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25 College Basketball Teams in 25 Days: No. 20 Alabama Crimson Tide

By Chris Stone

PORTLAND, OR - APRIL 7: Collin Sexton #8 of the USA Junior Select Team looks on against the World Select Team during the game on April 7, 2017 at the MODA Center Arena in Portland, Oregon. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Sam Forencich)
PORTLAND, OR - APRIL 7: Collin Sexton #8 of the USA Junior Select Team looks on against the World Select Team during the game on April 7, 2017 at the MODA Center Arena in Portland, Oregon. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Sam Forencich) /
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Collin Sexton is primed to lead a turnaround at Alabama

When top 10 recruits arrive in Tuscaloosa, it’s usually to step foot on the gridiron, not the hardwood.

Since 2009, the season that John Calipari took the Kentucky Wildcats’ head coaching job and reshaped the college basketball recruiting landscape, the Alabama Crimson Tide have landed exactly one top 10 basketball recruit. In that same period, 11 top 10 football players have committed to the school.

That Alabama is traditionally a so-called football school isn’t the only thing that makes the commitment of point guard Collin Sexton, the No. 5 recruit in the Class of 2017, such a unique event.

There’s a serious recruiting disparity in college basketball when it comes to the top high school talent. Based on 247Sports’ Composite Rankings, of the 192 5-star recruits who have played or are expected to play college basketball from 2009-2017, 79.2 percent of them have gone to one of 20 Division I schools. Each of those 20 schools has landed three or more 5-stars while an additional 28 schools have landed one or two.

Dip into the top 10 and things get even tighter. Only 30 schools total has landed a top 10 recruit during that time period with just 12 of them securing commitments from more than one.

Players like Collin Sexton frankly don’t end up at Alabama often.

Sexton will be handed the keys to the offense on day one and given that point guard is the most important position in college basketball, he’ll need to do several things well if the Crimson Tide are going to live up to preseason expectations.

His first task will be putting the ball in the basket with some level of efficiency. Last season, Alabama ranked 153rd nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom, and posted an effective field goal percentage of 48.2 (268th).

Sexton shouldn’t have a problem getting buckets against college defenses. Against most opponents his quickness and athleticism will be overwhelming, allowing him to get to the basket at will for high percentage looks at the rim or trips to the free throw line. There are certainly some concerns about Sexton’s ability to make jump shots consistently, but that will worry NBA scouts more than his college head coach. Sexton should have a good chance to become just the ninth freshman to play in a major conference and average 18 points per game since that 2009-10 landmark season.

The 6-foot-2 guard’s second responsibility will be a tougher task. Point guards at the college level have to make their teammates better, simply getting your own won’t suffice if you also want to be successful in the win column. Need proof? Consider the difference between how Lonzo Ball shaped the UCLA Bruins last season versus how Dennis Smith Jr. did with the North Carolina State Wolfpack.

That said, Sexton’s ability to get into the paint and break down defenses should have a spillover effect to his teammates as he draws attention and opens up looks for others. Many of those looks should come at the 3-point line where Alabama shot just 31.7 percent last season. A big factor? Only 29.7 percent of the catch-and-shoot attempts that the Crimson Tide took in the halfcourt were unguarded, the 292nd worst mark in Division I, per Synergy, and while the team shot 35.1 percent on those attempts — near the Division I average for 3-point percentage — they made a meager 30.8 percent of their guarded catch-and-shoots.

Several players, including Ar’mond Davis and Riley Norris, could be set to benefit from Sexton’s creation, but none more so than last year’s leading scoring leader Braxton Key, a 6-foot-8 combo forward who seems destined for a smaller role in 2017-18. Key has the potential to be a floor-spacing 4-man, but he made just 33.0 percent of his 3-point attempts last season. However, the gap between his average points per possession on catch-and-shoots (1.047) versus off the dribble jumpers (0.627) suggests that there’s significant offensive potential to that can be untapped by shifting his role away from the ball and getting him involved in actions with the team’s new 5-star point guard.

Obviously, not all of this potential improvement will come as a result of Sexton’s play. Alabama’s other players will need to follow through on actually making the shots that the point guard creates, but everything starts with getting better looks.

The final task for Sexton is one where he’ll need some help from head coach Avery Johnson. Since the 5-star prospect committed, it’s been assumed that Johnson will let him speed up the pace of the game, but that’s not exactly something that sticks out on the head coach’s resume. In both seasons under Johnson, the Crimson Tide have finished ranked 300th or lower in Division I in KenPom’s adjusted tempo statistic meaning that they play at an impressively slow pace. That’s something that sticks out about Johnson’s time in the NBA, too. In his final five seasons as a head coach in the league, Johnson’s teams played at a pace that finished in the bottom third of the league.

There are signs, though, that Johnson is going to let Sexton and his 2017-18 roster play faster. During the team’s trip to Canada during the offseason, it played three 40 minute contests. Although those games were divided into quarters and not halves like college basketball, they are still an interesting sample. Alabama averaged an estimated 82.1 possessions per game in that three-game stretch compared to just 70.1 possessions per game last season, the 246th fastest pace in Division I, per Team Rankings.

Sustaining that pace will give the Crimson Tide an opportunity to maximize their talent and play a generally more enjoyable brand of basketball, but it doesn’t come without risks. Things on the court can get fast and loose when they’re sped up as reflected by the 22.9 percent turnover rate Alabama posted during their Canadian tour. Sexton and his teammates will need to clean up that number in order to reach their offensive potential.

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Collin Sexton’s arrival on the Alabama campus gives the Crimson Tide an opportunity to do something they have don’t since 2012: make the NCAA Tournament. While it is rare for players to have an effect like Ball at UCLA, Alabama will task Sexton with transforming the way the team plays and translating that into wins.

The good news is that since that 2009-10 season just seven of the 56 top 10 recruits to be one-and-done college basketball players — which Sexton will almost assuredly be — have missed the NCAA Tournament.

Now, the Crimson Tide just have to take advantage of their rare opportunity.