25-under-25: Nikola Jokic at No. 4

The Step Back is rolling out its 25-under-25 list. Follow along with our rankings of the top 25 players under the age of 25.

The big man, a giant human airport attraction. Pigeonholed as brutish, strong, Goliathan, ho ho ho, green giant. More so than any other profession on the planet, basketball offers a platform for the tall to express themselves physically, athletically, artistically. And nothing in basketball articulates skill quite like silky, simpatico passing from a 7-footer (give or take a couple inches). They become revered, their talents elicit toothy awed grins and are fawned over. Their passes forever oceans of epiphanies washing over our minds with fondness and feeling. Their names immortal: Walton, Jabbar, Chamberlain, Vlade, Sabonis, C-Webb. At the tender age of 22, Nikola Jokic has joined this list of luminaries.

Jokic has the full arsenal of passes in his bag. The baseball-style fullcourt outlet pass tossed with the touch of Wes Unseld, but if Unseld opted for a one-armed pass instead of the patented two-armed. There’s the behind-the-head, no-look two-hander of Sabonis. The reinterpretation of Kareem’s skyhook-into-a-pass reimagined in his own slow-mo set shot-into-a-pass. He has Walton’s hanging lob pass to cutters who get split seconds ahead of trailing defenders. He’s got it all and like his predecessors, is buoyed by a “what’s so special” nonchalance to his passing.

But he is more than just carbon copy (it seems our all-seeing big man passers are often originals). His preferred offensive initiations come facing the hoop where his height allows him a perfect view of a panorama of movement; men in different colored shirts taking choreographed steps, counter steps, fakes, jerks, and feints. Jokic sees it and processes it, less like a computer and more like a man of patience awaiting a single moment in a game of a million movements and moments.

It’s not just that his passing gene makes him a sort of “searching for Bobby Fischer” fascination. Given the ball at the wing, Jokic is prone to turning his backside to the defender with wings like Wilson Chandler or Gary Harris making hard cuts around him and suddenly opening multiple options: First, the dribble handoff which is made all the more dangerous by Jokic’s ample mass utilized in this scenario as a screener. Or, if the defender curls around the screen (the smart move since guys like Harris and Chandler are plus-3-point shooters), Jokic has the lob pass just waiting. If Jokic’s man sags back to help on the cut, he has the 3-point shot which is far from a finished product, but semi-serviceable by big man standards. This ability to improvise based on what the defense is giving, the ability to read and react in space, is the foundation of his great passing talent.

I watched all 359 of Jokic’s registered assists from 2016-17 and aside from a few oddities like CJ McCollum getting repeatedly roasted by Harris on backdoor cuts and some abominable passes scored as assists, I saw what appeared to be an evolving chemistry between Jokic and his teammates as the season went on. In my notes, I cornily borrowed from Field of Dreams when I wrote, “if you cut, he will find you.” While I’m embarrassed for writing such drivel, the substance holds and it was borne out by the tape: cut hard and cut enough and there’s a good chance a layup awaits. It’s also shown in the stats which CBS Sports’ Matt Moore showed in a piece he wrote in March, showing nine different Nuggets who had a significantly higher net rating when playing with Jokic than without. On the low end was mid-season acquisition Mason Plumlee with a mere 2.5-point increase when playing alongside Jokic while Kenneth Faried saw a 23.6-point swing between Jokic being on or off the court.

The primary focus of what I’ve written has been Jokic’s ability to initiate the offense and make life easier for teammates on that side of the court. But he’s a tantalizing 22-year-old for other reasons. He’s the only 21-year-old, 6-foot-10 or taller, in league history to average at least 16 points, 9 rebounds, and 4 assists while recording a true shooting percentage over 60.

This buffet of stats is made more disturbing by looking at Jokic’s minutes-per-game. Last year he appeared in less than 30 minutes each night which is lower than any player included on the chart above. I don’t think his general lack of relative playing time is more exciting than his passing or feel for the game, but it lifts the ceiling on his statistical possibilities. Extrapolated out over the standard per-36 minutes and Jokic averaged a Westbrookian 21 points, nearly 13 rebounds, and over six assists on an un-Westbrookian 64 true shooting percentage. The list of players who have averaged 21-12-6 for an entire season includes three names: Wilt Chamberlain, KG, and Oscar Robertson. Each of them needed over 40 minutes-per-game to do it.

Jokic has struggled play more than 30 minutes in part because he’s not in the greatest physical condition and he’s prone to landing in foul trouble. Like fellow future star Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jokic commits unnecessary fouls at inopportune times (which is anytime considering his value to the team). The bigger difference is that Giannis’s length, athleticism and versatility mean he can more easily overcome poor decisions on defense. For all of Jokic’s gifts, speed and quickness are not among them. He doesn’t project well as a defender which doesn’t mean he can’t find a way to stay out of foul trouble.

Next: 25-under-25 -- The best young players in the NBA

It’s not to dismiss the defensive side of the ball, but kind of like Kyrie Irving, I’m so captivated by the art and the timing and choreography that I can’t dwell on the warts of this basketballing Mona Lisa. Nikola Jokic is 22 years old and won’t turn 23 until February. He’s appeared in less than 155 games, under 3,800 minutes. He’s a giant, graceful iceberg pushing fast breaks across the continental divide, showing us more and more, one fake, one pass, one pick at a time. I have no clue what it will add up to, but if these early days are an indication, the future is radiant in Denver which is more than most can say.