run tactics will be the only way to take the lead from a strong car — not that there’s anything wrong with that.
• Do any of the must-win drivers really have a shot? Maybe. Logano, Clint Bowyer and Dale Earnhardt Jr. all have won at Richmond before, but the way it looks going into the race, they’re fighting an uphill battle.

Predictions

The feel-good stories of a Bowyer or Junior winning would be welcome. Reality suggests otherwise, and it’s likely to come in the form of one of those Toyotas. While Kyle Larson and Kevin Harvick figure to be heard from, the pick here is Kyle Busch, possibly holding off a teammate or Truex to get it done.

We’ll stay Toyota with our dark horse pick, too. Erik Jones could be a factor, and if anyone can really shake up the playoff picture with last-ditch win, why couldn’t it be a rookie making his first trip to Victory Lane?