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NBA Season Preview 2017-18: Can the Hornets catch a break?

By Chris Manning

BOSTON, MA - OCTOBER 2: Kemba Walker #15 of the Charlotte Hornets handles the ball against the Boston Celtics on October 2, 2017 at the TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images)
BOSTON, MA - OCTOBER 2: Kemba Walker #15 of the Charlotte Hornets handles the ball against the Boston Celtics on October 2, 2017 at the TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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Last year, the Hornets rated out as 14th in both offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency. For the year, they were the league’s 12th best team in terms of overall net rating. That put them ahead of teams like the Pacers, Hawks and Bulls, but the Hornets didn’t make the playoffs. They instead finished 11th in the Eastern Conference. And the Pacers, Hawks and Bulls did make the playoffs.

It’s not exactly possible to pinpoint one thing that caused the Hornets to so underperform what their overall numbers suggest. You could pinpoint Nicolas Batum having a down year after having one of his best. Marvin Williams had an off year, too. You could look at the team not really having all that many good players. You could focus on the fact they only had six players play more than 70 games. And you certainty could look at the Hornets’ 36.4 percent winning percentage in close games — the third-worst percentage in the league.

In short: The Hornets were sort of unlikely last season. If anything, it should give them confidence in a possible bounce back season. That, in addition to the power vacuum in the Eastern Conference. Three playoff teams from last season — the same three that maybe shouldn’t have finished ahead of the Hornets in the first place — all made moves this summer that should send them to the bottom of the league. Other teams could fill that void as well, but Charlotte is just solid enough that they should expect to be in the playoffs.

What Charlotte has to figure out amid hoping they were just unlucky last year is how some new pieces fit. The big one is Dwight Howard, a player who has struggled to fit in anywhere since leaving the Magic. He’s saying all the right things, but he’s still going to have to make adjustments to his game to play in Charlotte. Hornets coach Steve Clifford demands discipline and buying in. Is Howard really willing to do that? As crazy as it sounds, it’s unclear if he can replace what Cody Zeller brought last season.

Then there’s Malik Monk, a rookie who is going to be thrown into a large role right away. Not only does he need to provide spacing, but he needs to backup both Batum and Kemba Walker. Even in a bad conference, that’s a lot to ask of a rookie. And defensively, he’s probably going to struggle. Clifford’s system isn’t the most complex in the league, but it demands discipline and knowledge. For someone who doesn’t project as a strong defender in the first place, it’s seriously questionable if he’ll be able to hang on that end as a rookie.

There’s also the question of how they can survive when Walker sits. Last year, the Hornets were 10.1 points worse per 100 possessions when Walker sat, which is probably another reason why the season fell apart. As currently constructed, there’s no real backup for Walker. Maybe Michael Carter-Williams works out, but he’s currently coming back from knee surgeries. He’s also not proven to be a quality point guard.

Maybe that’s where Howard comes in. Maybe in the moments where Walker sits, Charlotte can lean on Howard in hopes of getting some value of the post-ups Howard has craved. But will that — which would be a change from what Charlotte likes to do — turn into an efficient way to survive without Walker?

Next: Nylon Calculus: Using math to predict the MVP race

Maybe it will. Maybe it will all simply workout for the Hornets this year, a year after they never seemed to catch a break.