This Week in Stats: Manchester City tear through sorry Palace
Manchester City set records against Roy Hodgson’s Palace, Brighton can defend a lead and why Oumar Niasse may only be a temporary saviour.
When Crystal Palace fired Frank de Boer and hired Roy Hodgson, they took a backward step in developmental terms. Instead of continuing to pursue a more patient style which is easier on the eye, they hired a man whose history is far more in line with that of Sam Allardyce, the Eagles’ previous manager.
Solid, direct and tough to beat; these are the hallmarks of a Hodgson side. Manchester City took one look at that manifesto, and tore it to shreds. And not just in a run-of-the-mill way, but in a record-setting one too.
City had 10 chances which Opta classify as “clear-cut.” These are the golden opportunities where you’d expect the striker to score, and Guardiola’s men hit double figures on that front. Let’s put that into context.
This was the first time a team has had 10 clear-cut chances in a Premier League match from August 2015 onwards. Fourteen of the 20 teams in the division have had 10 top quality chances or fewer in total this season. This includes Spurs and Chelsea, too, so isn’t limited to the usual teams you find outside the big six.
FiveThirtyEight rated City’s shots as worth a total of 5.0 expected goals. This is the highest xG figure in their dataset, which goes back to the start of 2016-17. As Palace mustered 0.6, the difference was 4.4; this has only been bettered once, when Liverpool beat Hull 4.8-0.2 on xG last season.
Nobody expected Palace to get anything on Saturday. Manchester City are lethal when they’re in the mood; just ask Liverpool. But the stats from their mauling of Palace show Hodgson has a lot of work to do yet in order to tighten them up to his required level.
Brighton can defend a lead
Brighton picked up their second home win in a row, by beating Newcastle. As with their victory over the other Albion two weeks ago, the Seagulls triumphed despite having no clear-cut chances while their opponents mustered two. Brighton also had fewer shots and touches in the penalty box than the opposition in both games.
Their previous victory was 3-1, so a little more comfortable. But there were other similarities which go beyond the stats mentioned above.
After going 3-0 up against West Brom, Brighton didn’t have a single shot in the remaining 27 minutes of the match. Against Newcastle, they managed one in the 39 minutes after taking the lead. By comparison, the Baggies and Magpies had nine and 10 attempts at goal respectively in those periods.
Only eight of those 19 shots were in the box, though, and only one of those was unblocked, in the center of the box and from closer than the penalty spot. West Brom managed to get a goal back, and it would’ve been costly had Newcastle done likewise. Brighton also took the lead at Bournemouth, but were unable to hold on.
They’re showing good signs of being able to keep teams out, though, and that will serve them well. There are seven teams with a worse ‘shots in the box’ difference than them. Brighton will be well on the road to staying up if they can maintain that form.
Next: Liverpool 3-2 Leicester: 3 takeaways
Everton got lucky with Niasse against Bournemouth
Has Oumar Niasse saved Ronald Koeman’s job? That might be pushing it a bit, but the Dutchman could’ve been forgiven for thinking the worst when Bournemouth took the lead on Saturday.
Everton have certainly had a tough run of fixtures, having faced City, Chelsea, Spurs and United in their last four. Their fans were right to be concerned with the performances (both on the eye, and in the underlying stats) though. After all, they’ve still had fewer shots on target than Mohamed Salah this season.
If you could pick any Premier League fixture to follow a bad run, Bournemouth at home would certainly be at the top end of the list. The Cherries take more touches per shot in the box than anyone else, have only had two clear-cut chances all season and are bottom of FiveThirtyEight’s expected goal difference table.
But they took the lead here. Josh King was allowed to advance through midfield before rifling in a shot from the edge of the area. He scored 16 goals last season, but King has yet to have a clear-cut chance in 2017-18. He won’t get close to that tally this term unless Bournemouth’s creative talents up their game.
Niasse was summoned from the bench five minutes later, and turned the game around. A word of warning for Everton fans; he had two shots in the match, and scored them both. He might’ve saved the day against Bournemouth, but he’s not going to keep up that hit rate. With Burnley up next and also at home, Koeman will hope Niasse’s hot streak extends for another week at least.