The Monster Mile will spell the end of the road for four drivers vying for the 2017 NASCAR Cup Series championship.
Dover International Speedway makes for a fitting end to the first round of the 2017 NASCAR Playoffs. After all, the one-mile concrete oval can be awfully unforgiving, and for four drivers, it will be even more so in the Apache Warrior 400 sponsored by Lucas Oil.
The playoff field will be cut from 16 to 12 after Dover, and with four drivers already safely into the next round — pole-sitter Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Larson, Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski — that leaves a dozen other drivers doing the stock car version of musical chairs for the remaining eight spots. In truth, though, it’s only the bottom few spots up for grabs, meaning the most exciting and crucial races might be among cars in the middle of the field.
A win by any of the most desperate drivers might be hard to come by, though. Truex is the defending race winner, starts up front and has both confidence and momentum. Larson starts beside him and came within a late race restart of taking the checkered flag at Dover in the spring. And Jimmie Johnson, who starts seventh, hasn’t been fast recently but owns a ton of victories at this track.
That means there are likely to be a bunch of drivers with crew chiefs nervously checking the running order of the Apache Warrior 400 as the laps count down. And the chances of a big wreck wiping out several competitors’ chances to continue in the playoffs looms large. Can’t ask for much more potential drama than that.
Next: Full Apache Warrior 400 grid, starting lineup
Forecast
Weather Channel is calling for consistent temperatures for the Apache Warrior 400 in the mid-60s. What could change during the race is the amount of direct sun on the track, as a partly cloudy start is expected to give way to complete sunshine by the end of 400 miles. That could make track conditions change more than usual and mean the most successful cars will be the ones who keep up.
Stage lengths
Unlike many races that dice things up into roughly quarter, quarter and half-sized chunks, Dover comes a little closer to turning the race into even thirds.
- Stage 1 ends at lap 120
- Stage 2 ends at lap 240
- The third and final stage is scheduled to end at Lap 400, for a final stage length of 160 laps
Three things to watch
- Will Kyle Larson erase his spring heartbreak? Larson was cruising to victory in the spring until a caution with less than two laps to go bunched the field back up and Johnson got him on the restart. One has to imagine he’ll itching to make up for one that got away, and his qualifying speed suggests he’ll have the car to do it.
- Can Dale Earnhardt Jr. contend for a win? Junior has never had excessive love for Dover, but he does hold a victory in what is now the Apache Warrior 400. That came way back in 2001, but he’s starting seventh, suggesting that his team may have found a little bit that he was lacking in recent weeks — or really most of 2017, if we’re being honest. If he’s near the front toward the end, it should energize the crowd at the Monster Mile.
- Whose luck will run out among the playoff bubble? The points race from Ricky Stenhouse Jr. on down is as tight as can be, and none of the drivers on the bubble can clinch a spot in the next round except for a win, which would be an upset for any of them. There’s probably going to be a wreck that knocks someone or more than one someone out of contention, which means the probability for heartbreak on the concrete is high.
Predictions
There’s no compelling reason to pick against Martin Truex Jr. … so we won’t. He’s the defending race winner, is starting from the pole and has momentum after a win last week. Unless his team misses the setup, which would be a big surprise, or he runs into trouble not of his own making, he’s going to be awfully hard to beat.
And while it’s hard to call Chase Elliott a true dark horse pick, he is simply because he hasn’t won a Cup Series race yet, he hasn’t been making a lot of noise in recent weeks and he’s starting just outside the top 10. But Elliott has run well at Dover already in his young career, and if enough happens in front of him to give the No. 24 an opening, he very well could come through with the first of what’s sure to be a number of victories at NASCAR’s top level.