USA vs. Panama: Predicting the USMNT lineup

The USMNT face Panama on Friday in the first of two must-win World Cup qualifiers. Here’s our best guess at the lineup Bruce Arena will choose.

The situation is painfully simple for the U.S. men’s national team: they must win their last two World Cup qualifiers to receive an automatic spot in the 2018 World Cup in Russia.

The USMNT are in control of their own destiny thanks to a late Bobby Wood equalizer against Honduras back on Sept. 5. Should they stumble against Panama (Friday) or Trinidad & Tobago (Tuesday) they will have to rely on other teams to drop points. That’s not a position the U.S. want to be in.

Bruce Arena has called in his final 2018 World Cup qualifying roster. There are some surprise inclusions (Benny Feilhaber, Juan Agudelo) and omissions (Fabian Johnson, Eric Lichaj). Here’s our best guess at the starting XI Arena will select for the match against Panama in Orlando.

Forwards

Arena is clearly relying on veterans to get the job done in these final two matches. That explains his decision to go with Chris Wondolowski over Dom Dwyer. But neither of these players figure to get significant minutes anyway. Jordan Morris being injured really hurts the Yanks’ ability to stretch the field with pace. So who will Arena go with up top?

As usual, it will depend on the formation the U.S. manager deploys. Looking at recent matches, and the available personnel, it seems likely Bobby Wood and Jozy Altidore will start up top. Although the two have struggled, as did the rest of the team, to make an impact over the last few U.S. matches.

The biggest question mark is Clint Dempsey. Will Arena use him as a super-sub or get him on the field from the start? Both options have their merits, but if Dempsey starts, I don’t see him filling one of the two spots up top.

Midfielders

Fabian Johnson is out. Benny Feilhaber is in. Johnson isn’t playing much for Borussia Monchengladbach and was pretty much invisible in his recent starts with the U.S., but his absence is still a shock. As is the inclusion of Feilhaber, who barely got a sniff from Jurgen Klinsmann, and has only appeared in January camp under Arena. His vision and passing could be vital in these two matches, but how many minutes will he actually get?

Darlington Nagbe and Christian Pulisic are safe bets to start against Panama. If Arena utilizes two strikers then those two will most likely be out wide. That leaves the central midfield spots. Captain Michael Bradley will take one. That leaves Feilhaber, Kellyn Acosta and Dax McCarty available for the other spot. Alejandro Bedoya could be considered a long shot as well, but that seems highly unlikely.

I would love to see Feilhaber on the field from the get-go, but Arena will probably go with Acosta, who he’s favored since taking over last November.

Defenders

*Heavy sigh*

Here we go. The USMNT defense has been in shambles over the last few qualifiers. Even normally-steady Geoff Cameron made some mistakes. The Stoke defender/midfielder played his first full match this weekend after coming back from injury. Even so, he has to start.

Joining him at center-back will be one of the following: Matt Besler (injury concerns), Tim Ream (please god no), Omar Gonzalez (consistently inconsistent) or Michael Orozco (WTF). All kidding aside, Orozco is on the roster for his versatility and familiarity with CONCACAF opponents. And, after the recent poor performances by American defenders, can you really say you prefer the other guys over him? Anyway, Besler gets the start if he’s anywhere close to 100 percent.

The choices at full-back appear pretty straightforward. DeAndre Yedlin is finally healthy again, having started and played the full 90 minutes for Newcastle in their last three Premier League matches. He’ll start at right-back. Jorge Villafana appears in line to start at left-back with DaMarcus Beasley as his back up.

Tim Howard hasn’t looked great for the Yanks or the Colorado Rapids as of late. Brad Guzan has been decent for Atlanta United. I think Arena still sides with experience on Friday and goes with Howard. Gulp.

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Starting XI

There has been some discussion about whether Arena will use a five-defender formation. He switched to one later in the Honduras match, with decent results. But the U.S. must score goals. I think he goes with an attack-minded 4-4-2:

Altidore Wood

Nagbe Bradley Acosta Pulisic

Villafana Besler Cameron Yedlin

Howard

The “attack-minded” is based on how Pulisic and Nagbe will be used. When going forward, the two wide midfielders take turns coming centrally to connect the midfield and the forwards. The full-backs will overlap at every chance, overloading the Panama defense. Bradley will sit back closer to the center-backs while Acosta provides support up field.

Dempsey for sure enters in the second half. Feilhaber, Paul Arriola and Juan Agudelo each have a chance to see the field should the U.S. need a goal. Bedoya, McCarty and Graham Zusi are options to close out the game with a lead.

Will this be enough on Friday? Whatever lineup Arena selects will have to be. There’s no other option for the U.S. Get three points or die trying.

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