25 College Basketball Teams in 25 Days: No. 19 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
By Chris Stone
With Bonzie Colson back, Notre Dame is poised to spend another year near the top of the ACC standings
The standard of excellence in the Atlantic Coast Conference is almost always measured by its flag bearers, the Duke Blue Devils and the North Carolina Tar Heels. The two schools have combined to win 11 NCAA Tournaments, including two of the last three, and produced some of the top individual talents in the history of the sport.
Additionally, in recent years, the Louisville Cardinals and the Virginia Cavaliers have gotten their due as elite basketball programs in the ACC, but for some reason, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish never quite seem to find themselves in the conversation with those top-tier teams.
The truth is that since joining the conference for the 2013-14 season, the Irish have largely performed at the same level as the best of the best in the ACC. In fact, if you look at the last three seasons in the league — for our purposes, we’re cutting Notre Dame some slack in their first season in the conference when leading scorer Jerian Grant was ineligible the second semester — it’s been relatively easy to lock down the top six teams in the conference.
Dating back to 2014-15, the top six of the ACC standings have finished as follows in some order: Duke, Louisville, North Carolina, Notre Dame and Virginia with one other program mixed in. During that stretch, the Irish have won 37 regular season league games, the exact same number as the Blue Devils and just two fewer than the Tar Heels. They have also been to a pair of Elite Eights and were one Grant miss away from a Final Four.
The constant during that stretch and really dating back to 2000 has been the offensive genius of head coach Mike Brey. In each of the last three seasons, the Irish have finished in the top 20 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom, and just three times since the 2001-02 season have they fallen outside of the top 50.
Brey’s motion offense is designed to be methodical, slowing down the game for young players, but also deceptive via a changing tempo. He wants to give his players the freedom to attack opposing defenses while not over-coaching them. The offense frequently generates a significant percentage of its shots from behind the 3-point line and even in seasons it hasn’t, there were threatening shooters still stationed there.
Dating back to 2001-02, Notre Dame has ranked outside the top 50 nationally in 3-point percentage just four times. The offense often generates those 3-point looks out of ball screen actions, a staple of the system, that allows the big to either pop out beyond the line or provide the point guard the opportunity to break down the defense. In short, Brey has developed one of college basketball’s most devastating offenses by using off-ball motion and ball screens to create confusion and get buckets.
During this recent three-year run, the Irish have been led in scoring by three different players, including Grant, Demetrius Jackson and Bonzie Colson. 2017-18 will be the first time Brey will have his leading scorer back as Colson is set to return for what will likely be an All-American senior campaign.
The 6-foot-5, 225-pound Colson is as unique as it gets in college hoops. He regularly plays center for the Irish despite being several inches shorter and often less vertically explosive than his opponents. His output, though, is top notch. Last season, Colson averaged 17.8 points and 10.6 rebounds per game. Only 44 players (min. 20 games played) since 1992-93 have posted those numbers while attempting more than 1.5 3-pointers per contest. Ask that collection of players to be accurate and the number dwindles even further. Just 12 of them have shot it better than 40.0 percent from 3-point range and only three players have averaged 17.0 points, 10.0 rebounds, 1.5 3-point attempts per game and shot 40.0 percent from deep for the season in a major conference. They are Bonzie Colson, Caleb Swanigan and Kevin Durant. Not bad for a 3-star recruit who ranked outside of the top 150 in the Class of 2014.
Comparing Colson’s offensive game to the old guy at the YMCA would be doing him a disservice. Although he has those old man post moves that help create space for him to get his shot away as a smaller player, he’s much more versatile than that. Colson is great attacking larger defenders off the dribble from the perimeter and he has the balance and body control to accurately hoist floaters in the lane to deal with their length. Ultimately, it will be the senior’s special skill set that should set Notre Dame’s offense apart once again this season.
Brey will also have senior Matt Farrell and junior Rex Pflueger back in the starting lineup for 2017-18. Farrell runs the show at point guard, often initiating the offense in those ball screens, but he is also a dangerous shooting threat off the ball. Pflueger, meanwhile, is less of an on-ball threat and more of a low usage 3-point option. Brey will likely need Pflueger to take on a larger role this season as he looks to replace a pair of important pieces now that Steve Vasturia and V.J. Beachem have graduated.
Sophomore guard Temple (T.J.) Gibbs seems likely to move into the starting lineup in the backcourt next to Farrell. The former top 100 recruit spent a decent amount of time as the team’s second unit ball-handler last season, so he should be able to step into the secondary creator role vacated by Vasturia. During the approximately 400 possessions in which Farrell and Gibbs shared the floor last season, the Irish posted a +11 net rating per 100 possessions and scored a ridiculous 1.17 points per possession, per Hoop Lens.
There should be some concern surrounding how the team will fare with the smaller Farrell-Gibbs backcourt, however. Opponents averaged 1.06 points per possession against lineups featuring the pair last season with noticeable differences in on-off splits for 2-point percentage (50.2 to 47.5) and offensive rebound rate (36.8 to 29.8). That will put pressure on Brey to find the right fifth player to put alongside Farrell, Gibbs, Pflueger, and Colson for the majority of the team’s minutes.
One option will be to go bigger with senior Martinas Geben at the center spot. The Colson-Geben frontcourt was a menace defensively last season, according to lineup data obtained from Hoop Lens, conceding just 0.95 points per possession and holding opponents to 43.6 percent shooting inside the arc. Although those lineups posted a +12 net rating per 100 possessions, playing Geben alongside Colson negates some of the value of having such a versatile offensive player on the other end.
The second option is for Brey to go super small with 6-foot-6 freshman D.J. Harvey slotting in at the other forward position. Harvey is a high-IQ player who can space the floor as a spot-up option already and attack closeouts as needed. Playing with no players taller than 6-foot-6 on the floor would be a difficult ask defensively, but it’s tough to imagine many opposing defenses stopping the Irish’s attack.
History would seem to favor Geben a bit. Brey hasn’t played a freshman more than 50.0 percent of available minutes since Jackson in 2013-14 when Grant was ruled ineligible. It’s not necessarily that the head coach is averse to playing young guys, but he’s had his most success with seasoned squads who understand the ins and outs of the team’s system.
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Even with Colson positioned to be one of the top players in the country this season, there are still a few questions for Notre Dame to sort out given how important Vasturia and Beachem were to the roster a year ago. Brey will face a tough decision regarding whether or not he wants to fully embrace a small ball approach or play a bit bigger to shore things up defensively.
Whatever he decides, he’s earned a bit of deference from those outside the program. Since joining the ACC, Brey has positioned the Irish as one of the top programs in the conference alongside some of the top programs in the country. Notre Dame may not be a blue blood, but lately, they sure do win like one.