2017-18 fantasy basketball preview: Top 10 point guards

Heading into fantasy basketball drafts over the coming weeks, know this: point guard is the deepest position of any this year.

Sure, you’d like to land one of the top-tier floor generals with one of your first two or three picks, but if you decide to prioritize other positions, it isn’t the end of the world. Awaiting in you in the fifth or sixth round will be the likes of Ricky Rubio, Jeff Teague, Goran Dragic, Jrue Holiday and Dennis Schroder, among others. You won’t mistake any of those guys for Stephen Curry or Russell Westbrook, but each would be a suitable PG1 if your roster is strong elsewhere.

No position is more affected by your league’s particular scoring format than point guards, too. If you’re in a nine-category league with turnovers, the likes of Westbrook and John Wall become less appealing giving their propensity to cough the ball up. Point guards who aren’t as prone to giveaways, such as Mike Conley and Kemba Walker, only rise in value.

As many as seven point guards may go off the board within the first 20 picks this year, so don’t be alarmed if there’s an early rush on floor generals. Instead, consult these rankings to figure out who to target later on in your draft.

1. Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors

In eight-category formats, Westbrook should be atop point guard rankings, even if he isn’t likely to average a triple-double for the second straight year. Curry takes the cake in nine-category formats, though, as he has yet to ever average more than 3.8 giveaways per game in a season. (Westbrook, meanwhile, has averaged four or more in each of the past three years.) Curry won’t pour in rebounds or assists like Russ, but he’ll give your squad an overwhelming head start in points, free-throw percentage and 3-pointers. That makes him a no-brainer first-round pick regardless of format, and a potential top-three choice in nine-category leagues.

2. Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder

Not only did Westbrook lead the league in scoring last year and become the first player in 50-plus years to average a triple-double across an entire season, but he somehow saved his best for the fantasy playoffs. In his 23 full games after the All-Star break, the Brodie erupted for 34.0 points on 43.4 percent shooting, 11.3 rebounds, 11.1 assists, 3.3 triples and 1.7 steals, ranking first overall in nine-category formats despite his whopping 5.3 giveaways per game. Westbrook’s production is likely to dip with Paul George and Carmelo Anthony now in the fold, but he should still be good for roughly 25 points, 10 assists and seven rebounds per night. As such, he’s still a rock-solid first-round pick in nine-category formats and a no-brainer top-three pick in eight-cat.

 3. John Wall, Washington Wizards

The margin between John Wall and the next point guard in these rankings, Chris Paul, is razor-thin and largely depends upon your league’s format. Those in either eight-category leagues or nine-category head-to-head leagues shouldn’t be as deterred by Wall’s high number of turnovers per game, especially given the advantages he provides in points, assists and steals. The Kentucky product doesn’t knock down 3-pointers at a high rate — he averaged just 1.1 on 3.5 attempts per game last season — but he’s a nightly 20-10 threat who chipped in a career-high 2.0 takeaways in 2016-17. He’s a worthy late first- or early second-round pick regardless of format, but those in nine-category rotisserie leagues do need to take into account his propensity to cough the ball up.

4. Chris Paul, Houston Rockets

Can Chris Paul retain top-20 fantasy value while playing alongside a ball-dominant 2-guard in James Harden? Helping his cause will be the fast-paced system Houston runs under head coach Mike D’Antoni. The Rockets averaged nearly four more possessions per 48 minutes than the Los Angeles Clippers did last season, which should afford Paul additional opportunities to make a fantasy impact. He also knocked down 50.0 percent of his catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts in 2016-17, so a slight downtick in assists may be accompanied by a boost in long-range output. Paul turns the ball over far less often than Westbrook and Wall, which makes him more appealing in nine-category formats than eight-cat, but he’s a great second-round pick either way.

5. Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers

Like with Wall and Paul, the difference between Damian Lillard and Kyrie Irving may ultimately come down to owner preference. Irving is a higher-variance option since we haven’t yet seen how he’ll fare in Boston, whereas Lillard is the safer choice, albeit perhaps with a lower ceiling. With Lillard, you know you’re getting somewhere around 25 points, six assists, five rebounds, three 3-pointers and a steal per night, along with nearly 90 percent shooting from the charity stripe on a high volume of free-throw attempts. A lack of turnovers boosts Lillard’s appeal in nine-category formats — he averaged just 2.6 giveaways per game last season — but he should come off the board in the second round in both eight- and nine-category leagues.

6. Kyrie Irving, Boston Celtics

During his introductory press conference in Boston, Irving told reporters he pushed for a trade so he could be “in an environment that was conducive to my potential.” In other words, fantasy owners should expect a breakout season from the 25-year-old. Irving may not take a huge step forward in terms of scoring, but he’s almost guaranteed to set a new career high in assists and 3-pointers. Considering how infrequently he turns the ball over, he’ll be even more enticing in nine-category formats. If you take a safe player with your first-round pick — i.e., not Anthony Davis — Irving is a great shoot-for-the-moon second-rounder. Either way, he should be off the board by the end of the second round.

7. Kyle Lowry, Toronto Raptors

In average Yahoo and ESPN drafts, Kyle Lowry is somehow coming off the board after Isaiah Thomas, who’s likely to miss the first two months of the season (if not more), and Kemba Walker, who he finished a full round-and-a-half ahead of in terms of fantasy value last season. With the Raptors having lost DeMarre Carroll, Cory Joseph and Patrick Patterson during the offseason, Lowry may have to take on an ever larger load than he did in 2016-17, when he averaged 22.4 points on 46.4 percent shooting, 7.0 assists, 4.8 rebounds, 3.2 triples and 1.5 steals in a whopping 37.4 minutes per game. His field-goal percentage is likely to regress closer to his 42.4 percent career rate, but as long as he keeps pouring in assists, points, steals and threes while turning the ball over infrequently (2.9 times per game last season), he’ll make for a sound late second-rounder.

8. Kemba Walker, Charlotte Hornets

In the newly acquired Dwight Howard, Kemba Walker has his dream pick-and-roll partner. That should enable the Hornets point guard to set a new career high in assists, and it could help him boost his shooting efficiency as well. Walker poured in a personal-best 23.2 points on 44.4 percent shooting, 5.5 assists, 3.9 rebounds, 3.0 triples and 1.1 steals in 34.7 minutes for Charlotte last season, finishing as the 26th-ranked player on a per-game basis in nine-category leagues, so a top-25 finish is well in play this year. Given how rarely Walker turns over the ball — only 2.1 times per game last season — he’ll be a rock-solid early third-round pick in both eight- and nine-category formats.

9. Mike Conley, Memphis Grizzlies

After becoming the highest-paid player in NBA history last summer, Mike Conley responded with a career-best season, chipping in 20.5 points on 46.0 percent shooting, 6.3 assists, 3.5 rebounds, 2.5 triples and 1.3 steals in 33.2 minutes per game. That helped him finish as the 23rd-ranked player on a per-game basis in nine-category leagues, as both he and Marc Gasol had to shoulder a heavier load while injury-ravaged free-agent signing Chandler Parsons was in and out of the lineup. The Grizzlies signed Ben McLemore and Tyreke Evans this summer to give Conley and Gasol some reinforcements, but they’ll only offset the free-agent departures of Vince Carter, Zach Randolph and Tony Allen. As such, Conley deserves to be a mid- to late third-rounder in both eight- and nine-category formats.

10. Eric Bledsoe, Phoenix Suns

Most of the early-round point guards are safe investments, but that isn’t the case for Eric Bledsoe. Between his injury history and the risk of a late-season shutdown as the Suns pivot toward a youth movement—aka, tank like hell for a higher lottery pick—you have to factor in the possibility of him being unavailable as the fantasy playoffs begin. While healthy and active, though, Bledsoe is a well-rounded stat-sheet stuffer, as evidenced by the 21.1 points on 43.4 percent shooting, 6.3 assists, 4.8 rebounds, 1.6 treys and 1.4 steals he averaged in 33.0 minutes per game last season. Given the risks tied to his fantasy value, Bledsoe is best suited as a mid-fourth-round pick in eight- and nine-category formats.

Next: Every NBA team's Mount Rushmore

Honorable mentions

11. Ricky Rubio, Utah Jazz
12. Goran Dragic, Miami Heat
13. Jrue Holiday, New Orleans Pelicans
14. Jeff Teague, Minnesota Timberwolves
15. Dennis Schroder, Atlanta Hawks

All average draft position info via FantasyPros. All rankings via Basketball Monster are based on nine-category leagues.