Fantasy Baseball Fight Club: Aroldis Chapman or Cody Allen?
By Gavin Tramps
New York Yankees Aroldis Chapman and Cleveland Indians Cody Allen are two of the best closers in the game. Which one should you target in next season’s drafts?
The Yankees meet the Indians in the ALDS, bringing together two of MLB’s elite relief pitchers, Aroldis Chapman and Cody Allen. They are two very different players.
When drafting a closer for your fantasy team, you need a player with elite stuff, the ability to perform under immense pressure, and job security. The closer job is the most volatile in baseball, so perhaps job security is the most important quality.
Every closer is only a few bad outings away from losing their job. Even Chapman, the highest profile closer in the game, lost his ninth-inning role for part of the season. In fact, the Yankees presented 34 save opportunities to other players this year.
Many fantasy teams invested heavily in the Cardinals’ Seung-Hwan Oh. He was the fourth closer drafted this season according to FantasyPros ADP yet lost his job before the end of June.
This year started with Sam Dyson looking like Captain America for Team USA after not allowing a base runner in five games in the World Baseball Classic. He then endured a horrendous start to the regular season, with a 0-3 win-loss record, three blown saves and a 27.00 ERA over his first six appearances. Texas had no option other than to relieve him of the role.
Tony Watson, another pre-season favorite, looked secure in his position with the Pirates but then went from a 90% owned relief pitcher to waiver wire fodder when flame-throwing Felipe Rivera assumed the closer’s role in Pittsburgh.
And then at the opposite end of the scale, you have Fernando Rodney. No closer was less loved by the fantasy baseball world, and no closer was more expected to lose their job. The veteran finished the regular season with 39 saves and put together an impressive post-All-Star break stretch of 2.55 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 11.30 SO/9.
Aroldis Chapman (RP-NYY)
We need to start with the Wild Card game. Chapman came out of the bullpen and threw 20 pitches. 17 of them were over 100 mph. He is truly incredible.
The Cuban throws faster and frequently hits triple-digits more than any other pitcher. Even though Chapman’s velocity is down slightly and there are more pitchers reaching over 100 mph, MLB Statcast still has their ‘Chapman filter’ on the fastest pitches leaderboard.
Injury, performance problems and the domestic abuse allegation suspension have impacted Chapman’s performance over the last couple of seasons. Before 2016, he was an All-Star for four straight years and recorded more than 100 strikeouts in each season. He provided invaluable contributions in all formats of fantasy baseball.
This season, the left-hander struck out batters at an elite rate of 12.30 SO/9, but this is a career-low, down from a high of 17.70 SO/9 with the Reds in 2014.
Is it possible that with high-velocity pitches becoming increasingly more widespread, batters are becoming immune to them and can more easily turn on a 100 mph pitch to barrel it over the fence?
When Red Sox rookie Rafael Devers took Chapman’s 103 mph pitch deep, it looked like he knew what was coming and was waiting for it. The 20-year-old did not look scared of Chapman or his reputation.
This is part of the concern about owning Chapman in fantasy baseball leagues next season. If hitters are not overpowered by the extreme velocity, what else does he have to offer?
Chapman can throw a slider and uses it about one-fifth of the time. It varies from devastating to hanging to poorly commanded. Maybe, as Joe Girardi hopes, Chapman will make adjustments away from being just a one-pitch/two-pitch guy as he gets older.
Although Chapman has 204 career saves to his name, he has yet to record 40 saves in a single season.
Cody Allen (RP-CLE)
Allen’s teammate Andrew Miller was a one-man highlight package in last season’s playoffs. Terry Francona summoned him for high leverage situations, regardless of the inning, and Miller shut down the opposition.
What is sometimes overlooked is that Allen appeared in 10 postseason games in 2016. He recorded 24 strikeouts in 13⅔ innings (that’s 15.80 SO/9) and he did not allow any runs. Think about it, ten critical appearances on the biggest stage of his life and a 0.00 ERA.
Allen utilizes a two-pitch mix of a mid-90s fastball and his trademark knuckle-curveball. This season, he has thrown 316 of the 519 knuckle-curves for strikes, generating more than 20% swinging strikes. It is one of the best pitches in the game.
In his five full seasons in the major leagues, Allen has struck out at least 87 batters each season and has saved 122 games, although he has never reached 35 saves in a season. This is partly due to the Indians not getting a lot of save chances. This season, the Indians presented their bullpen with 47 save opportunities. Only the White Sox had fewer.
The preseason presumption was that Allen and Miller would share the ninth-inning role, but Allen closed out 30 games (and blew four saves) while Miller had just four save opportunities (and blew two of them).
Despite his elite arsenal, watching Allen is a rollercoaster ride. He allowed nine home runs in 2017 (Chapman allowed three). He walked 21 (Kenley Jansen walked just seven), and he gave up 57 hits (Craig Kimbrel gave up 33). He makes it exciting.
Fantasy Baseball Fight Club: The verdict
This year Chapman was the second relief pitcher off the board with an ADP of 51. Allen was available far later as the 13th closer taken with a 107 ADP. There will be less distance between them in 2018 drafts.
Chapman’s dominance is enticing. The potential for 100+ strikeouts with a sub 2.00 ERA and sub 1:00 WHIP would make him incredibly valuable. Add to that the 60 save opportunities that the Yankees could present and it is hard to resist.
However, his 2017 is concerning. The need for a secondary pitch looks to be more important now than ever before. The downward trends of velocity and strikeout rate contrast with the significant jump in ERA, up from 1.55 last year to 3.22 in 2017.
Allen is a pitcher rather than a flame-thrower. The knuckle-curve is a joy to watch. The hitter knows what is coming but cannot resist chasing it out of the strike zone. Despite his unconventional postseason bullpen management, Terry Francona is an avid supporter of Allen, so his job security is among the best of all closers in the game.
Give me 80 strikeouts, elite ratios and the potential for 40 saves. I’ll be drafting Allen in 2018.