AL Wild Card pick: Yankees-Twins go big or go home
The New York Yankees host the Minnesota Twins in Tuesday’s AL Wild Card Game. We know the Yankees are the better team, but Jason Lake will tell you if they’re the better bet.
The New York Yankees are in a must-win situation. So are the Minnesota Twins. They’re the two teams involved in Tuesday’s American League Wild Card Game (8 p.m. ET, ESPN), and whoever loses this game will be out of the playoffs, just like that. Imagine getting this far down the World Series path, only to end up on the golf course after one game. That’s the drama the MLB honchos wanted when they added the second Wild Card — and they got it in spades.
Chances are it’ll be the Yankees advancing to the AL Division Series to face the reigning pennant winners from Cleveland. New York opened as a -230 home chalk for Tuesday’s Wild Card Game, and despite a small majority of bettors taking Minnesota on the moneyline, the Bombers have moved up to -240 and higher at press time. That’s a good sign that the sportsbooks want you to keep betting on the Twins before the all that public money comes in on New York. Is Minnesota really the sharp side in this matchup?
Sano Patrol
Baseball betting is all about the numbers, so let’s see what the math says. FiveThirtyEight’s Elo-based projections have the Yankees (91-71, –1.00 betting units) winning the Wild Card Game 63 percent of the time; plug that into the Odds Converter at Sportsbook Review, and you get -170 out the other side. That’s a pretty big premium to pay if you want to bet on the Bombers. Maybe the Twins (85-77, +11.48 units) really are the better baseball pick at these odds.
Those projections need some pruning, though. Miguel Sano (.859 OPS) is expected to begin Tuesday’s game on the bench for Minnesota. The All-Star third baseman is just coming back from a stress reaction in his shin that cost him over a month of action; manager Paul Molitor appears to be leaning toward Robbie Grossman (.741 OPS) as his DH for the Wild Card Game, with Sano available in a pinch-hitting role. That will deprive the Twins of their most potent bat this year.
Sano is just 1-for-8 with three strikeouts since coming off the injured list last week, so there’s no point in trotting him out there when he’s still not 100 percent. The Twins even managed to go 21-17 while Sano was on the shelf, enough to secure the second AL Wild Card spot. But Minnesota was also swept by the Yankees two weeks ago at Yankee Stadium, losing by a combined score of 18-5. Uh-oh.
Not So Smooth
Then you have Tuesday’s pitching matchup, which features the No. 1 starters for both clubs — at least on paper. New York’s Luis Severino (3.07 FIP) definitely pitched like an ace this year. Minnesota’s Ervin Santana (4.46 FIP) did not, but you wouldn’t know it by his 16-8 record and his 3.28 ERA. There’s a reason why these are bad stats for baseball betting; Santana was fortunate to give up a .245 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) this year, well below his .282 career average. More of those seeing-eye singles are going to turn into outs in the long run.
Severino’s .272 BABIP on the season is also a shade lower than his .283 career average, but not dramatically so. This is one of the rising stars of the game, and easily the best starter on a team that finished second in the majors with a plus-198 run differential. The Twins are 10th out of the 10 playoff teams at plus-27. If the Yankees aren’t the right pick here, we’d rather take our chances with UNDER 7.5 runs, which has a slight lean on the consensus reports at press time. Either way, may the better team win, and may the sphere be with you.
Free AL Wild Card Pick: UNDER 7.5 (–104)
Best Line: at Pinnacle