2017-18 fantasy basketball preview: Top 10 shooting guards
While fantasy basketball owners have no shortage of enticing options from which to select at point guard, the same can’t be said at shooting guard. Barring a surprise, only two 2-guards are likely to be selected within the first two rounds of 10-team drafts, although they’ll start flying off the board once the middle rounds arrive.
The supposed death of the shooting guard position is largely overblown, but it’s in a strange transitory period outside of the top few options. Dwyane Wade and Vince Carter, who were once early-round fantasy fixtures in their primes, are now in the twilight of their respective careers. The next generation of 2-guards appears to be on the precipice of emerging, but the likes of Rodney Hood, Gary Harris, Devin Booker and Victor Oladipo each enter the 2017-18 season with at least one major question hanging over their heads.
Which shooting guards should you be targeting toward the top of your fantasy drafts, and where should you be taking them? Assuming a nine-category head-to-head format, here’s how to break down the cream of the crop at the 2-guard spot.
1. James Harden, Houston Rockets
Fantasy owners owe a shout-out to Mike D’Antoni for unleashing James Harden like never before. The Beard set career highs across the board last season while serving as the Rockets’ full-time ball-handler under D’Antoni, which helped him finish as the top-ranked player in eight-category leagues and seventh overall in nine-cat. With Chris Paul now in Houston, Harden figures to spend more time operating off the ball this season, but that shouldn’t prevent him from another top-five finish in eight-category leagues. Though his assists are likely to dip, his turnovers should as well, which boosts his appeal in nine-category formats. Harden is a no-brainer early first-round pick in eight-cat and a mid- to late first-rounder in nine-cat.
2. Jimmy Butler, Minnesota Timberwolves
The “Three Alphas” turned into the Jimmy Butler show in Chicago last year, as he put up career-best stats to almost single-handedly drag the Bulls into the playoffs while finishing as the 10th-ranked player on a per-game basis in nine-category leagues. In Minnesota, he’ll be splitting touches with Karl-Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins and Jeff Teague rather than Rajon Rondo and Dwyane Wade, but that shouldn’t scare fantasy owners off from spending an early-round pick on him. If Butler’s per-game scoring output dips slightly, he’s likely to make up for it with increased efficiency, rebounding, assists and steals, and he’s a strong, high-volume free-throw shooter, too. He’s a great second-round pick regardless of format.
3. CJ McCollum, Portland Trail Blazers
After a wild spending spree in 2016, the Portland Trail Blazers had to atone for their mistakes this offseason, which caused them to salary-dump Allen Crabbe to the Brooklyn Nets. That’s only good news for CJ McCollum’s fantasy value, as the Blazers now lack established talent behind both he and Damian Lillard. McCollum poured in a career-high 23.0 points, 3.6 rebounds, 3.6 assists and 2.3 triples while leading the league with a 91.2 percent mark from the charity stripe, which helped him finish just outside the top 25 on a per-game basis in nine-category leagues. With Crabbe no longer in the fold, expect McCollum to flirt with top-25 upside again, making him an excellent third-round target.
4. Klay Thompson, Golden State Warriors
Klay Thompson doesn’t do much for fantasy owners outside of score and knock down 3-pointers, but that doesn’t stop him from posting early-round fantasy value. Though Kevin Durant’s arrival in Golden State last summer threatened Thompson’s fantasy upside, he still finished as the 31st-ranked player on a per-game basis in nine-category leagues. You shouldn’t expect many rebounds, assists or steals from the Washington State product, but he’ll single-handedly give your team a huge head start in 3-pointers every week. As such, he’s worth a look toward the end of the third or beginning of the fourth round.
5. Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards
Injuries made Bradley Beal a fantasy tease for his first four seasons in the NBA, but he stayed healthy in 2016-17 to post a career year. Beal set new personal-best marks in points (23.1), assists (3.5), 3-pointers (2.9) and field-goal percentage (48.2) to finish as the 29th-ranked player on a per-game basis in nine-category leagues. Given his history with stress reactions, risk-averse fantasy owners may still want to steer clear of him with an early-round pick, but his top-30 upside otherwise justifies that draft-day price. Like Thompson, expect to see Beal come off the board by the beginning of the fourth round at the latest.
6. DeMar DeRozan, Toronto Raptors
If you don’t land one of the top five 2-guards, there’s a significant drop-off to this next tier. DeMar DeRozan is a stat-sheet stuffer who posted a career-best 27.3 points on 46.7 percent shooting, 5.2 rebounds, 3.9 assists and 1.1 steals in 2016-17, but he only finished as the 46th-ranked player on a per-game basis in nine-category leagues because of his non-contributions in 3-pointers (0.4). Head coach Dwane Casey wants DeRozan to add that to his game, which would send his fantasy value skyrocketing. Push him up your draft board if he starts bombing away from deep during the preseason, but otherwise, target him as a late fourth- or early fifth-rounder.
7. Victor Oladipo, Indiana Pacers
Is this the year Victor Oladipo turns his potential into fantasy production? He’s long been a tease for the fantasy community, but now that he’s one of the faces of the Indiana Pacers’ nascent rebuild, Oladipo has post-hype breakout written all over him. The Indiana product was marginalized alongside Russell Westbrook in Oklahoma City last season, but Darren Collison and Cory Joseph aren’t the type of high-usage point guards to slice into his production in a similar way. ‘Dipo has the potential to emerge as a 20-5-5 nightly threat, making him a worthy gamble in the fifth or sixth round.
8. Nicolas Batum, Charlotte Hornets
After suffering a wrist injury during his last season in Portland, Nicolas Batum has struggled with his shooting efficiency ever since. The 28-year-old Frenchman shot just 40.3 percent overall and 33.3 percent from 3-point range this past season, but he still managed to finish as the 59th-ranked player on a per-game basis in nine-category leagues due to his per-game averages of 15.1 points, 6.2 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.8 treys and 1.1 steals. Having Dwight Howard now in Charlotte should draw away some defensive attention from Batum, which could enable him to boost his shooting percentages back into the mid-40s and mid-30s, respectively. That top-50 upside means he should be a fifth- or sixth-rounder.
9. Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns
Heading into his third NBA season, Devin Booker is already on the verge of fantasy stardom. The Kentucky product exploded for 22.1 points on 42.3 percent shooting, 3.4 assists, 3.2 rebounds, 1.9 treys and 0.9 steals in 35.0 minutes last season, finishing as the 57th-ranked player in eight-category leagues. His mediocre field-goal percentage and high numbers of turnovers (3.1 per game) hurt his value in nine-category formats, and he isn’t likely to substantially improve on either of those in the 2017-18 campaign. If he starts knocking 3-pointers down at a higher clip, though, it won’t matter. Given his top-50 ceiling, he’ll make for a strong sixth- or seventh-round pick.
10. Gary Harris, Denver Nuggets
Gary Harris’ average draft position is hilariously low on both Yahoo (100) and ESPN (121), but savvy fantasy owners shouldn’t mind that one bit. Harris was limited to just 57 games last season, but he ranked 55th on a per-game basis after averaging 14.9 points on 50.2 percent shooting, 3.1 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.9 triples and 1.2 steals in just 31.3 minutes. The Nuggets added another sweet-passing big man in Paul Millsap this offseason and lost top wing scorer Danilo Gallinari, which opens the door for Harris to increase his scoring output while maintaining his elite efficiency. His expert consensus rank falls just within the top 75, so you may have to go reaching for him. Luckily, he’ll provide a strong return on investment in the sixth or seventh round.
Next: 25-under-25 -- The best young players in the NBA
Honorable mentions
- D’Angelo Russell, Brooklyn Nets
- Avery Bradley, Detroit Pistons
- Rodney Hood, Utah Jazz
- Tim Hardaway Jr., New York Knicks
- Eric Gordon, Houston Rockets
Other positional rankings
All average draft position info via FantasyPros. All rankings via Basketball Monster are based on nine-category leagues.