Jusuf Nurkic arrived in Portland in February and instantly made his presence felt. Scoring, rebounding, adding physicality and energy he helped spark a strong Trail Blazers run that secured a playoff berth. It was a startling turn from the dispiriting end to his time with the Denver Nuggets.
In 20 games with Portland, Nurkic averaged 18.7 points, 12.8 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 1.5 steals and 2.3 blocks per 36 minutes, with a Box Plus-Minus of +2.7 per 100 possessions. In 139 games with Denver, Nurkic averaged 15.3 points, 12.0 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.5 steals and 2.2 blocks per game with a Box Plus-Minus of -1.3 points per 100 possessions. The difference was lower efficiency on a lower scoring volume in Denver, along with a lot more fouls.
The question for Portland becomes how much stock to put in a 20-game sample of extremely promising player, especially held against a sample seven-times as long, of frustratingly inconsistent player. Has Nurkic really turned the corner? Portland’s playoff hopes depend on it.
The graph below looks at a rolling five-game average of Nurkic’s game score. Game score is a basic single-game metric built from the box score, roughly scaled to points per game (i.e., 20 or above would be a strong mark).
Nurkic was very impressive in Portland. It was also by far the best stretch of his career and the only stretch where we can legitimately say that he consistently provided strong production. Before that there are peaks and valleys, and long stretches where he was out with injury.
Obviously, there are reasons why Portland may have been a better fit for Nurkic. He didn’t have to share space with Nikola Jokic, a situation that probably took a functional and psychological toll. In Portland, he plays with Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, a pair of shooters and primary ball-handlers far ahead of anyone he played with in Denver. He also gets to wear a chip on those enormous shoulders.
For the Trail Blazers to be successful this season, they need him to leave in the peaks on the right side of that graph. They need his lumbering rolls to the baskets to produce points, and his elbow touches to produce easy jumpers and layups for his diminutive teammates. They need him to protect the rim and they need him provide a physical edge.
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They need him to be the Jusuf Nurkic he was for 20 games last season. If he can be that guy, then the sky is the limit for the Trail Blazers.
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