NBA Season Preview 2017-18: Can Dennis Schroder drive the Hawks’ offense?

Fresh off a strong performance for the German National Team at this summer’s Eurobasket tournament, Dennis Schroder is going to be carrying an enormous offensive load for the Atlanta Hawks. Schroder led the Hawks in usage rate last season, at 27.8 percent. The next four players below him in that category will be playing elsewhere next year.

The heart of Schroder’s offensive game is his ability to break a defense down off the dribble — nearly 50 percent of his shot attempts came within 10 feet of the basket last season and he finished second in the NBA in drives per game. The Hawks could have some additional frontcourt shooting next season, thanks to Ersan Ilyasova and Luke Babbitt, but rookie John Collins doesn’t appear to have 3-point range and space could be at a premium for Schroder as opposing defenses key on him.

Schroder’s physical tools likely mean he’ll continue to be able to get into the lane. The question for the Hawks offense this season is whether he can be efficient enough — both with his own shots and those he creates for his teammates, for his penetration to sustain the team’s offense.

Among the 46 players who averaged at least 6.0 drives per game last season, Schroder ranked 29th in points scored per drive. His field goal percentage on drives was a respectable 50.4 percent — about the same as Mike Conley or Jimmy Butler — but his turnover percentage was high (36th of 46 players), and his free throw rate was relatively low (38th of 46).

Schroder did a fantastic job drawing fouls in the Eurobasket tournament and it seems reasonable to assume that, at 24 years old, he should be able to improve on last season’s career-best overall turnover percentage. He also shot a career-high 40.4 percent on pull-up mid-range jumpers last year, another tool which should serve him well in becoming a more efficient pick-and-roll scorer.

The biggest question mark around Schroder’s off-the-dribble game is whether he can effectively use it to collapse the defense and create open perimeter shots for his teammates. Schroder averaged a respectable 6.3 assists per game last season but just 0.9 of those game after drives to the basket. Schroder passed on a very low percentage of his drives last season and those passes were converted to assists at an extremely low rate.

The graph below shows the 46 players who averaged at least 6.0 drives per game last season, marked by what percentage of their drives ended in a pass and what percentage of those passes were converted into an assist.

Obviously, both numbers — the frequency of his passes and the rate at which they turned into made baskets — are heavily tied in with his teammates. The only regular rotation players for the Hawks who shot at league average or above on 3-pointers were Kyle Korver, Mike Dunleavy and Mike Muscala, and Dunleavy and Korver were only there for half the season each, swapping places after they were traded for each other. Schroder and Tim Hardaway Jr. were the only players besides that trio to make better than 36 percent of their catch-and-shoot 3s.

Things might be a little easier for Schroder in that department this season. If Kent Bazemore and Ilyasova can have bounce-back seasons shooting the ball that would really help. As will the additions of Babbitt and Marco Belinelli. If the Hawks’ supporting cast is making outside shots there’s more incentive for Schroder to look to pass off drives, which will complicate things for the defense and probably make scoring easier for Schroder as well.

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Schroder certainly looks primed for a big season. But he’ll need to take another step forward in his playmaking, and he’ll need some help from the perimeter, if the he and the Hawks are going to hit their ceiling this season.