NBA Season Preview 2017-18: Kelly Olynyk and triple-threat spacing

The Miami Heat lost four games in a row from Jan. 6 to Jan. 13 last season. Four nights later, they traveled back and played the Houston Rockets, winning by six in regulation to bring their record to 12-30. They won another 12 games before their next loss, over a span of nearly an entire month. They would not lose four games consecutively for the rest of the season; their final record would be 41-41.

And so, after striking out (again) on the free agent mega-stars, this time Gordon Hayward and Blake Griffin, the Heat retained the guys who led them from the depths of 12-30 to that throttling 29-11 finish. There was little reason for change — if Miami could simply maintain the level of play they rose to over the second half of the season.

They will get Justise Winslow back, who was a lottery pick just two years ago, and their health ought to improve. The starters from the final day of the regular season missed a combined 49 games to injury, largely as a result of Josh Richardson missing nearly half the season. Dion Waiters, who Miami signed to a one-year prove it deal last summer, played only 46 games, but was so successful in the Heat offense that he managed a four-year, $52 million deal in free agency.

Based on the contracts they gave Waiters, James Johnson (three years, $43 million) and Josh Richardson (four years, $42 million), we know Miami was eager to spend the money they had penciled in for Hayward and Griffin. And they executed a similar plan last season, missing out on Kevin Durant before re-signing Tyler Johnson and giving Waiters that one-year deal. The one difference this season is that the Heat were able to go out and get a mid-tier free agent who fits.

Kelly Olynyk will earn a life-changing $50 million over the life of his new four-year deal. And he figures to raise Miami’s offensive ceiling immediately.

Olynyk will slide into the stretch four role that Miami has prioritized since Chris Bosh’s departure from the team two years ago. He will be such an upgrade over the likes of Luke Babbitt, Luol Deng and Joe Johnson, however, that it will allow Coach Erik Spoelstra to do more with each player on the court.

Last season, 75 percent of Babbitt’s shots were 3-pointers, and he shot 41 percent from distance. Two seasons ago, Olynyk took 5.4 3s per 36 minutes and he too shot 41 percent before balancing out his shot diet last year. In his final season as a Celtic, Olynyk upped his efficiency on 2-pointers and watched as his true shooting percentage soared to 61 percent, the highest mark of his career.

In the 2017 playoffs, we saw the potential of a more balanced and developed Olynyk. His true shooting percentage stayed at 60 as he shot over 51 percent from the field, his assist rate rose above his best regular season mark, and he made Boston nearly three points better on offense when he took the court.

Now, it’s fair to question how Olynyk will fare in Miami’s gashing diesel offense compared to the more methodical system within which he perfected his role in Boston. The Heat have meshed around the relentless slicing of Goran Dragic’s game, and surrounded him with players who can add to that style or complement it. But Olynyk figures to fit beautifully; he is one of the most flummoxing matchup problems in the NBA.

Dragic was overwhelmingly better last season than he has been since arriving in Miami three years ago. He took on a much larger role on the offense without Dwyane Wade or Chris Bosh around, raising his assist rate and taking his long-range shooting to another level. The offense was fully his.

Yet the Heat don’t rely fully on any one player to create points on offense; their shooting is not elite, and neither Dragic nor Waiters is a supreme athlete. They succeed because they find an extra step before the defense has adjusted, and Spoelstra knows which players to put on the court together. It helps when everyone makes open shots — Miami was in the top six in catch-and-shoot 3s per game, according to NBA.com tracking data.

Waiters is similar enough to Dragic in that he can see the court a second or two into the future, but scores in much different ways. The journeyman used 22 percent of his possessions in isolation, a frequency which ranked fifth in the league. However he landed in the 55th percentile as an iso scorer due to a low 42 percent shooting efficiency and a 8.4 percent turnover rate. The simplicity of Miami’s offense helped Waiters thrive.

Somehow, he graded as even less efficient in the pick-and-roll, despite finishing possessions that way nearly as often as Dragic. Waiters was in the 31st percentile as a pick-and-roll ball-handler last season, due again to frequent turnovers and poor shooting. Looking at these struggles, we begin to understand how Olynyk can help everyone thrive.

Driving to the basket and dancing in isolation both require space. Miami unlocked quiet players like Babbitt, Rodney McGruder and James Johnson by planting them behind the arc to start possessions to try and manufacture space. They would catch and read, calculating between driving, shooting or resetting for a pass.

Olynyk’s presence will open the floor even further, as he has earned the respect of defenses. His combination of passing, driving and shooting is something to which only a handful of players can compare. He was the only big man in the league last season to reach the thresholds he did in those categories. His ability to handle a bigger workload in the playoffs and stay effective likely sealed the deal for a team like Miami to give him a big contract.

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And, again, the fit is golden. Calling Miami’s offense simple is really an undersell. The crispness with which they move and react creates easy buckets, but the process isn’t simple. It made productive pieces out of previously unproductive players for a reason — Olynyk figures to elevate Miami’s floor.

Miami went out and got a tremendous match for their offense on a market-value deal, finally taking advantage of the cap room they expected to use for bigger fish. The Heat and their 17th-ranked offense do have room to grow. Kelly Olynyk will help make that happen, giving Goran Dragic and Dion Waiters space and recalibrating an already successful and menacing unit.