25-under-25: Dennis Smith Jr. at No. 24

The Step Back is rolling out its 25-under-25 list over the next two days. Follow along with our rankings of the top 25 players under the age of 25.

Dennis Smith, Jr., or, as he is affectionately known, DSJ, was drafted by the Mavericks with the No. 9 pick out of North Carolina State. Dennis was a freshman last year, and averaged 18.1 points, 6.2 assists, and 4.6 rebounds for the Wolfpack. He shot a perfectly reasonably 36 percent from beyond the arc, 45.5 percent from the floor, and drew a good number of free throws. The team was pretty bad, but he was pretty good. At 6-foot-3 and 195 pounds, he’s neither a particularly big guard — a league preoccupation these days — nor a particularly small one. And he has crazy bounce. So, that’s good. He’s the highest draft pick they’ve had since drafting Devin Harris No. 5 in 2004, and also goes at the same spot where they once drafted Dirk Nowitzki. A good omen.

Every now and again it happens that a guy gets drafted in probably the right spot, that spot is not in the top five, and it still seems likely the dude is going to be one of the top three or so drafted that year. That’s the story with Dennis Smith. Maybe you’d draft him ahead of Frank Ntilikina, but given positional depth, his height, the fact that his team wasn’t very good, and his relative lack of polish, No. 9 was about right. But nobody was surprised when he busted out in summer league either. He could well be the draft’s steal.

For the Mavs, the problem they’re facing in using him is that the cupboard is bare. It seemed less bare when it was assumed they’d do something sensible with Nerlens Noel. It’s hard to know whether Harrison Barnes is really a part of the next Mavericks’ core, since he’s been good but is more expensive than his performance justifies, but he’ll be able to opt out after Dennis’ second year, and will be a UFA after his third. So, there is likely enough to be a situation, just as Dennis is entering his prime, where the rest of the team is entirely different from what it is today.

That’s not necessarily good or bad, just unknowable, but you’d like to be adding a potential young star to something a little more stable, or even just to a group that’s likely to grow together. The Mavs still have a chance to do that starting with Dennis, and maybe some kind of miracle will save them from their own ineptitude re: Noel. But, the unknown is the unknown.

It’s also the case that Dennis is really young — he won’t turn 20 until around Thanksgiving. Since he wasn’t at a top program, and since he is so young, it is not likely that he’ll blow up the world next year. During Summer League, it was easy to look at him and think rookie of the year candidate. But as Summer League recedes you start to remember that Summer League is Summer League and the guy will probably need some time to adjust to top level opposition every night.

Still, here’s what’s likely true: Dennis will be able to both finish and shoot at the NBA level. He may not be a great assist guy, at first or really ever, but in Carlisle’s offense that matters less than nearly anywhere else. The Mavs need drives and kicks to open up the court for its shooters. In a surprising turn of events, Barnes has started taking a lot of his shots from where Dirk usually takes his — 20 percent of his shots from 10-16 feet last year, compared to 10 percent the year before, 19 percent from 3-10 compared to 15 percent previously, which means the offense might continue looking fairly similar even after Dirk. And Dennis is great for that. Like, really great.

Next: 25-under-25 -- The best young players in the NBA

So, this year, we’ll begin to see what he can do and it’ll take a little while to see it all. But he’s well set up to succeed, he fits the offense, and he’s working for one of the best coaches in the game. By the time he is twenty-five, he could well be one of the top young talents at his position in the league.