After a legitimately magical 41-41 season, the Heat have locked into last year’s roster for the foreseeable future. Did they make the right move?
The Heat’s midseason renaissance was one of the NBAs truly inspiring stories last season. They fought through a myriad of injuries, clawing all the way back from 11-30 to 41-41, before missing the playoffs on the last day of the season. Coach Spo and the front office refused to throw in the towel and fire up the tank. The Heat are ultimately betting on their winning organizational culture to propel them forward for the rest of this decade, rather than playing NBA lotto and trying to find a potential franchise cornerstone in the draft. That’s a big gamble, even for a confident franchise like the Heat.
When Miami didn’t land Gordon Hayward or any other major free agents this past summer, they re-upped the whole gang from last season. The Heat are now capped out for the foreseeable future. Dion Waiters, James Johnson and Josh Richardson all signed four-year contracts to remain with the Heat. Kelly Olynyk signed for $50 million over the next four years. Tyler Johnson’s contract is going to balloon to over $19 million after this season and Hassan Whiteside and Goran Dragic don’t come off of Miami’s books until 2019 at the earliest. This is Miami’s roster moving forward. The Heat have made a bunch of long-term salary commitments and they’re going to be butting up against the tax within the next few seasons.
The Heat should be a solid playoff team for the next few seasons with this roster. They probably won’t be approaching the 50 win mark with this core though, unless a guy like Justise Winslow makes a leap. Miami will likely fall within the No. 4-7 seed range in the playoffs this season. This team has a ton of versatility on both ends of the floor. The Heat should be able to construct a rock-solid defense, especially if Winslow is back and fully healthy. The offense is a little more concerning. Much of their success on that end will depend on whether or not guys like Waiters and James Johnson can continue to produce at a high level.
Another thing to watch for is how Coach Spo will distribute minutes. The Heat were a fun bunch with a great locker room environment last year. With so many viable options in the rotation some guys will get minutes reductions, which could negatively impact the team’s chemistry on and off the court.
Did the Heat’s front office ultimately make a good choice by locking in this roster? If this group is going to be winning 45-ish games and isn’t a no-brainer pick to win a playoff series, was committing a ton of money to it for the next few seasons prudent? We should learn a lesson from Daryl Morey and the Rockets. Many initially scoffed when they signed Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson in 2016. Those seemingly unimpressive signings helped them become awesome though. And becoming awesome landed them Chris Paul.
The Heat are a well-respected organization throughout the league, top to bottom. In the post-LeBron era they have established themselves as a franchise that develops unheralded young talent and rehabilitates the value of misfits…Whiteside, Waiters, Richardson and both Johnsons we’re looking at you! Those things typically don’t go unnoticed. If this squad continues to succeed, competes its ass off and plays a fun brand of basketball, the Heat should be on the radar of star players that will (inevitably) become available via trade. Guys want to play for this franchise. Obviously, that doesn’t guarantee anything. Just ask the Mavericks. They have consistently assembled rag tag rosters, made the playoffs and gotten the most out of their guys. Making the playoffs every year hasn’t landed Dallas any star players though.
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Miami’s strategy is reasonable moving forward. The Heat are one of the few teams in the NBA that doesn’t have to tear down its roster to reload. With Pat Riley and Coach Spo in charge, they don’t seem to be in a rush to change their approach. The Heat are still who we thought they were.