Four pivotal questions the Raptors need to answer to contend this season

This summer marked a crossroads for the Raptors. With Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka both free agents and DeMar DeRozan under contract for three more years (he has a player option for 2020-21), Masai Ujiri and the Raptors’ front office had a choice to make: run it back, win a lot of games and remain a long shot for the NBA Finals or move on from the current core and pivot to a timetable that better fits with the team’s young pieces.

The case for rebuilding was strong. The Raptors, coming off two consecutive playoff losses to Cleveland, were built around two aging stars and an inefficient midrange chucker. In all likelihood, this team is not going to seriously compete for an NBA championship. Let those vets walk, trade that chucker for assets, wait out LeBron James’ reign and build a contender for a more winnable era.

But there’s value in staying competitive, getting home court advantage in a playoff series and lurking in that second tier of teams, especially when for a franchise in the midst of the best four-year run of its history. There’s a good chance the Raptors won’t be this good again, even if they did shift to the youth movement.

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Maybe Isaiah Thomas’ hip injury is more serious than we thought. Maybe LeBron suffers an untimely injury or bolts for the Western Conference in a year. Just like that, the Raptors’ window could open. By staying committed to a really good team, Ujiri has positioned Toronto to seize its opportunity if and when it comes.

With that in mind, here are four major questions that will impact Toronto’s ability to stay competitive in the East.

Will DeMar DeRozan shoot 3s?

This has become a perennial preseason question, and every year, DeRozan claims he will add the 3-ball to his arsenal. But every spring, his inability and unwillingness to fire from deep comes back to bite the Raptors in the postseason.

DeRozan’s 2017 3-point attempt rate of eight percent was his lowest since 2011, and his lack of floor spacing hampered the Raptors’ ability to effectively execute in the playoffs. Defenders can more freely help off of DeRozan when he doesn’t have the ball because he’s not as likely to punish late closeouts with triples. The defense can also hedge and recover or go under screens more easily because he doesn’t pose the threat of firing away from long range.

Compare that to Lowry, one of the best off-the-dribble 3-point shooters in the league:

DeRozan doesn’t need to be Lowry or Steph Curry — or even Jrue Holiday — from deep. But he does need variation to an offensive game that has become outdated and exploitable.

DeRozan has the capability to be a solid 3-point shooter. His mechanics are sound and his ability to attack the basket would complement a long-range game nicely. You don’t average 27 points for a playoff team without being a great player. But until he steps behind the arc, he’ll continue to place a ceiling on how good he, and his team, can be.

What does a full year of Lowry and Ibaka look like?

Lowry and Ibaka played only three regular season games together last year. Lowry is the Raptors’ best all-around player, and Ibaka might be their most important defensive piece. Both are probably slightly past their primes, but still have plenty of zip and bounce left.

The Lowry/Ibaka pick-and-roll is an intriguing combo, even if Ibaka was a below-average finisher in those situations last season (0.94 points per possession as a roll man). But consider the context behind that number: for most of the season, Ibaka was partnering with the likes of Elfrid Payton, Evan Fournier and D.J. Augustin on a team bereft of shooting.

Lowry is an upgrade over those guys like a Terrapin is an upgrade over a Bud Light. He makes everyone on the floor better, especially his pick-and-roll partners, because he puts immense pressure on the defense at all times. Lowry produced 1.05 points per possession as the ball-handler in pick-and-rolls last year, one of the best marks in the league.

Ibaka will benefit tremendously from that. He isn’t as terrifying a roll man as DeAndre Jordan or Rudy Gobert, but he can play that role, and he’s a far better jump shooter than most pure roll men. With defenders chasing Lowry, Ibaka will have ample room to roll, pop or post out of his screens, as Jonas Valanciunas does here:

Ibaka’s ability to space the floor also allows him to spot up around pick and rolls, rather than just serve as a screener.

If Ibaka’s man stays home and takes away the jumper, it opens corridors for teammates to drive and roll to the basket.

It’s unclear whether the Raps can post top-10 defense with their current personnel, especially with no true stopper on the wing. Ibaka isn’t the same force he was in his early OKC days, and Lowry’s height, along with his age, will put a limit on his defensive impact. But Ibaka is more center than power forward at this point. The Raptors can configure quick, switchable lineups predicated on his mobility (assuming they can find a serviceable small-ball four).

The key for this team will always be Lowry, who has long been one of the best point guards in the league. The Raptors have been significantly worse with Lowry off the floor the last few years, and given his value and role, that probably won’t change this year.

How impactful will the young guys be?

While their most important players are veterans, most of the Raptors’ depth consists of players aged 25 or younger. Those guys will be important pieces not just for the future, but in the present as well.

The most impactful youngster should be Norman Powell, with whom Dwane Casey had a hot-and-cold relationship. Powell played a crucial role in Toronto’s first-round playoff win against Milwaukee, as he paired his tenacious defense with scorching hot shooting to swing the series the Raptors’ way. With DeMarre Carroll shipped off to Brooklyn, Powell could start next to DeRozan as a 3-and-D wing (though C.J. Miles might beat Powell out for that job).

Pascal Siakam, who started at power forward before the team acquired Ibaka, should assume Patrick Patterson’s role as the backup four, while Jakob Poeltl and Lucas Nogueira will soak up the backup center minutes by committee. Siakam could even emerge as a part of some of Toronto’s quicker lineups. Expect Delon Wright and Fred Van Vleet to shoulder larger roles after the departure of Cory Joseph.

First-round draft pick OG Anunoby won’t be available at the start of the season due to a knee injury he suffered in January, but there’s reason to believe he could contribute right away once he gets healthy. Anunoby is a versatile defender who can play either forward position, something Toronto lost when P.J. Tucker signed with the Rockets, and will be one of the only combo forwards on Toronto’s roster. If he ever gets into the rotation, look for him to join the club of rookie “LeBron specialists” in the playoffs.

Of course, no discussion of the Raptors’ youth would be complete without mention of Bruno Caboclo, who remains as interesting a prospect as he was when the Raptors drafted him in 2014. He’s entering the final year of his rookie contract, and if Toronto intends to keep him around, it needs to get a sense of what he is and, more importantly, what he can be in the NBA.

That requires giving him opportunity at the NBA level. The young Brazilian has only logged 106 NBA minutes in three years. That is not a large enough sample size to learn anything about anyone, let alone a raw prospect in the formative years of his career. Expect to see more Bruno Caboclo than ever, if for no other reason than for the Raptors to get some data on him.

What is Valanciunas’ role?

If Ibaka is the Raptors’ best option at center, where does that leave Valanciunas? He’s only 24, yet his minutes have decreased every year since 2014. His usage rate dipped below 20 last season, and given the way the league is trending away from post-up brutes, he could become less of a focus going forward.

Valanciunas is not a bad player; he’s skilled and efficient, and has become one of the most productive rebounders and pick-and-roll finishers in the league. But those positives don’t entirely mask some of his negatives, namely outside shooting and defense. Players that can’t defend on the perimeter, protect the rim or knock down outside shots simply aren’t that valuable in the playoffs anymore. Thus, it’s unclear how much value Valanciunas actually provides.

While his per-36 numbers are impressive, team statistics suggest he doesn’t offer much that the Raptors don’t get elsewhere:

Raptors with Valanciunas on vs. off (2016-17 regular season)

The vast majority of Toronto’s offense flows through Lowry or DeRozan, and Ibaka is a better floor spacer and defender than Valanciunas. In short, Valanciunas’ skills are largely marginalized when he shares the floor with the rest of the Raptors’ best players.

One solution to that might be to bring Valanciunas off the bench or sub him out earlier in games so that fewer of his minutes line up with Lowry and DeRozan’s. A functional sixth man role would allow Valanciunas to feast on opposing teams’ backup centers, something Greg Monroe and Zach Randolph did last year, without having to defer to superior offensive players.

Defense may be an issue that cannot be worked around, especially if Valanciunas doesn’t add a 3-pointer to his arsenal. The best teams in the Eastern Conference can render him unplayable in the playoffs because he simply isn’t quick enough to switch screens or cover stretchy bigs. Valanciunas only averaged 1.5 blocks per 100 possessions, one of the worst rates among starting centers, and defended the rim at an average level.

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Valanciunas will continue to be a fine player for the Raptors and will play plenty of quality minutes, especially given the dearth of combo forwards on the team. But much like DeRozan’s lack of outside shooting, he puts a limit on how successful his team can be against the top-tier teams of the Eastern Conference.