New Kids on the Block: Braves A.J. Minter and the Value of K’s

The Atlanta Braves might have the next great left-handed reliever on their hands, but does A.J. Minter have the right stuff?

The Braves lefty has been striking out batters at an elite clip. Over 10 innings pitched in the MLB, A.J. Minter has retired 15 batters via the strikeout. That is good for a 13.5 K/9 (with a 0 BB/9). That would land him ninth among qualified relievers ahead of Aroldis Chapman (12.71 K/9) and Andrew Miller (12.86 K/9) if he had pitched enough innings.

If we look at his minor league track record, Minter further proves his ability to get outs by the strikeout. He’s had two stops in the minor leagues with more that 15 games played. In 2016, he played 18 games at AA collecting 31 Ks over 18.2 innings pitched.

In 2017, he entered 17 games in AAA with only 17 strikeouts over 15.1 innings pitched. Whats more impressive are his walk numbers. Minter has never walked more than 10 batters at any level. He clearly has the Right Stuff (I know I used the same song name twice) to succeed at the MLB level, but what kind of fantasy value does he have?

One major concern about A.J. Minter revolves around his playing time. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen outlines it best with his scouting report on the braves system prior to the 2017 season:

"Minter’s injury resume is lengthy. He dealt with thoracic outlet syndrome as a freshman at Texas A&M, and then needed Tommy John as a junior. He threw more innings in the Braves org last year than he did in any season during his three-year career with the Aggies, even with the Braves often spacing out his single-inning relief appearances by four to six days. He carries extreme risk, which is the only reason he’s not higher on this list. Otherwise, he projects as a dominant reliever with an upper-90s fastball and plus-plus slider/cutter, though I suppose the fastball velo might tick down under a 60- to 80-inning workload rather than a cautious 34. He could rocket to the big leagues next year, or he could blow out and never be heard from again."

Fantasy Outlook

He was right when he said that Minter could “rocket to the big leagues.” The Braves, however, seem content spacing his innings out which hurts his fantasy value. On the low-end, Minter could be a cheap source of strikeouts in deep, NL-only leagues. With save chances, Minter quickly goes from obscure lefty to fantasy stud.

At this point, Arodys Vizcaino leads the pack of closer choices in the 2018 Braves bullpen with Jose A. Ramirez’s outstanding 2017 landing him right behind Viz. Minter, at this point, will be the odd man out. He should break camp alongside Sam Freeman as lefties in the pen. All indications point to the Braves easing Minter into a high leverage position, but the relievers ahead of him in the pecking order are not without faults.

Next: Athletics: Daniel Mengden worth a waiver wire add?

With the full offseason to go, the Braves could do a myriad of things to solidify their bullpen. Signing a closer isn’t out of the question. What Minter provides the Braves is a solid lefty with huge strikeout upside. Investing in him might leave you Hangin’ Tough in the early season, but in the heat of the Summertime, you could be rewarded with an elite closer with major K upside. You Got It if you think I’d reference the same song three times in a single article. At least you know now of Minter’s potential as well as my knowledge of hit New Kids On The Block songs.