25-under-25: Jaylen Brown at No. 19
The Step Back is rolling out its 25-under-25 list over the next few days. Follow along with our rankings of the top 25 players under the age of 25.
When the Celtics look back at their offseason, they will consider the idea of change and the pursuit of external improvement. They will look at signing Gordon Hayward and trading back in the draft to take Jayson Tatum. They will look at trading for Kyrie Irving to replace Isaiah Thomas. They will look at bringing back only four players from a team that finished first in the East and made the Eastern Conference Finals.
That is all fair and understandable. Evaluations of Danny Ainge’s work this summer will likely go on for years. But it overlooks something key. In committing to a Hayward-Irving-Al Horford core, the Celtics gave up a lot. They didn’t, however, give up a player who will be essential to their team this year and beyond: Jaylen Brown.
Brown is not a star. He will not lead the Celtics in scoring and he will not be able to carry Boston’s perimeter defense all by himself. And considering how the Celtics’ new additions play — Irving as a ball-dominant guard, Hayward capable of being the same, if less driven to do so — he won’t get a chance to do much creation on offense.
Where Brown will succeed is by doing all of the little things well, and in turn, filling in in the areas where Brad Stevens needs him to. Remember, this team sent Jae Crowder to Cleveland, taking away their starting small forward and primary wing defender. Avery Bradley, another essential defender, is gone as well. Out are all of Jonas Jerebko, Amir Johnson and Kelly Olynyk, three players who played heavy minutes up front for Boston. Gerald Green, albeit far less important, is gone too.
With all of those players around last year, Brown played 17.2 minutes a game while mostly coming off the bench. He’s likely to play a lot more, and perhaps start a lot more, in 2017-18.
What’s intriguing about Brown is that he can do a little bit of everything and could be very good at everything. Although he’s not always successful — and what 20-year-old is? — he showed the strength needed to at least look like he can hang with LeBron James in the post and is quick enough to chase Stephen Curry around screens. How many players project as being able to do that? It’s not many. It’s also the exact type of player the Celtics need him be.
Brown’s role could easily shift night to night, game to game, depending on who the Celtics are playing. If it’s a team in the East with a bigger wing who Stevens wants to keep Hayward away from to save energy — say the Raptors, who have DeMar DeRozan — Brown can slide over and handle it for most of the night. If Boston is facing a team with really strong point guard play — say the Hornets and Kemba Walker — Brown can take that assignment and keep Irving from being picked on over and over again. It wouldn’t be a shock to see Stevens entrust Brown with defending the league’s elite scorers — James Harden, let’s say — when Boston faces those teams either.
Brown is essential to Boston’s hopes of taking down Cleveland — and then, maybe, the Warriors — this year. With Crowder now a Cavalier, it’s on him to defend LeBron for at least part of every Cavs-Celtics matchup. Marcus Smart will see time on James, but he’s too small to really hang with him over 48 minutes. Hayward will likely have to take his turn, but he’s not strong enough to really handle James. That means Brown has to do it. Having already spent time guarding James as a rookie should give him experiences to draw on and build on.
Aside from defensive flexibility, where Brown can separate himself and give himself a shot at playing 25-30 minutes a game is by filling in everywhere on offense. In his limited minutes last year, he shot 34.1 percent on 3.6 3-point attempts per game and 35.9 percent on 1.5 catch and shoot 3-point attempts per game. In increased minutes and in between two players capable of creating shots for others in an offense that prioritizes it, he’s going to get to shoot more. If he can tick up his percentage just a bit and handle the volume, it gives him an edge. Smart, for his career, is a 29.1 percent shooter from 3 and teams completely ignore him come playoff time.
It’s unclear if Brown will start or come off the bench next year. He and Smart seem to be the likeliest candidates to alongside Irving and Hayward. And whoever doesn’t get the nod will almost certainly have the chance to in different lineups and situations. Boston going small could get both on the floor at the same time.
Next: 25-under-25 -- The best young players in the NBA
Either way, Brown’s going to have to do more this season. The Celtics’ success might depend on it.