2017-18 fantasy basketball preview: San Antonio Spurs

Over the coming days, we at FanSided will finish our team-by-team breakdown of each NBA franchise’s fantasy prospects for the 2017-18 season. Let’s continue today with the San Antonio Spurs.

The San Antonio Spurs appeared destined for a major splash this offseason, but their best laid plans seemingly went kaput when the Houston Rockets traded for Chris Paul ahead of free agency. Instead of a major roster overhaul, the Spurs will largely roll the same core back for the 2017-18 season, which is great news for fantasy basketball owners in search of certainty heading into draft day.

Instead of signing Paul or trading LaMarcus Aldridge, the Spurs’ biggest move this offseason was spending their mid-level exception on Rudy Gay. The 31-year-old found a surprisingly effective niche with the Sacramento Kings over the past few seasons, but he suffered a torn Achilles in mid-January. Meanwhile, Jonathon Simmons and Dewayne Dedmon departed in free agency, which leaves the Spurs down two of their most-used reserves from last season.

Point guard is also a glaring concern for San Antonio heading into the season, as Tony Parker suffered a torn quad tendon during the playoffs and likely won’t make his return until January, according to EuroHoops.net. In the meantime, the newly re-signed Patty Mills and second-year floor general Dejounte Murray figure to hold down the fort as the Spurs’ primary ball-handlers, although Kawhi Leonard could absorb some of those responsibilities as well. While San Antonio is a perennial 50-plus-win club, the question marks hovering over them this season could complicate some of their players’ fantasy outlooks.

Which Spurs players should fantasy owners target with early-, mid- and late-round picks, and who should be left on the waiver wire? Let’s take a look.

Early-round picks

Kawhi Leonard, SF: Because Leonard doesn’t stuff stat sheets like James Harden or Russell Westbrook, he’ll likely go off draft boards after both of them, despite finishing ahead of each in terms of per-game value in nine-category leagues last season. While Harden and Westbrook are turnover machines, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year averaged a miniscule 2.1 giveaways to go with his career-high 25.5 points on 48.5 percent shooting, 5.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 2.0 triples and 1.8 steals in just 33.4 minutes. Owners in eight-category leagues should slide Leonard toward the later first round, but those in nine-category leagues should grab him around No. 4 or 5 overall. He finished as the fourth-best player in nine-category leagues last season, and with Parker out, he’ll have to absorb even more offensive responsibility.

Mid-round picks

LaMarcus Aldridge, PF: Aldridge was an early-round fantasy fixture during his time with the Portland Trail Blazers, but his decision to sign with the Spurs two summers ago brought an end to those days. Head coach Gregg Popovich intentionally limits his starters’ minutes throughout the regular season to keep them fresh for the playoffs, and Aldridge’s decline in playing time coincided with a decreased per-game output. With averages of only 17.3 points on 47.7 percent shooting, 7.3 rebounds, 1.9 assists and 1.2 blocks in 32.4 minutes, Aldridge finished last season as the 50th-ranked player on a per-game basis in nine-category leagues. Dedmon’s departure should theoretically open more minutes for Aldridge, but Pop may instead decide to run Leonard or Gay out as small-ball 4s at time. Accordingly, Aldridge is more of a sixth-round target than a top-50 selection.

Pau Gasol, C: Despite averaging career lows in points (12.4), assists (2.3), blocks (1.1) and minutes (25.4) last season, Gasol finished as the 75th-ranked player on a per-game basis in nine-category leagues, in no small part because Popovich is a wizard. Well, that and Gasol hit nearly as many three-pointers (56) last year as he had throughout the first 15 seasons of his NBA career combined (74). While the 37-year-old won’t match his 53.8 percent efficiency from downtown last year, that 3-point shooting adds a new element to his fantasy appeal, making him worth a ninth- or 10th-round pick even as his role continues to shrink moving forward.

Late-round picks

Patty Mills, PG: While the Spurs may be grooming Murray to be the heir apparent to Parker, re-signing Mills on a four-year, $50 million deal suggests he’ll have the inside track to the starting point guard gig this season. During his six postseason starts following Parker’s injury last season, Mills chipped in 10.8 points on a ghastly 34.9 percent shooting, 4.0 assists, 2.2 rebounds, 2.0 triples and 1.3 steals in 31.9 minutes per game while turning the ball over just eight times total. If Mills can keep his giveaways in check while running San Antonio’s offense efficiently, he could have sneaky top-100 upside over the first few months of the season, although Parker figures to supplant him once he returns to full health. As such, whoever takes Mills on draft day should aggressively shop him if he rockets out to a hot start.

Danny Green, SG: Few players are more infuriating to own in fantasy than Green, who followed up a breakout 2014-15 campaign with a clunker of a season in 2015-16. Last year, he put up a frighteningly identical line — 7.3 points on 39.2 percent shooting, 3.3 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.7 3-pointers, 1.0 steals and 0.8 blocks in 26.6 minutes — but his long-range proficiency and defensive stats helped him finish as the 118th-ranked player on a per-game basis in nine-category leagues despite his dismal field-goal percentage. If you’re thinking about drafting him, brace yourself for some occasional arctic-cold nights and rest assured that his value tends to even out across an entire season. Since he’s going undrafted in early ESPN.com leagues, he should be on the board in your final few rounds.

Rudy Gay, SF: While Gay has already been cleared for all basketball activities, according to Jeff McDonald of the San Antonio Express-News, he’s unlikely to recapture his pre-injury form. As Chris Towers of CBS Sports noted in 2015, players often experience severe drop-offs in terms of production upon returning from an Achilles injury, much like Wesley Matthews did upon signing with the Dallas Mavericks two years ago. Unless he proves to be a medical marvel, those drafting Gay in the ninth round — his early ESPN.com ADP is 83.1 — are setting themselves up for disappointment. He’s a 11th- or 12th-rounder at best.

Waiver-wire fodder

Tony Parker, PG

Dejounte Murray, PG

Manu Ginobili, SG

Bryn Forbes, SG

Brandon Paul, SG

Kyle Anderson, SF

Devis Bertans, SF

Joffrey Lauvergne, PF

Derrick White, PF

Next: Every NBA team's Mount Rushmore

Sleepers/Busts

Sleeper: Danny Green

Bust: Rudy Gay

Other team breakdowns

All average draft position info via FantasyPros. All rankings via Basketball Monster are based on nine-category leagues.

Home/Fantasy Basketball