College Football Picks Against The Spread Afternoon September 30, 2017

TAMPA, FL – JANUARY 7: The National Championship Trophy during the College Football Playoff National Championship Media Day on January 7, 2017 at Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Brian Blanco/Getty Images) /

College Football Picks Against The Spread Afternoon September 30, 2017

I had a solid week again in week 4 of the college football season. I am now 17 games above .500 on the season and 48 betting points to the good. Things are looking up, but there is a lot of college football left with conference play in full swing.

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For those of you that are new here, I put myself out there every week. For the last six years, I have picked every single college football game. Sounds easy, right? I thought so too. So I have picked them all against the spread. That significantly increases the degree of difficulty.

I take the average of the odds from the six major Vegas casinos and round that to the nearest half point. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other football.

Some sites will sell you top ten picks for a fee. Some will even give you a couple of free picks to lure you in. This is every game picked, all for free.

This contains the picks for FBS vs. FBS games only. It is too hard to get an accurate spread on games that involve 1-AA teams.

I will assign a point value “bet” on each game, between one and five points. That way you can see just how confident I am in each pick. Look for those at the end of each line. I am up 27 points after the first two weeks so far.

I cannot be responsible for you losing any of your worldly possessions, significant others, or limbs to a loan shark. This is for entertainment purposes only! I am a simple person. I cannot have that on my conscience.

We are down to just 54 games this weekend. Only one game features a 1-AA team, so that means I have 53 games to pick, and most of them are conference tilts. This is when things start to get interesting! 18 of those 53 kick off between 3:30 and 7:00 eastern. Let’s check out where the money is in these games!

OXFORD, OH – SEPTEMBER 16: Hayden Moore #8 of the Cincinnati Bearcats throws a pass against the Miami Ohio Redhawks during the second half at Yager Stadium on September 16, 2017 in Oxford, Ohio. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images) /

Texas State at Wyoming(-16.5)(2): This is a lot of points for an offense that has struggled this season. That said, the Bobcats have been nothing to write home about either. I think I have to go with Wyoming at home, though I may regret it.

Connecticut at SMU(-16.5)(3): I don’t really get why this line is falling. SMU is not “back” per se, but there is a lot of talent offensively that UConn just doesn’t have the horses on defense to keep up with. SMU wins going away.

Arizona State at Stanford(-17.5)(3): This is too many. While I do agree that Stanford’s offense was much better without Chryst at quarterback, it must be taken with a grain of salt since it was against UCLA. The Bruins have been gashed by everyone this year. Stanford wins, but not by this much. Give me Sparky.

Eastern Michigan at Kentucky(-14.5)(2): I don’t like that half at all. Eastern Michigan is not a bad team, but they did just lose to Ohio at home. I think I still have to take Kentucky here.

Iowa at Michigan State(-3.5)(5): Nope! I’m not buying this at all! The Spartans got blown out by Notre Dame last weekend. Iowa suffered a tough loss, but it was to a top five team. Iowa is still much better than Sparty on offense. Iowa by at least a touchdown, and maybe more.

Miami(OH) at (22)Notre Dame(-20.5)(3): The Redhawks just aren’t that good. The Irish just covered Michigan State by this in East Lansing. They shouldn’t have much problem doing it to Miami at home.

(24)Mississippi State at (13)Auburn(-8.5)(3): This line is down a couple of points, and I don’t really get why. Auburn has a strong defense and an offense that is starting to finally get going. Mississippi State hasn’t really shown much on the road. They were dominated by a Georgia team that is fundamentally similar to Auburn. Tigers by double digits.

Akron(-2.5) at Bowling Green(4): This is a joke. Akron at least hung with Troy. Bowling Green lost to South Dakota. Not South Dakota State……South Dakota. Zips by double digits.

Troy at (25)LSU(-20.5)(1): This is a dangerous looking line. I don’t trust this one at all. Derrius Guice is listed as questionable, but there is no reason for LSU to play him. The Tigers are still a better team, but how much better? It’s not like Troy is bad. Give me LSU, I guess.

Charlotte at Florida International(-10.5)(3): Okay, so, I know that FIU is not all that great. I get it. However, they are a home against a team that just got blanked by Georgia State. FIU wins this handily.

Middle Tennessee State at Florida Atlantic(-2.5)(1): This line opened even, but with Brent Stockstill out has tilted slightly towards the home team. John Urzua looked solid against Bowling Green last week in place of Stockstill, and I’m not really sure that FAU is that much better than the Falcons. I think I’m still going with MTSU.

South Alabama at Louisiana Tech(-12.5)(2): That’s a pretty big line for a team that doesn’t have the explosiveness on offense that defined them for the last two years. That said, South Alabama hasn’t beaten a FBS team. Give me La Tech, I guess.

Marshall at Cincinnati(-3.5)(4): Is this line missing a digit? I would still feel pretty comfortable taking the Bearcats for 13. Cincy by a lot more than this!

North Texas at Southern Mississippi(-7.5)(3): North Texas has a couple of solid road performances to their credit this year, and Mason Fine is a better quarterback than he is given credit for. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Mean Green won outright, so I fully expect them to stay within one score. I’ll take North Texas.

Ball State at Western Michigan(-14.5)(2): This is going to be tough for the Fighting Letterman’s. Ball State is missing their starting quarterback and running back. I have to think that the Broncos pull away here. Give me WMU.

Coastal Carolina at Louisiana-Monroe(-7.5)(1): I am impressed with what the Chanticleers have done in their first FBS season, but having them go into Monroe and keep it within one score may be too much to ask. I’ll take the Warhawks.

Air Force(-2.5) at New Mexico(1): Lamar Jordan is the best player on the field and he is at home. I’ll take the Lobos.

Memphis at Central Florida(-4.5)(1): I took Memphis in Pick Em, but I do believe this one could go either way. I’m taking Memphis her as well, but I’m not overly confident about it. UCF likely has a better defense than UCLA right now…..

Next: ESPN College Pick em Picks Week 5

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