A lot had to break right for the Milwaukee Bucks to have the type of season they did last year – Giannis Antetokounmpo took a quantum leap forward and became a top ten player; Malcolm Brogdon was a diamond in the rough; Thon Maker turned into a productive player earlier than expected; Tony Snell made the Bucks winners of the trade that brought him over.
A lot also went wrong, notably Jabari Parker tearing his ACL the game Khris Middleton came back from a hamstring injury. Parker and Middleton never shared the court in 2017, and Milwaukee got very little data on lineups including Brogdon, Snell, Middleton, Antetokounmpo, Parker, and Maker – the core group that could be the foundation of a championship contender.
Antetokounmpo is already a foundational star with limitless room for growth. Milwaukee appears to have the pieces to place around him, and those players will dictate the team’s ceiling. But with such a limited sense of what those players look like next to one another, the 2018 season is difficult to forecast.
Brogdon, Snell, Middleton, Giannis, and Maker eventually became the starting lineup, but played only 134 minutes together because of Middleton’s injury and the late additions of Maker and Brogdon into the rotation. That unit had a net rating of plus-7.8 and should be the Bucks’ opening night lineup.
The emergence of Milwaukee’s rookies helped establish the Bucks’ core and clarify their direction. Originally meant to be temporary stopgaps or long-term projects, Brogdon and Maker found their footing faster than anticipated and look like essential players.
In many ways, Maker is an archetypal modern center: he possesses great length, mobility, and shooting touch for a big man, and can handle the ball when asked to. His talent is more theoretical than actual at this point, and his minutes were sparse even after he became a starter. Maker is more finesse than force, and often struggles to compete physically.
Still, the makings of a star are there. Maker might have the second-highest upside of anyone on the roster, and he works hard. He already spaces the floor effectively, a rare trait for a young 7-footer, and proved a useful and versatile backline defender. Veteran bruiser Greg Monroe remains a reliable backup should Maker prove unready for increased minutes, but the youngster should get every opportunity. How Maker’s game develops in a larger role will be a fascinating subplot to the Bucks’ season.
Brogdon usurped a starting spot sooner than Maker did, outplaying the more limited Matthew Dellavedova on a regular basis. Dellavedova plays a very specific role well, but Brogdon offers more playmaking and dynamism in all facets of the game. He shot 40 percent from deep while dishing out over four assists per game, and the Bucks were nearly five points per 100 possessions better with Brogdon on the floor than with him off.
A four-year college player, Brogdon feels the game at an extremely high level and showed an innate sense of how to put himself or his teammates in the best positions to score. He isn’t a true point guard, but he doesn’t need to be. His smooth off-ball game pairs nicely with Antetokounmpo’s frenetic slashing, and Brogdon can slide across roles and positions according to his surrounding personnel.
Much of the same can be said of Middleton, who was Milwaukee’s best player before the Greek Freak went mainstream. Middleton impacts winning on nearly every level, playing a style tailored for the Bucks style and complementary of Antetokounmpo’s game. He shot a career-best 43 percent from downtown last season and shouldered most of the secondary playmaking duties behind Giannis, all while playing above-average defense on the league’s best wings. Wherever the Bucks need him, Middleton fits.
Now at full health, the coming season represents an opportunity for Middleton to take another step forward, and slight alteration to his shot selection could make a meaningful difference in his production. As accurate as he is from deep, Middleton only took 3.6 3-pointers per game in 2017. That number should be in the five-to-seven range for a marksman of his caliber. Middleton rains fire on catch-and-shoot 3s, and he’s one of the Bucks’ most important floor spacers.
Parker’s timeline is the wild card in all of this; he could be the final piece that solidifies a talented young team, or a redundant, expendable player whose value can be made up by more versatile players. Parker was having by far the best year of his career before a second ACL injury cut it short, and he’s still only 22.
Parker relies heavily on his straight-line speed and explosiveness, which could now be compromised. If he doesn’t provide the same scoring punch when he comes back, Parker becomes an extremely limited player. It’s unclear if his 3-point shooting from last year is sustainable, he’s a poor team defender, and he’s a below-average rebounder and shot blocker for his position.
Next: 25-under-25 -- The best young players in the NBA
With or without Parker, Milwaukee has the personnel to play in — and even further — the positionless basketball movement, with a superstar whose ceiling is unquantifiable. Giannis and the Bucks cemented themselves in the “Next Great Team” discussion last season, now they have to collectively make the next leap and justify those expectations.
Add us as a preferred source on Google