Fantasy Baseball Fight Club: Zack Greinke or Jon Gray?
By Gavin Tramps
Diamondbacks Zack Greinke bounced back after a disappointing 2016, while the Rockies’ ace Jon Gray is enjoying the best stretch of his career. Which one are you drafting next season?
The two starting pitchers in the NL Wild Card game are at opposite ends of their careers. The Arizona Diamondbacks invested heavily in the former Cy Young Award winner Zack Greinke after his exceptional 2015 season with the Dodgers. Greinke has faced more than 10,000 batters in his Major League career and will earn more than $33 million next season.
The Colorado Rockies’ undisputed ace is 25-year-old Jon Gray. The right-hander is the only Rockies starter this century to post an ERA below 3.80 while striking out more than a batter per inning.
The Wild Card game is a one-off, winner-takes-all. It is the epitome of a small sample size. Regardless of the performances of the two starters, it is their whole package that you need to consider when drafting next season, not just one game.
Already there is chatter about downgrading Luis Severino after his disastrous start in the AL Wild Card game, with people almost forgetting about the sub-3.00 ERA and 230 strikeouts.
Jon Gray (SP-COL)
The former first-round pick from the 2013 draft only made 20 starts in 2017 due to a foot injury that kept him out of action for most of May and June.
Despite only throwing 110⅓ innings, Gray posted a 3.67 ERA with a lower FIP (3.18) suggesting that his stats could have been even better.
Everyone knows that you should avoid pitchers starting at Coors Field in fantasy baseball, but Gray is an anomaly with better results in Colorado than on the road. His 3.13 ERA in the thin air of the Mile-High City points to him being on the verge of breaking out as a true ace.
Gray relies on a powerful 96 mph fastball, which induces a high number of ground balls, an ideal result when pitching in Coors Field. His slider and curve are better strikeout pitches, and the right-hander recorded 112 strikeouts at a rate of 9.10 SO/9.
His best start of the season was, coincidentally, against the Diamondbacks on September 12, with a 10-strikeout, two-runs, no-walks outing.
Gray finished the season impressively, not conceding more than three runs in any of his last 12 starts.
The Rockies have one of the best bullpens in the game, which has enabled manager Bud Black to pull his starters early. Gray is less impressive the second and third time through the order and has not made it past seven innings in any start this season. But he is only 25-years-old.
Although only starting 20 games this season is concerning, Gray made 31 starts across two levels last season, so he has shown durability in the past.
Zack Greinke (SP-ARI)
The former first-rounder from the 2002 draft is undeniably one of the best starting pitchers in the game. According to Fangraphs’ WAR, he is the best NL starter this year not on the Nationals, with only Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg enjoying better seasons.
Greinke threw 202⅓ innings, and this is the seventh time he has thrown at least 200 innings in a season over the last ten years. He is one of the true workhorses in the game.
The 33-year-old does not overpower with a 91 mph fastball, but he utilizes it in a mix with his excellent slider, curveball and changeup.
He is known as one of the most cerebral pitchers and as a ferocious competitor. He refuses to give in, seldom giving free passes and, like his former teammate Clayton Kershaw, Greinke does not intentionally walk batters.
Greinke is not as good as the 1.66 ERA (2.76 FIP) pitcher that should have won the Cy Young Award in 2015 with the Dodgers. He is also not as bad as the 4.37 ERA (4.12 FIP) starter who looked overwhelmed in his first season in Phoenix. The fact that he can post such varying results in consecutive years makes his reliability in 2018 questionable.
Despite the ball flying out of Chase Field, Greinke has settled there and enjoys better results at home with a 2.87 ERA compared to 3.65 ERA on the road.
Greinke saved up his worst start of the season for the end of September when he gave up eight runs on nine hits to the Marlins with two walks and as many home runs as strikeouts (three).
Fantasy Baseball Fight Club: The Verdict
Over the last five years and including his disastrous 2016, Greinke has made 250 starts with a 1.08 WHIP. His ERA of 2.83 over this time is second only to Kershaw.
It is easy to suggest that the veteran’s best days are behind him while the younger pitcher is trending upwards. What if Greinke’s fastball loses another mile an hour in velocity? We know that very few starters can perform at an elite level after turning 34.
Greinke’s ADP won’t drop to 93 like it did this season (23rd starting pitcher off the board) but it is the draft room value that makes this an intriguing decision.
I am a Greinke believer. I will be anxiously hoping that he falls to around the tenth starter off the board and then he will be my mine. I like Gray’s potential, but there are too many red flags for me to invest heavily. I expect 20 starters to be picked between Greinke and Gray, so if the Rockies’ ace falls out of the top-30 starters, then I will take him as well.