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25-under-25: Nerlens Noel at No. 21

By Andrew Tobolowsky

SACRAMENTO, CA - APRIL 4: Nerlens Noel #3 of the Dallas Mavericks looks on during the game against the Sacramento Kings on April 4, 2017 at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Rocky Widner/NBAE via Getty Images)
SACRAMENTO, CA - APRIL 4: Nerlens Noel #3 of the Dallas Mavericks looks on during the game against the Sacramento Kings on April 4, 2017 at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Rocky Widner/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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The Step Back is rolling out its 25-under-25 list over the next two days. Follow along with our rankings of the top 25 players under the age of 25.

Last year, Nerlens Noel split time between the Sixers and the Mavericks and averaged 8.7 points, 5.8 rebounds, and one block per game. But, he really didn’t play much. He started a total of 19 games between both teams and played in a total of 51. He averaged 19.4 minutes for Philly and 22 for Dallas. So, his per 36s are a lot more enticing – 14 points, 11.2 boards, and 1.8 blocks a game for Dallas.

What this means is that Nerlens is probably the most enigmatic talent on this list. On the one hand, he’s been in the league for three seasons already and has never shown the full impact of what it’s suspected he can do. He rarely got 30 minutes a game on a terrible team, or even on the Mavericks, and even though the Sixers were literally defined by their attempts to get young talent, they traded him for almost literally nothing. Then, even though it’s the Mavs who completely botched his contract negotiations, he’s still the one who didn’t attract any restricted free agency money from elsewhere. And yet.

The fact of the matter is, despite his minutes, Nerlens has actually been really good when he played. And, he’s still only 23-years-old. His best asset is obviously that he seems to be preternaturally talented, defensively. For numbers like “Defensive Win Shares” and “Defensive Box Plus Minus,” what he’s done to date is not so far behind Rudy Gobert, probably the league’s premier defensive center at this point. Rudy really busted out last year, putting up a monstrous 6 defensive win shares and a 4.5 on the ol’ DBPM, but Nerlens put up 4.2 and 4.5 in his first year in the league.

In fact, Nerlens in many ways looks like a young Tyson Chandler. For both of them, you could focus on their comparative absence of offensive game if you wanted to — Tyson’s career 8.7 points on an effective field goal percentage of almost 60 maps pretty much exactly onto what Nerlens did last year (8.7 points on an eFG% of 59.5). But, that efficiency makes it matter way less, especially since both are relatively good free-throw shooters for big men. Nerlens’ career 62 percent from the line doesn’t inspire confidence, but his 69.4 percent last year is only a little behind Tyson’s best years.

The fact that Nerlens will be playing for a contract next year is good and bad news for the Mavs. Obviously, he’ll be doing everything he can to get a big offer, and likely enough he’ll be taking that offer from someone else. No matter how many times people say players understand it’s a business, it’s not going to start being true; no matter how many times people say that other teams won’t have money to spend it’s not going to start being true; and most of all people who say that the Mavs will have more money to offer than anyone else forget the fact that they have to actually offer it, rather than play hardball, as they have been wont to do.

Still, the headline for Nerlens Noel is that for once in his career, everyone is on the same page. He wants to earn big money, the Mavs want to see what they’ve got, in him, and there’s nobody standing in his way. It makes a lot of sense for the Sixers to be Joel Embiid’s team, even if the two might have been able to play together better than management figured over there. But with a front-court depth chart that likely consists of Salah Mejri, Josh McRoberts, Dwight Powell, and Max Kleber, Noel should get all the minutes he can handle. I think he’ll perform, and with Wes Matthews and Harrison Barnes around him, the Mavs have the makings of a decent defensive team for once.

Next: 25-under-25 -- The best young players in the NBA

If he plays even only as well as his best so far, and stays relatively healthy, someone will pay him a lot of money next year. No matter what happened this offseason, you don’t get defensive talents like him, at his age — he’ll be 24 — hitting the unrestricted free agent market, which is why the Mavs failing to lock him down when they had the chance looks like such a whiff. His health, however, is the biggest question. The Mavs have a great training staff, they’ll see if they can change his destiny – or if he can change theirs.

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