This Week in Stats: Burnley frustrate Liverpool yet again

Roy Hodgson started work at Crystal Palace, Burnley frustrated Liverpool again and Arsenal showed resilience on the road.

We’ve reached week five of the Premier League season and neither Crystal Palace nor Southampton have yet featured in this column. As the former changed their manager this week, and the latter were the new man’s first opponents, it seems as good a time as any to take a look.

Frank de Boer was unfortunate to lose his job. Rumors of off-field issues aside, the Dutchman was fatally undermined by his team’s finishing.

FiveThirtyEight shared expected goals (‘xG’) figures for the Premier League. After four matches, Palace were eighth in the division for expected goal difference.

The defeat at Burnley which saw the end of de Boer’s brief reign was his nadir on this front. The home side only had four shots to Palace’s 23, but won 1-0. The xG figures of 2.0 against 0.3 in the Eagles’ favour were damned; the Clarets won the match, and de Boer was gone.

In came local lad Roy Hodgson. This week’s match with Southampton wasn’t quite so one-sided, but the Saints had one (Opta-defined) big chance and took it, while Palace had three and missed them all. The worst culprit was Jason Puncheon, who won a bad stat award for most shots without scoring last season, and missed two big chances on Saturday.

He’s one of six players in the league to amass over one expected goal without scoring this season. The problem for Palace is Christian Benteke and Scott Dann are also in that group of six. On one hand, they’re all due a goal. On the other, Palace’s next three matches are against both Manchester clubs and then Chelsea. The finishing fairy needs to bless the Eagles soon if they are to stay up this season.

Burnley frustrate a top side yet again

Liverpool struggled against Burnley home and away last season. They came from behind to win at Anfield, thanks mainly to a fine long-range goal by Emre Can. But in an error strewn performance at Turf Moor they went down to a 2-0 defeat.

Jurgen Klopp completed his set of potential results against the Clarets with a 1-1 draw on Saturday. Liverpool did not fail to win due to a lack of effort. They definitely needed some smarter thinking and more guile in the final third to make the difference, though.

Let’s again refer to the expected goals data of FiveThirtyEight. They awarded the Reds 2.2 goals on their shot-based xG model, but 3.1 on their non-shot system. In other words, the actions Liverpool completed in and around the Burnley box should’ve lead to 3.1 goals. However, their poor choices in dangerous areas meant they didn’t test Burnley keeper Nick Pope as much as they should have, and poor finishing took care of most of the rest.

Yes, you read the above tweet correctly. The late chance with which Dominic Solanke hit the bar was worth more in expected goal terms than Burnley’s entire attacking output.

Sean Dyche won’t have been bothered by that, though. He sets his side up to frustrate their opponents, and they usually do so masterfully, as this tweet demonstrates.

Liverpool had 35 shots in the match. Since August 2015, there have been 13 Premier League games where a team has had at least 26 shots and failed to win. Liverpool-Burnley games are now in there twice, and the Clarets were the defending team in four of the 13 examples. The Reds would’ve known what to expect, but they weren’t good enough to overcome it.

Next: Ranking every Premier League season

Arsenal kept Chelsea at bay

Arsenal were humbled 4-0 in their previous away match, and many people thought a defeat was on the cards at Stamford Bridge. Yet the Gunners kept Chelsea scoreless at home for the first time under Antonio Conte. Not only that, but Arsenal picked up only their third clean sheet on the road in the same period.

Conte employed a back three for most of last season, after his team were easily beaten at the Emirates. By the end of 2016-17, Arsene Wenger had done likewise, and used the formation to defeat the Blues in both the FA Cup final and Community Shield (on penalties). It was no surprise to see him match Arsenal up like-for-like with Chelsea here.

And it worked; this was Chelsea’s worst performance at home statistically since they beat Manchester City 2-1 in April. It could easily have been better for Arsenal, as they had both the first and last big chances of the match. Golden opportunities for Danny Welbeck and Alexandre Lacazette sandwiched one for Pedro, and the Gunners also hit the woodwork.

One mystery remains; why have Alexis Sanchez and Lacazette not played together yet? Wenger claimed last month he was keen to see that happen. But one has replaced the other with almost clockwork timing around midway through the second half in the last three league matches.

Sanchez was the late entrant here, and he created one chance but had no shots himself. At Anfield, Lazacette replaced the Chilean and had one shot but created nothing. If Arsenal are serious about looking to win these tough away matches, surely the pair need to be unleashed together? Your move, Arsene.