Fantasy basketball trade reaction: Carmelo Anthony to the Oklahoma City Thunder

Breaking down the fantasy basketball ramifications of the enormous Carmelo Anthony trade to the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Less than 24 hours after reporting Carmelo Anthony had expanded the list of teams for whom he’d waive his no-trade clause, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski dropped an enormous #WOJBOMB Saturday.

Suddenly, an Oklahoma City Thunder team that entered the offseason with Russell Westbrook flanked by Victor Oladipo, Enes Kanter and Steven Adams will head into training camp with Anthony and Paul George alongside Westbrook and Adams. While the Thunder should be vastly improved this season, fantasy basketball owners may not be enthralled with this consolidation of star power in OKC.

Let’s break down both sides of what the Melo trade means for fantasy purposes.

Oklahoma City Thunder

After Westbrook led the league in scoring last year and became the first player in 50-plus years to average a triple-double across a full season, he’ll be hard-pressed to put up similar numbers this time around. In 2016-17, the only other Thunder player with a usage rate north of 25 percent was Kanter (27.3 percent), while Westbrook consumed a league-leading 41.7 percent of OKC’s possessions when he was on the floor. Carmelo Anthony and Paul George, meanwhile, had usage rates of 29.1 percent and 28.9 percent, respectively.

If those three players maintained their usage rates from the 2016-17 season, their other teammates with whom they shared the floor would almost never touch the ball. Since that isn’t going to happen, fantasy owners should expect Westbrook’s usage to plunge to somewhere around 30 percent — which is where he hovered while with Kevin Durant, Serge Ibaka and James Harden in OKC — while Anthony and George should settle in around the low- to mid-20s.

What does that mean for their respective fantasy values in 2017-18? While Westbrook was in contention for the No. 1 overall pick in eight-category formats prior to the Anthony trade, he’s looking more like a mid-first-rounder now. In nine-category leagues, Westbrook slips into the late first-round range, behind the likes of Stephen Curry, Anthony Davis and James Harden. Having two proven scorers alongside him should help him cut down on his turnovers, but his nightly 30-point triple-doubles are a thing of the past.

George shot a career-high 46.1 percent overall while attempting a team-high 18.0 shots per game during his final season with the Indiana Pacers last year, but touches will be more difficult to come by this season. While he’s likely to score less in OKC, the defensive attention Westbrook and Anthony draw could help him boast career-high shooting efficiency. He’s also an underrated passer, having averaged 3.2 assists per game throughout his career, so he’ll be able to devote more attention toward that and defense. George may not repeat his top-15 finish from this past season, but he’ll still make for a strong late second- or early third-round pick.

Of the three, Anthony may take the biggest hit from this move. Like George, his scoring volume is certain to decrease, although he could offset that with improved shooting efficiency. He’s all but guaranteed to smash his career high in 3-point attempts, which could breathe life back into his top-50 upside, especially if he rounds out his fantasy output with an increase in assists as well. I had Anthony as a late fifth-round pick prior to his arrival in OKC, but he’s more of a sixth- or seventh-rounder now due to the likelihood he takes a backseat to Westbrook and George.

The arrival of George and Anthony could also bode well for Steven Adams’ sneaky mid-round appeal. Adams, who’s going off the board in the ninth round of a typical draft, posted 10th-round value last year despite averaging a career-low 9.2 rebounds and 1.2 blocks per 36 minutes. With Kanter gone, the Thunder will need to rely upon Adams at the 5 more than ever, which should enable him top 30 minutes per game for the first time in his career. While he’ll be nothing more than the No. 4 option on offense when he shares the floor with Westbrook, George and Anthony, he can feast on rim rolls and offensive putbacks while focusing most of his attention on cleaning the glass and rejecting shots.

Patrick Patterson, meanwhile, goes from an intriguing late-round flier to waiver-wire fodder in the wake of this deal. He underwent arthroscopic surgery on his left knee on Aug. 10, according to Brett Dawson of the Oklahoman, and the team has yet to reveal his timetable to return. Patterson figured to start at the 4 prior to Anthony’s arrival, but the 10-time All-Star will push him into a reserve role. Given the uncertainty surrounding his health, Patterson is now only an option for owners in deeper leagues.

New York Knicks

With Anthony and Derrick Rose no longer in the fold, the Knicks have 40 points and 34 shots per game to replace between those two alone. Kristaps Porzingis, who finished second on the team in points and third in shot attempts last season, figures to get first crack at filling that void.

Even if free-agent signee Tim Hardaway Jr. effectively replaces Rose’s output, Porzingis is likely to go from roughly 15 shots per game to north of 20, perhaps. If he maintains his efficiency from this past season, that should put him in the neighborhood of 22-24 points per game to go with 7-8 rebounds, two 3-pointers and two blocks a night. I had him ranked 26th on my big board for nine-category leagues prior to the trade, but he’ll now move up into the early third-round territory.

Willy Hernangomez, meanwhile, loses some of his sleeper appeal thanks to the arrival of Kanter. Even if the Knicks remain steadfast in their commitment to a youth movement and keep Big Willy in their starting lineup, Kanter will provide far stiffer competition for playing time than the corpse of Joakim Noah did. Hernangomez posted near-top-100 value in just 24.2 minutes per game after the All-Star break, but having to stave off both Kanter and Noah (once he returns from his PED suspension) will make it difficult for him to repeat that feat. Whereas Hernangomez looked like a strong 11th-round pick prior to Kanter’s arrival, he’s now more of a 12th- or 13th-rounder.

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Kanter’s value shouldn’t change much in New York, provided the Knicks utilize him the same way OKC did. The score-first, defensively challenged big man is best suited to come off the bench and dominate reserve bigs in limited spurts, as evidenced by his 14.3 points and 6.7 rebounds in 21.3 minutes per game last season. His lack of blocks (0.5) limits his fantasy upside, though, as does New York’s crowded depth chart at the 5. He’s nothing more than a low-upside, late-round flier now that he’s a Knick.

All average draft position info via FantasyPros. All rankings via Basketball Monster are based on nine-category leagues.