Five big questions for the NBA’s rookie class
We have questions. Luckily, we also have answers. Some of them might be useful. A few might even turn out to be right. This is Five Big Questions.
Who has a bigger impact this season — Markelle Fultz or Ben Simmons?
Paul Centopani (@pcentopani): Let’s be clear, they’re both going to have a huge impact just as upgrades over Philly’s ball-handlers from last year (no shots at T.J. McConnell). Hmmm…I’ll go with Fultz just because his scoring ability already has the polish that Simmons lacks.
Chris Stone (@cstonehoops): It feels like Ben Simmons has restored some of his mystique with a year in the shadows, specifically with regards to questions surrounding his ability to shoot. That positions Simmons to be an easier answer here, but I’ll side with the player who I think is a slightly better prospect and go with Fultz. The point guard is such a smooth scorer and he’ll actually have talent around him that can accentuate his skill set in a way that Washington’s roster couldn’t.
Brandon Jefferson (@Jefferson_Hoops): Markelle Fultz. Simmons is going to be the key to unlocking the power of the process in Philadelphia, but after being sidelined for the whole season last year his game is going to take more time to work. Fultz is a master with the ball in his hands and his ability to score from all three levels will allow him to get buckets with or without the rock. As he’ll likely share the floor with Joel Embiid, Dario Saric or Simmons (and at times all three), not needing the ball to be effective gives him the upper hand in this discussion.
Jeremy Lambert (@jeremylambert88): I’m going with Ben Simmons because, as Brandon said, he’ll be the key to unlock everything. I think he could be used similarly to Nikola Jokic, who Twitter tells me is the best player in the league. His shooting may not be there, but he’ll get easy buckets inside with his length and athleticism. He’ll also make everyone around him better as long as they’re willing to cut and get open.
Philip Rossman-Reich (@philiprr_omd): Usually I say go with the guy who will have the ball in his hands… but since Brett Brown is going to play both Markelle Fultz and Ben Simmons as point guard, that feels a bit moot, doesn’t it? I am going to go with Fultz though. I think it will take some time for Simmons to get to full speed after such a major injury — it usually takes a full season for a full recovery — and so I think Fultz’s ability to hit the ground running will probably mean he has a bigger impact. I also like Fultz’s ability to develop a shot quicker than Simmons over the course of a season.
As a rookie, Jayson Tatum’s offense will be . His defense will be .
Centopani: Like a young Carmelo Anthony. Like current Carmelo Anthony.
Stone: Paul stole the best answer, but I’ll say his offense will be an odd fit next to Kyrie Irving (assuming they spend time on the court together) and his defense will be a pretty big dumpster fire, but not a raging one.
Jefferson: Paul won, everyone else go home.
Lambert: *goes home*
Rossman-Reich: Whatever Tobias Harris is supposed to be. Oh, I see Paul already used that answer.
Which Marvel superhero is Josh Jackson?
Centopani: Nightcrawler from the X-Men. Super athletic, should provide a lot of support for the young Suns, but doesn’t bring a big offensive punch and isn’t a front man (yet).
Stone: Let’s go with Wolverine. It’s all about the close-range rock fight with Jackson and he’s just as tenacious. He may not excel in terms of efficiency this season, but his unique combination of motor, athleticism and size will make him a valuable player in the NBA.
Jefferson: Chris nailed this with Wolverine, but as I recently went on an unnecessary Netflix binge I want to give some of the less famous Marvel characters some love. That’s why my choice for Jackson is Iron Fist. While some background and explanation for why the comic storyline and character arc make this an apt comparison, I offer this as my reasoning instead: Josh Jackson can’t shoot and there’s no better correlation to that than being called “Iron Fist”
Lambert: Jessica Jones. Because JJ and JJ. Also because Jessica Jones is slept-on compared to the major Marvel superheros and Josh Jackson is slept on compared to the other top-five picks.
Rossman-Reich: The Iron Fist (Netflix version). You are going to find him annoying. His skills will probably not make sense. But there will be enough to get you renewed for a second season. And when you combine the other young players for The Defenders, you are going to wonder why he is so important to the plot.
Cut through the hyperbole, what will Lonzo Ball realistically be able to accomplish this year?
Centopani: I think Lonzo Ball will be a rising tide to lift all ships in Lakerland. The Lakers won’t sniff the playoffs this season in the Thunderdome of the West, but they’ll take some strides forward with Ball making everyone on the court better. I’d put him as the odds-on favorite for Rookie of the Year.
Stone: It’s hard to imagine the Lakers having significant on-court success, but Lonzo is really fun to watch and he’ll likely propel them up the League Pass rankings. Teammates always seem to evolve their game when playing next to Lonzo and that should be a boon for everyone tuning in.
Jefferson: The Lakers are in no way making the playoffs — unless some disastrous natural storm smothers most of the Western Conference — but Ball has a chance to have a very successful rookie season. He’ll be among the contenders for the Rookie of the Year and should make First Team All-Rookie. His style of play will make him must-see TV and if League Pass functions properly many fans will be tuning in to every moment he’s on the court. Ball will bring the fun back to Hollywood and that’s step one in making the Lakers a relevant franchise again.
Lambert: Rookie of the Year. Fultz and Simmons will take away from each other. Dennis Smith Jr. was cursed by the Rookie Survey. Tatum won’t have a big enough impact in Boston. It’s really Ball’s to lose. He’ll be given every opportunity succeed and there’s enough talent on the Lakers for him to put up solid numbers, even if they don’t lead to many victories.
Rossman-Reich: I suspect Lonzo Ball will be on the All-Rookie team. If they keep his role simple and ask him to penetrate and kick or keep the ball moving, he has some weapons to play with in Julius Randle, Brook Lopez and Brandon Ingram. His offense might lag behind others, but I think Lonzo Ball will generate plenty of offense for others and display his playmaking. That might be all they can ask for now.
Which top-10 selection looks like the biggest mistake by the end of this season?
Centopani: Oh god, I’m so nervous it might be Frank Ntilikina. But since he’s been graced by running in pick-up games with Hoodie Melo, he should be fine. The answer is Lauri Markkanen. Sorry, Bulls fans, he’s got bust-potential written all over him. Didn’t like the pick then, don’t like it now.
Stone: The deck is just stacked against Ntilikina. He’s a really good prospect, but he was drafted to play in a situation that no longer exists and will forever draw comparisons to Dennis Smith Jr., a player who is more talented and ended up in a better place to maximize his skills.
Jefferson: Frank Ntilikina is obviously the low-hanging fruit in this scenario, but in an effort to be different the player I am going with is Josh Jackson. While Ntilikina will forever have the stain of being selected in front of Dennis Smith Jr. and Malik Monk, Jackson’s name was sprouted as the straw that broke the camel’s back in the Suns’ trade conversations with the Cavaliers over Kyrie Irving. If Irving has a big season in Boston and Jackson’s jumper still is broken by the end of the season a fair amount of noses might be turned up at him in the Valley of the Sun.
Lambert: Given who selected him, it has to be Lauri Markkanen. The Bulls front office has been nothing but mistakes dating back to last offseason when they thought Dwyane Wade, Jimmy Butler, and Rajon Rondo were a good idea. It might not even be Markkanen’s fault. He might be a halfway decent player. But he’ll be playing with, ummmm, who is on the Bulls again?
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Rossman-Reich: Zach Collins. I am just not a believer in him. He is a stretch center who probably does not have 3-point range and I do not see him as big and strong enough to bang in the post. He is pretty much a worse version of Meyers Leonard (and the Portland Trail Blazers already have one of those). I was surprised Portland traded up to get him at No. 10. I think they are going to regret taking him.