NFL DFS Breakdown: Week 4 Top Picks and Plays

NFL DFS Breakdown Week 4:  Top Picks and Plays

I was fortunate enough to cash in on some of my bold calls last week, and hope to provide a few more for week four. While the main slate on DraftKings is quite smaller than normal, especially with the elimination of the Sunday night game, I still have a few leans that I feel quite strongly about. We’re still working in small sample sizes for this week’s NFL DFS Breakdown, but with each passing week, we’re able to aggregate more and more data in hopes that it leads to some fantasy success. This week, I’ll highlight underpriced value plays, matchups to exploit, and my hot takes.

NFL DFS Breakdown: Key Skill Position Injuries

Darren Sproles – PHI (RB) – Beneficiaries: Wendell Smallwood, LeGarrette Blount

Top Projected Team Totals Based on Vegas Odds (as of 9/28): New England – 29.25, Kansas City – 28.25, Atlanta – 28.25, Seattle – 27.25, New Orleans – 26.75, Dallas – 26.75

NFL DFS Breakdown Week 4: Underpriced Values

Tyrod Taylor – BUF (QB) – DK – $5300

After a big win against one of the premier teams in the AFC, Buffalo will head to Mercedes-Benz stadium to take on the Atlanta Falcons. Tyrod Taylor is an excellent punt play on DraftKings this week at only $5300. This is a much better bargain relative to FanDuel and a decent matchup, against a suspect defense. I wouldn’t expect Tyrod to light it up, but given the rushing floor, he’s an option to consider in cash games.

Evan Engram – NYG (TE) – DK – $3000

Rookie tight end, Evan Engram is another punt option on DraftKings this week. Engram costs a measly $3000 and has seen solid usage to start the season. Engram is coming off of back to back games with seven targets, including a touchdown against Detroit. The offensive line has prohibited the Giants from getting much of anything going on the ground and they’ve therefore turned to the quick passing attack.

With Eli looking to get the ball out quick, I would expect Engram, the best pass catching tight end of the draft, to see a lot of targets.

Ezekiel Elliot – DAL (RB) – FD – $8500

After an uphill battle against Denver, the running game got back on track, and Zike recorded 22 rushes for 80 yards on Monday night. He’s simply underpriced on FanDuel this week, as they continue to price down elite running backs. Dallas is roughly a touchdown favorite, with a team total of 27 points.

Zach Ertz – PHI (PHI) – FD – $6900

Zach Ertz has become one of the most reliable tightends in the league, given his consistent volume. Ertz received 10 targets in his last two starts, and is in a good matchup to do so again, against the Chargers. Look for the Eagles to exploit this matchup over the middle of the field, as corners like Casey Hayward make it difficult to pass on the outside.

NFL DFS Breakdown Week 4: Match ups to Exploit

Larry Fitzgerald vs. K’Waun Williams

Larry Fitzgerald will draw a matchup with slot corner, K’Waun Williams. Through three games, Williams has graded out as the 94th best corner out of 110 qualifiers, via PFF. After an outlier performance, only receiving six targets against the Colts, Fitzgerald got back on track last Monday, with 13 catches on 15 targets. Expect Palmer to turn to his safety blanket even more, given the exploitable matchup.

NFL DFS Breakdown: SD Wideouts vs. Eagles Secondary

No real surprise here, any time the Eagles are playing, consider the pass catchers on the opposing team.

Given Anthony Lynn‘s incompetence through three games, we can’t guarantee that the Chargers will take advantage of this match up, but it appears as if most offensives know where the ball should be going against the Eagles defense.

NFL DFS Breakdown Week 4: Hot Takes

Carolina and New England record over 55 points

After an opening total of 47 points, both sharp and public action has ballooned this total out to 49.5 points in most spots. The big question here is, which Cam Newton shows up? After bombing at home against the New Orleans defense, its hard to really have any faith. However, this New England defense is not much better. With ownership down, pricing down, in a good spot, I may have a decent amount of exposure to Cam Newton this week. It scares me to say it, but this game has shootout written all over it.

Philip Rivers scores over 25 DraftKings points

If you’re like me, stuck holding a Chargers ticket the past two weeks, my condolences. Whether its stubborn or not, I’ll be going back to the well here with LA, against a visiting Eagles team. After the huge win over division rival, New York, in walk off fashion, the Eagles will travel west to take on the Chargers. The Chargers have not done themselves any favors, dropping three winnable games and forcing themselves into, last ditch effort mode. Can LA overcome the coaching woes of Anthony Lynn? We shall see. If so, I’d expect Rivers to figure it out against this Eagles secondary.

NFL DFS Breakdown: A Cleveland wide receiver will be on the winning Milly Maker team

Cincinnati played a good half of football last week in Green Bay, but as Tony Romo mentioned, once the game script for Lazor was done, the Bengals had nothing to offer. Lazor is well known for scripting the first few drives of games, and it proved effective last week, however, once the Packers got a feel for what Cincinnati was trying to do, they held them to only a field goal throughout the rest of the game.

I’ll be looking for the Cleveland to win outright, and go over the posted total. The problem here is I have no idea which Cleveland receiver is going to get fed. After Higgins failed as the chalk last week, and Kenny Britt got most the targets, I’m not sure where to go. I will say, I’ll be leaning more to the outside receivers of the Browns, Britt and Louis. Dre Kirkpatrick has been exposed so far this year, and if Kizer can make the throws, I think they’ll put up points.

Next: FanDuel NFL Lineups Week 4

Best of luck in your NFL DFS contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all your Fantasy Football and DFS news and analysis leading up to Week 4!