How can Carmelo Anthony, Paul George and Russell Westbrook coexist on offense?
By Ben Ladner
Oklahoma City could hardly have done a better rebuilding job after the departure of Kevin Durant. After a one-year sideshow in which the Thunder pushed the limits of what a one-man team could be, the Thunder are a contender once again.
The acquisition of Carmelo Anthony alone doesn’t move the needle for a team competing for a title. But when evaluated within the context of Oklahoma City’s prior moves and existing pieces, what they paid to get Anthony — Doug McDermott, Enes Kanter, and Chicago’s 2018 second-round pick — it was a worthy price for a generational scorer starving for postseason success.
The integration of Anthony will require major adjustments not just to Anthony’s game, but to Russell Westbrook and Paul George’s as well. Last season, they all had usage rates of at least 28.9 and attempted at least 18 shots per game, while serving as the clear first option for their respective teams.
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That can no longer be the case. Westbrook is the best player on the team and still holds the reins. But he’s also the least flexible player on the team. Any team with Westbrook on it is confined, in many ways, to playing a certain style. Will he relinquish some of the control that made him and MVP in order for the rest of the team to thrive?
Westbrook and Anthony were tied for the second-most field goal attempts per game from 15-19 feet. George was fifth. Anthony and George both canned over 45 percent of those looks, but those are inherently inefficient shots.
Westbrook has a proclivity for jacking quick 17-footers early in the shot clock; George likes to pull up instead of getting all the way to the basket; Anthony lives at the elbows. With better teammates and smaller individual burdens, they should find better looks within the flow of the offense, and the long 2-points will be fewer and farther between. Stretch some of those shots out to the 3-point line, and they become markedly more efficient.
Anthony and George both shot over 42 percent on catch-and-shoot 3s and Anthony was in the 93rd percentile leaguewide as a spot-up player. He and George will be a breath of fresh air for a team that ranked dead last in the NBA in 3-point percentage a season ago and whose floor spacing rarely instilled fear in opposing defenses.
Oklahoma City can utilize its newfound shooting around Westbrook, who will now have more open lanes to the basket than he did in 2017 with the likes of Domantas Sabonis and Semaj Christon around him. Westbrook is a spread pick-and-roll point guard, and George and Anthony are ideal complements to that scheme. Spot up around a Westbrook pick-and-roll, and they’ll feast on plays like this:
Westbrook generated 0.89 points per possession scoring as a ball-handler in pick-and-rolls and has developed a strong connection with Steven Adams, who averaged 1.09 points per possession as a roll man. That duo could become lethal with increased real estate for Adams to rumble down the lane:
Another way to keep Anthony involved on offense would be to use him as a screener. He’s probably a full-time four at this point in his career, especially given Oklahoma City’s lack of frontcourt depth. As he’s done with Team USA in past summers, Anthony can be a weapon in the pick-and-pop. If Westbrook sucks both defenders into the paint on his drives, Anthony will feast on kickout 3s. Take away Anthony on the pop, and Westbrook is getting all the way to the rim. Anthony should become hyper-efficient in an even more specialized role.
The same goes for George, who can also act either as a ball-handler or a screener. George was in the 92nd percentile of players as a pick-and-roll ball handler and the 78th percentile as a roll/pop man. Guards and wings are setting more ball screens than ever, and George creates mismatches with his size and athleticism. Stick some poor guard or cement-footed brute on him and George will go to work.
Between George and Anthony, two like-sized forwards, the Thunder should overwhelm opposing defenses with their offensive firepower. Even if teams hide their worst defenders on Andre Roberson — and they will — they still have to find two capable defenders to cover George and Anthony. Oh, and there’s also the matter of chasing Westbrook. One of those three will have a lopsided advantage almost every night.
Roberson should still start; he’s one of the handful of best perimeter defenders in the league, and his defense is far more valuable against starters than against backups. But Billy Donovan may start giving him the quick hook in favor of Patrick Patterson, a superior shooter and plus/minus darling. Patterson could also play the five in some lineups, with Alex Abrines on the wing, giving Oklahoma City true five-out lineups with shooting at every position.
Westbrook, George, and Anthony will likely only share the floor at the start of halves and in the last five to seven minutes of each game. That leaves more than half the game for Billy Donovan to stagger his stars, keeping one or two on the floor at all times and distributing touches in a way that keeps everyone satisfied.
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Every move made by a contending team must be analyzed with the Warriors as a frame of reference. In a league where everyone is gearing up to beat one team, the Thunder might be most equipped to match up with the defending champs. Defensively, they’re long, athletic, and versatile. Offensively, they’ll pressure the rim and shoot the lights out. Now it’s a matter of accepting role, embracing sacrifice, and making the pieces fit.