25 College Basketball Teams in 25 Days: No. 21 Northwestern Wildcats
By Chris Stone
For the Northwestern Wildcats, 2017-18 is all about shedding the memory of last March
One of the most difficult things about sports is accepting the role that luck plays in the outcomes.
Listening to post-game press conferences, you’ll regularly hear references to desire, effort and heart, but rarely will you hear someone admit they got lucky. That’s because the foundation of sport is often meant to be individual responsibility. It’s the idea that if everyone participating in a team simply does their job, then the desired outcome will follow.
The truth, though, is that even when a team has done everything necessary to defy the odds, luck can take over. Nicolas Nassim Taleb explained the principle succinctly in his book Fooled by Randomness, “No matter how sophisticated our choices, how good we are at dominating the odds, randomness will have the last word.”
It’s also a lesson the Northwestern Wildcats unfortunately learned last March.
After falling behind by 22 points to the No. 1 seeded Gonzaga Bulldogs, the Wildcats battled back furiously in the second half. With four minutes and 57 seconds to go in the contest, Dererk Pardon rose for a layup that would have cut the Bulldogs lead to three.
The shot was blocked by Gonzaga freshman Zach Collins, but Collins had reached through the rim to do so. It should have been a goaltend and two points for Northwestern. The officials missed it. Head coach Chris Collins rightfully went berserk on the sideline, received a technical foul and the Bulldogs extended their lead.
The call was an unfortunate moment of human error that potentially cost the Wildcats an upset and the first Sweet Sixteen trip in school history. It’s a perfect example of why former New York Yankees’ pitcher Lefty Gomez used to say, “I’d rather be lucky than good.” It was also a reminder that in sports there’s only so much control a team can have over the outcome.
Of course, not everything that happens on the basketball court can be chalked up to random chance. After all, there’s that other adage about luck that says it’s what happens when preparation meets opportunity. Teams have to put themselves in position to have the ball bounce their way.
For the 2017-18 Wildcats, that will likely mean establishing themselves as a defense first outfit, something that’s been a trend for the team since Collins arrived. In three of his four seasons at the helm, the Wildcats have ranked in the top 100 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Even better, they’ve finished in the top 40 twice and nearly every significant piece of Northwestern’s defense returns for this season.
At the center of it all is Pardon, a 6-foot-8 junior who plays as an undersized 5 for the Wildcats. Pardon’s presence on the interior where he posted a 6.3 percent block rate forms the backbone of the Northwestern defense. In general, teams only have so much control over how well an offense shoots the ball, but defenses influence about 50 percent of the outcome when it comes to 2-point percentage and the majority of that influence comes around the basket, which is what makes having a rim protector like Pardon so valuable.
Last season, the Wildcats held opponents to just 1.024 points per possession (90th percentile) on field goal attempts around the basket in the halfcourt, per Synergy. It was the lowest mark of Collins’ tenure and it’s one that could improve this season depending on how the team distributes minutes at the power forward spot after Sanjay Lumpkin’s graduation.
The two players most likely to suck up the minutes there are senior Gavin Skelly and redshirt sophomore Aaron Falzon. Skelly, another 6-foot-8 forward, would give Northwestern a more defensive look. He posted a 7.5 percent block rate last season and could pair nicely next to Pardon if Collins wants to reinforce his defenses at the rim.
Falzon would help the team in other ways. As a freshman, he was a 35.4 percent 3-point shooter on over nine attempts per 40 minutes playing as a small ball power forward. Falzon has the potential to be a huge boon to the Northwestern offense if he’s even an average 3-point shooter this season as he returns from knee surgery.
The Wildcats shot just 34.2 percent from deep as a team in 2016-17 and they were heavily reliant on the marksmanship of 6-foot-7 wing Vic Law as the roster’s two leading scorers, Bryant McIntosh and Scottie Lindsey, both shot worse than 33.0 percent on 3s. Plopping Falzon out on the perimeter would likely help open up some driving lanes for McIntosh and Lindsey as Northwestern looks to improve on an offense that ranked 59th in terms of adjusted efficiency last season, per KenPom.
The offensive end is where the Wildcats’ upside lies as they look to transform into a team that can challenge the Michigan State Spartans for a Big Ten championship. Northwestern simply has more room to grow there because its defense is already very good.
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Come November, nearly eight months removed from their heartbreaking defeat in the NCAA Tournament, the Wildcats will take the court for the first time in the 2017-18 season. They’ll do so away from the friendly confines of Welsh-Ryan Arena (which is undergoing renovations) and with the knowledge that this is the final campaign for seniors like Lindsey, McIntosh and Skelly.
Northwestern will also be more experienced now, no longer the only major conference program to never make the NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats will know that they can control games with their defense and how to mitigate the effect that bad luck can have on the outcome. Last March will simply be seen as a stepping stone in their preparation.
“I feel like this is just a building block, this is just a beginning,” Law said after the Gonzaga loss. “And I can’t wait to see what the future holds.”