A lot happens in five years. At the start of the 2012-13 season, the Heat weren’t yet back-to-back NBA champions, winners of a series defined by Ray Allen’s 3-pointer in Game 6 and the biggest assist to LeBron James’ career. Stephen Curry had come off ankle surgery and was still months from this. His team, the Warriors, wouldn’t begin their dynastic rule on the league until two years later. I was 22-years-old and bragging to a friend that I found my place in the universe and wouldn’t stumble into the pitfalls all young people do discovering themselves.
And the 76ers, in a fit of serendipity not made aware until five years later, had traded the franchise’s best player since Allen Iverson for Andrew Bynum, a player whose total minutes with the team would match mine: zero.
It’s amazing how much has changed since 2012-13, including the never-ending desire to coddle my 22-year-old self with a right hook for such arrogance and idiocy. The Bynum trade was the mark of a stretch of losing and underachieving for Philadelphia sports. But hope reigns again. For the first time in five years, the 76ers have depth, including veterans, surrounding a young core of players who can potentially launch the 76ers into championship contention.
That is at least how it stands before the start of 2017-18. The 76ers exist in this weird sports nebula. Like the basketball version of Schrodinger’s cat, they simultaneously are and aren’t, and it won’t be until the season plays out that we will see what actually is and isn’t. Look at one angle, and they are destined again for the lottery, with Markelle Fultz and Ben Simmons struggling as rookies normally do and Joel Embiid unable to last even 50 games. (The cliffnotes version of the 76ers season: For every game Embiid doesn’t reach 60, the odds of a 76ers playoff berth decreases by corresponding increments.)
Or, look from another, and you see a dark horse playoff team who could realistically steal a game or two from a higher seed. With three 2016-17 playoff teams — the Bulls, Pacers and Hawks — expected to drop into the lottery, and with the Knicks, Nets and Magic all in rebuilds, one of the newly opened spots is made for the 76ers.
Perhaps the most apt comparison for them is the young Thunder. In 2009-10, their three-man core consisted of Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden, all three, like the 76ers, top five picks from separate classes and with an average age of about 21. The trio posted a ridiculous plus-13.9 net rating over 650 minutes, and the team finished 50-32.
Matching success this season is the dream result for the 76ers. Their roster is better constructed top-to-bottom than that Thunder team, but they suffer from setbacks that didn’t manifest in Oklahoma City. For example, Harden was the only rookie and all three played at least 75 games. The 76ers three involve two rookies, and, no matter how touted, history says they are bound to struggle at points adjusting to the speed, pace and intensity of the NBA. The holes in Fultz and Simmons’ games, even with Embiid protecting the rim behind them, are as wide as they’ll ever be and teams will exploit them every time down the floor.
None of the 76ers young trio have played together, while Durant and Westbrook had a full season together in 2008-09. Worse, Embiid’s cap is probably 60 games, and if he misses any time, that number could drop dramatically. Fortunately, even the 76ers don’t need to be the mirror to the 2009-10 Thunder because they’re in the Eastern Conference. The Thunder had to win 50 games to make the eighth seed. If we follow last season’s playoff berths, the 76ers would have to win 41 games to reach that same spot.
So, if those are the most pessimistic and optimistic scenarios for the 76errs, what’s their most realistic?
If there’s one thing the fallout of the Bynum trade and the first phase of The Process has shown us, it’s progress takes time. Sam Hinkie’s intended goal was always about winning a championship. Since that time, The Process has been rebranded into securing high picks to take the best available talent in the draft. If it were simply finishing high in the lottery, then the Timberwolves and Cavaliers would have already mastered The Process. The challenge, and where the 76ers are, is cultivating that talent into a team that can vault into the upper tiers of the league.
It’s fun to prognosticate the 76ers’ success this season (or failures if you’re chest-deep in anti-tank), but there are still things that need figuring out. It’s a season for experiments. A season for mistakes and growth and certainty. Will Fultz and Simmons mesh? Can they make free throws? What about Simmons at the 5? How devastating can a Fultz-Embiid spread pick-and-roll be? What lineups work best when Embiid sits? When Simmons sits? How often do you stagger the three? How much does Redick’s shooting and off-ball movement open up the offense? Who’s in the crunch-time lineup? What happens when we see a Fultz-Redick-Dario Saric-Simmons-Embiid lineup? Will Simmons and Saric not work since both aren’t great shooters? Can Embiid stay healthy?
So, take the lumps and don’t panic. The 76ers boast versatility across the roster that affords them the opportunity to build around their talent. But it will take time to materialize. It will take in-game situations and on-the-fly adjustments for them to create something concrete. The Death Lineup didn’t happen until Game 4 of the 2015 NBA Finals, and it was a byproduct of the Cavaliers choking the pace in Games 2 and 3.
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If the 76ers do make the postseason, that’s a huge success. If the 76ers don’t make the playoffs, but Simmons and Fultz are able to figure out how to play together and Embiid plays 60 games, then that’s a huger success. Either way, it’s a new day at Wells Fargo Center. Pat yourselves on the back, 76ers fans, you finally made it through the rigors of tanking. But understand this is far from over. The Process is just beginning phase two.
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