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Jorge Linares vs. Luke Campbell: Preview and prediction

By Jeremy Herriges

MANCHESTER, ENGLAND - MARCH 25: Jorge Linares of Venezuela celebrates victory with his team following the WBC Diamand and Ring Magazine Lightweight Championship rematch between Jorge Linares and Anthony Crolla at Manchester Arena on March 25, 2017 in Manchester, England. (Photo by Alex Livesey/Getty Images)
MANCHESTER, ENGLAND - MARCH 25: Jorge Linares of Venezuela celebrates victory with his team following the WBC Diamand and Ring Magazine Lightweight Championship rematch between Jorge Linares and Anthony Crolla at Manchester Arena on March 25, 2017 in Manchester, England. (Photo by Alex Livesey/Getty Images) /
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Jorge Linares is the WBA world lightweight champion, but is he in danger of falling victim to an upset?

Jorge Linares (42-3, 27 KOs) is a four-time world champion. He hasn’t lost a fight in nearly five years and is considered to be one of the best in the lightweight division.

He defends his WBA lightweight title on Saturday, Sept. 23, at the Forum in L.A. against prospect, Luke Campbell (17-1, 14KOs).

Not many are giving Luke Campbell a chance in this fight. SportsBookReview.com shows that betting lines are as high as +300 for Campbell and as low as -400 for Linares. Linares is a healthy favorite against Campbell.

Linares has a large experience advantage over Campbell. He has 268 rounds of professional experience to Campbell’s 96. Linares is more athletic than Campbell, has faster hands and better defensive skills. All logic points to Linares beating Campbell handily.

But logic can be defied from time to time, and I think this is one of those times.

Both boxers have vulnerabilities and question marks surrounding them.  Linares has three losses on his record and all of them were by knockout. They occurred a long time ago and he’s improved a lot since his last loss to Sergio Thompson in 2012.

Campbell has one loss on his record which came against Yvan Mendy in 2015.  Mendy is a better boxer than people give him credit for, and his tough, straight-ahead style was problematic for Campbell.

Campbell won a gold medal at the 2012 Olympics, but he’s been brought along slowly. His opposition has been soft, and most of his fights have been at home in England. This fight against Linares will only be the second time that Campbell has fought outside of the UK.

The odds are against Campbell, but this is his opportunity to show the world that he belongs in the top-tier of the lightweight division.

Stylistically, Campbell should give Linares problems. Campbell is a southpaw with a  size advantage over Linares. He’s one inch taller, has a two-inch reach advantage and should have a weight advantage at the time of the fight.

The last time that Linares faced an opponent with similar characteristics was in 2011 against Antonio DeMarco. DeMarco was down on the scorecards and was outboxed by Linares, but he used his southpaw stance to sneak in powerful lefts to Linares’ head.

DeMarco’s left hand caused a lot of damage to Linares’ face and the fight had to be stopped in round 11.

Campbell’s similarities to DemArco bode well for him. The difference between DeMarco and Campbell is that Campbell is a more technical boxer with better power and faster hands.

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It’s Campbell’s style and attributes that I believe will allow him to pull an upset victory over Linares. Look for a repeat of the DeMarco fight. Linares is an improved boxer, but his old flaws and inability to endure shots to the head are going to reappear.

Look for Campbell to make a name for himself by stopping Linares late with a TKO. This is a crucial fight for Campbell and I think he will raise his game to a new level.

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