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First year expectations for Kevin Keatts at NC State

By Gabe Esquivel

New N.C. State head men's basketball coach Kevin Keatts, left, talks to the crowd as athletic director Debbie Yow listens during an introductory press conference on Sunday, March 19, 2017 at Reynolds Coliseum in Raleigh, N.C. (Ethan Hyman/Raleigh News
New N.C. State head men's basketball coach Kevin Keatts, left, talks to the crowd as athletic director Debbie Yow listens during an introductory press conference on Sunday, March 19, 2017 at Reynolds Coliseum in Raleigh, N.C. (Ethan Hyman/Raleigh News /
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What can NC State expect from Kevin Keatts in his first season?

The NC State Wolfpack are coming off a very disappointing 2016-17 campaign. A squad that had a lot of talent and promise collapsed and struggled to a 15-17 record. The reasons for this range from lack of on-court leadership as well as very poor coaching, resulting in the firing of Mark Gottfried.

Enter Kevin Keatts, a younger, up-and-coming coach who reigns from the wing of Rick Pitino. Keatts was hired as the Wolfpack’s head coach very soon after the season ended for his former school, UNC-Wilmington. It did not take long for the hype in Raleigh to grow. Keatts was very successful in Wilmington, going 72-28 over three years with two NCAA Tournament appearances. Ironically, the teams that knocked him out of the tournament are ACC teams, so he will have plenty of chances to get his revenge now. Because of this success, Keatts was one of the most sought-after mid-major coaches in the country.

The Wolfpack will be following a similar mold to UNC-Wilmington, in that they will look to run on offense, space the floor, and play high-intensity defense. The biggest question in year one will be whether they currently have the personnel for the system to succeed. I would bargain that they do, and they are becoming better suited for the system. Lennard Freeman, who missed last season with injury, has dropped 20 pounds since Keatts was hired in the process of getting conditioned.

Keatts likes to run three guards in his offense; he currently has a 5-deep backcourt of impactful players, and it could be six if Braxton Beverly gets a waiver. Markell Johnson will be a key figure, as his athleticism, defensive ability, and playmaking prowess will likely prove him as the engine of the squad. Graduate transfers Al Freeman (Baylor) and Sam Hunt (NC A&T) will be critical in adding reliable 3-point shooting to the team. Freshman Lavar Batts, Keatts’ first NC State commit, is a perfect fit for the system, and all-around wing Torin Dorn will be another key figure. There are also two uber-athletic combo forwards, Shaun Kirk and Darius Hicks, who were sore thumbs in Gottfried’s system, but should be maximized under the new regime. Three big men include the versatile, athletic Abdul-Malik Abu, the raw talent of Omer Yurtseven, and the enforcing body of Lennard Freeman.

While the team is not a perfect fit, there is versatility and athleticism in bunches, and some surprising depth. Keatts will be able to go at least 10-deep in his first season. This will be key in preserving energy and rotating the fresh legs needed for the fast-pace style.

Keatts has already gotten to work on the 2018 recruiting class as well. Last weekend, the Wolfpack received a commitment from athletic Top 100 combo forward Immanuel Bates. Keatts and the Pack are also working hard on wing Jairus Hamilton and big man David McCormack. Not to mention, the new head coach has nabbed two transfers who will be eligible in the 2018 season in Devon Daniels (Utah) and CJ Bryce (UNCW). 3 great system fits are already locked in for the 2018 season, and it is clear to see that Keatts is ready for results.

Looking at this season, though, it will be crucial to have patience. In the same right, the team must take advantage of the early games. The non-conference schedule is, in short, an easy one. Apart from games against Penn State, Arizona, and two other quality teams to be determined in the Battle 4 Atlantis, they are all games that should be won. Of the 13 out-of-conference games, it is reasonable to expect a record of 11-2 or 10-3 heading into conference play.

When conference play kicks off against Clemson, the Wolfpack will know to expect a gauntlet. Though, with just about every ACC team taking a step back from last season, the field may be slightly easier to navigate. It will be expected that Kevin Keatts improves on the Wolfpack’s 4-14 conference record from last season that landed them in 14th place. We can expect NC State to compete for a top 10 spot in the ACC, and very possibly land one. The Pack should be around 8-10 wins in league play, which was good for 7th to 11th place last season.

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This brings an expected win total for Kevin Keatts’ first season to be in the range of 17-21 wins, which is a solid improvement from last season’s 15-17. This will put them right on the NCAA Tournament bubble. It will all come down to the quality of wins of losses; if they can beat the teams that they should and sneak an upset or two, they could very well land themselves in the tournament. An appearance in the NIT may be slightly more likely, and that would not be a disappointment at all.

As long as Keatts shows the improvement that he is expected to, the Wolfpack faithful should be content at worst. Bringing the program to the stature that the fans desire will take time, and Keatts will show the first steps to that in this season.