25-under-25: Karl-Anthony Towns at No. 2
By Jeff Siegel
The Step Back is rolling out its 25-under-25 list over the next two days. Follow along with our rankings of the top 25 players under the age of 25.
Karl-Anthony Towns is nothing short of a spectacular basketball player. An offensive superstar in almost any role, Towns has flourished in his first two seasons in the NBA, missing out on All-NBA honors in 2017 by a margin of just less than one first-place vote. The Timberwolves are changing around him, but he remains the focal point of the team, even with the addition of another top-20 player in Jimmy Butler this offseason.
There’s nothing a big man is supposed to do offensively that Towns can’t do. He’s great in the post, as a roll man, on the offensive glass and can get out in transition when necessary. Not only does he grade out as one of the most efficient big men in the league across every offensive play type — he does so on a higher usage than many of his peers at the top of the league. That combination of usage and efficiency vaulted him from Rookie of the Year in 2015-16 to a mainstay atop any ranking for years to come.
Towns finished 27th in the entire league in points per possession as a roll man in pick-and-roll, while almost doubling up the total possessions used of any of the 26 players who finished above him. Only Rudy Gobert was “close” to Towns in roll man usage, and Towns used 75 percent more possessions last season than Gobert. He can finish inside, he can shoot out to the 3-point line and he’s an active offensive rebounder in the rare case he does miss inside. Once again, nobody had Towns’ combination of usage and efficiency in offensive rebounding situations. He had the sixth-most put back possessions and finished third in points per possession among all players who had at least 100 such opportunities.
There’s no questioning Towns’ place in the hierarchy of the league. He’s almost certainly the best big man to come through the draft since Anthony Davis and might even have a higher ceiling than his fellow Kentucky alum. There is, however, ample reason to question how Towns will fit into the new-look Timberwolves. The addition of Butler does throw a wrinkle in Towns’ meteoric rise — how does Towns fit in now that the team features a pair of high-usage isolation scorers on the wing in Butler and Andrew Wiggins? Will Towns have to sacrifice touches to let Butler do his thing on the perimeter? As expected, a vast majority of Towns’ pick-and-roll possessions were executed with Ricky Rubio, since departed for Utah. Does Butler have the passing acumen to run those same actions with Towns? Will new point guard Jeff Teague get Towns as involved as Rubio did the past two years?
As ever, winning cures all, and expectations are sky high for the Timberwolves this season. Any fit questions will melt away if the Wolves crack 50 wins and a top-five playoff seed after over a decade out in the cold wilderness of the lottery.
On the defensive end, Towns is very much a work-in-progress. For all of his offensive gifts, he struggles with relatively basic recognition and positioning defensively. He’s slow to react when his man flips the screen on the ball-handler, he sometimes lunges toward the ball and gets blown by, and too often just doesn’t even get a hand up when the ball-handler comes around the screen. The addition of Butler should help, both directly and indirectly — Towns won’t have to defend on the perimeter as often as Butler will be able to lock off his guy or get through screens, but the addition of Butler on the other end might help Towns just as much. As many young players do, Towns has clearly conserved his energy defensively in order to fill his offensive role as well as he can. This year, Towns should be able to put more into his defensive development with a slightly reduced set of offensive responsibilities.
Defense is almost entirely mental. Effort and recognition of what the offense is trying to do encompass a majority of the skills it takes to be a good defender and Towns hasn’t had a whole lot of either the past two years. The effort should increase as his offensive role decreases and his recognition will come as he ages and has another year in Tom Thibodeau’s system.
Next: 25-under-25 -- The best young players in the NBA
The key to Towns’ 2017-18 season is a little better balance between offense and defense, but it almost doesn’t matter if he ever figures out the defensive end at an above-average level. He’s so incredible on the offensive end that he is a perennial MVP candidate even if his defense never improves past where it’s been the past two years. Knowing what we know about Towns, his workaholic nature and his desire to be great, I sure wouldn’t bet against him earning multiple MVPs over the next 10 years.