NBA Season Preview 2017-18: Bucks need to limit corner 3s

The Milwaukee Bucks finished last season with a furious, but ultimately unsuccessful, rally in Game 6 of their first round series against the Toronto Raptors. That Bucks team that left the Bradley Center in April will look a lot like the one that opens up this season. The Bucks opened training camp with 13 players that finished last season with the team, most of whom are major contributors. With so many returning players, it’s likely the Bucks’ style of play will stay largely the same.

As is known throughout the NBA, the Bucks have acquired the largest collection of super-human length in the league. Jason Kidd tries to use this length to his advantage, bringing pressure from different places on the floor.

As we saw in the playoffs, the Bucks’ defensive style was successful in forcing teams to use most of the shot clock, as the Bucks’ opponents used the largest percentage of the shot clock of any team last year. However, that defensive style is also prone to allowing efficient shot-selection to the defense.

In Game 6 against the Raptors, the Bucks erased 25-point second half deficit, only to be done-in down the stretch by their Achilles heel, the corner 3-pointer. Looking at the chart below, we see every NBA team’s number of corner 3-point attempts allowed, plotted against their number of mid-range attempts allowed from the last three seasons.

If we look at the chart, we see the Bucks’ values highlighted in orange with all other teams’ values in blue. The Bucks are notorious for not only allowing the most efficient shot in the game at a high rate but also for minimizing the opponent’s looks at the least efficient shot in the game. That lack of defensive efficiency peaked this past season, where the Bucks allowed over 8.7 corner 3-point attempts per 100 possessions, the most in the league. In addition, they allowed a league-low 16.5 mid-range attempts per 100 possessions. While these two numbers aren’t the only indicators of a successful defense, they certainly indicate a defense that takes some risks.

The Bucks finished last season 19th in the league in defensive efficiency (106.4 points per 100 possessions) and 22nd two seasons ago (105.7 points per 100 possessions). Three seasons ago, in 2014-15 they had a breakout year, finishing with the second-ranked defense in the league (99.3 points per 100 possessions). What’s incredible about the Bucks’ defense from 2014-15 is that they still allowed defenses to shoot over eight corner 3s per 100 possessions. What was the difference? The Bucks were able to funnel their opponents to inefficient areas, like the mid-range and the paint, on shot attempts that weren’t corner 3s. They also did a phenomenal job protecting the rim, allowing opponents to shoot just 57.5 percent in the restricted area, as opposed to over 60 percent from last season. Maybe the most significant difference between this past season and 2014-15 for the Bucks, however, was their 3-point percentage their defense allowed.

As this site has previously professed, teams’ shooting percentages on any shot outside of six feet have shown to be converted at random. This means that teams’ 3-point percentage allowed stats are pretty much categorized as “luck” from season to season — good defenses prevent 3-pointers, they don’t really force misses. In 2014-15, Bucks opponents converted corner 3-point attempts at a rate of 37.3 percent, over one percentage point below the league average. The past two seasons have not been as kind to the Bucks, with opponents converting 39.2 percent and 38.8 percent of their corner 3-point attempts in 2015-16 and 2016-17, respectively. Both of those figures were well above the league averages of 37.4 percent in 2015-16 and 38.3 percent in 2016-17.

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By continually allowing such a high number of corner 3-point attempts, the Bucks defense is playing with fire. Should opponents happen to shoot a below-average percentage from the corners, the Bucks are safe. If teams convert regularly, however, the Bucks will continue to allow opponents to succeed from the most efficient spot on the floor. Assuming they don’t want to leave a large part of their defensive success up to chance, the Bucks would do well to minimize the number of corner 3-point attempts they allow this season. If they don’t, they could wind up getting burned.