Is Devin Booker going to be an offensive star?

Devin Booker enters his third NBA season just 20 years old, younger than some 2017 first-round draft picks. Despite his young age, he carries lofty expectations, from himself, his team and his fans. It would have seemed absurd three years ago to expect him to be fighting for All-NBA selections already, but that’s where the hype is pushing him.

The 6-foot-6 shooting guard has displayed the potential to be a good NBA player. He can hit shots from the outside, has a developing repertoire of go-to moves and counters and will drop the occasional eyebrow-raising dime. His defensive effort is lacking, but he certainly has the ability to be a league-average defender should he commit himself.

Some, such as Kevin Durant, see that collection of tools and feel like they’re looking at the next big thing. In a recent interview on the Bill Simmons’ podcast, he had this to say about Booker:

"I love Devin Booker, man…he is nice. He next — I’m telling you."

Others aren’t sure exactly how high Booker’s ceiling really is.

His offensive inefficiency presents itself as the biggest red flag and an area for concern right now. Booker’s effective field goal percentage of 47.5 in 2016-17 was lower than well-known chuckers such as Derrick Rose and Andrew Wiggins.

He drained 36.3 percent of his 3-point attempts last season, which is up two percentage points from his rookie campaign. Unfortunately, that’s barely above last year’s league average 35.8 percent.

Read More: Similarities between Booker and Kobe Bryant

Booker’s  3-point catch-and-shoot numbers are even more concerning. After making 40.9 percent in 2015-16, he took a significant step back, connecting on only 35.5 percent of his attempts last year. That ranks him 144th amongst players who played 50 or more games and attempted at least one catch-and-shoot 3-pointer per game.

While it’s great to see an improvement (no matter how small) in his overall numbers, Booker isn’t the 3-point extraordinaire his reputation might lead you to believe. His pull-up game is also an ascending skill. After only making 24.3 percent of his off-the-dribble 3s in his first year, he drastically improved to 35.1 percent last season. That puts him right in line with 3-point studs Kyrie Irving and Lou Williams.

The outside shot will make or break Booker in the long run. His hopes of becoming an elite offensive player rest on him developing into an elite shooter. If he’s able to get control over his body on those shot attempts it will carry him a long way.

Due to his height and high release, he already has some of the tools to be able to shoot over guys when being closely guarded. This will be a key skill, as he doesn’t have the athleticism to create space from his defender on a consistent basis. He has to do it with precise footwork, a tight handle and savvy awareness.

If his shooting is a work in progress, consider his playmaking skills in need of some heavy development.

The pick-and-roll is a crucial part of any NBA offense. Putting the opposing big man in a position to guard on the perimeter can lead to matchup advantages for the offensive team. This two-man game has not yet been an area of strength for Booker in his short career.

Last season, only 37.3 percent of the pick-and-roll possessions he finished (with a shot attempt, shooting foul or turnover) actually resulted in points. That ranks him 70th out of 87 players who finished at least three possessions per game as the pick-and-roll ball-handler. Similarly, Booker turned the ball over on 16.7 percent of those occasions, which ranked him 56th in the same group.

The pick-and-roll was a trial-and-error process for him last season as he didn’t always know how to read what the defense was giving him. This skill might improve over time, but it remains a major flaw in Booker’s game, especially if we’re considering his potential ceiling as an elite offensive player.

Here, Tyson Chandler is the screener and Booker comes off the ball-screen nearly shoulder-to-shoulder. He then finds himself one-on-one at the elbow with the aging Dirk Nowitzki. After Booker crosses over to his left hand, he gives a feeble deke to Nowitzki’s left shoulder. Nowitzki doesn’t bite and he’s able to paw the ball away from Booker out of bounds for a turnover.

Most teams game plan to put Nowitzki on an island in the pick-and-roll. Booker was unable to take advantage of this situation due to his still-developing ball-handling abilities. It wasn’t all bad for Booker. At times, he displayed an ability to find the open man when the defense least expected it:

After coming off the ball screen here, he knows he has his teammate in the corner for an outside shot. When it’s not there immediately, he continues to penetrate towards the rim. The help defender attempts to cut off the drive and contest the shot. While in the air, Booker drops a gorgeous bounce-pass to his teammate for an uncontested corner 3-pointer. These are the types of plays that engender belief in this young man.

Here’s another clip from the same game. This time, he makes an errant pass that takes away another scoring opportunity for his team:

The play starts off with a nice dribble hand-off that turns into a pick-and-roll with Chandler. Once again, Booker gets into the middle of the lane with only the opposing team’s center in his way. This time he opts to try an alley-oop with Chandler. The opportunity for a lob pass might have been there, if he had been able to freeze the Mavs’ defender, look him off with his eyes, or simply get more air under the pass to Chandler.

Instead, it’s another turnover.

Setting his passing woes aside, Booker also struggles to finish at the rim. According to Statmuse, he completed an uninspiring 51.3 percent of his shots from around the basket. That’s well below the league average of 57 percent.

On this play, the threat of Booker’s shot brings a hard closeout. He takes one hard dribble toward the rim before gathering for the layup. Unfortunately, his defender is able to take one last swipe at the ball, causing him to miss the easy bunny:

As he continues to develop his body, Booker will be able to fight through this minimal contact and finish a higher percentage of his shots around the basket. Hopefully, he will also learn how to put a defender in jail, so to speak, and use his body to keep his man out of position, something that has been extremely valuable for players like Jimmy Butler.

The bottom line is that the combination of Bookers’ borderline inefficiency and enormous usage rate drag down his overall value right now.

His 28.4 usage percentage in 2016-17 ranked 11th out of 141 guards who played 50 or more games. However, his true shooting percentage ranked 85th amongst those same players.

The good news is he has nothing but time on his hands, as he’ll only turn 21 shortly after the new season begins. Despite his low true shooting percentage compared to the rest of the league, it’s a fairly high mark when measured against his peers on a historic level. Only eight players since 1979 have posted a higher true shooting percent in their age 20 season.

If he wants to see that percentage rise even higher, the Phoenix Suns will be wise to lower his offensive responsibility somewhat.

Very few players in this league can handle high usage rates and maintain good shooting percentages. Removing some offensive responsibility will allow him to be more selective on his shots. He can pass on the more difficult opportunities and hunt for higher percentage shots overall. He has been in the position of playing for a bad team the past few years, the Suns have had nothing to lose by letting him learn through his mistakes at the offensive end — and he’s already come a long way.

Next: The Process isn’t over yet for the 76ers

But if the Suns and Devin Booker are going to reach their ceilings together, he’ll need to be better, surrounded by better players, and maybe have the opportunity to do a little bit less on offense than he’s been doing so far.