NBA Season Preview 2017-18: Aaron Gordon is a power forward, not a small forward
Aaron Gordon has spent half of his NBA career playing out of position. Despite entering the 2014 NBA Draft as a power forward, he logged a third of his rookie minutes with the Magic at small forward. That figure increased slightly to 40.0 percent as a sophomore and peaked as high as 63.0 percent last season. The latter doesn’t even include 2.0 percent of his minutes coming at shooting guard.
To be fair to the Magic, Gordon has been a confusing prospect. While he is built more like a small forward at 6-foot-8 and 220 pounds, he has the skills of a power forward — a freak athlete who struggles to space the floor and create his own shot with consistency. He has made some improvements in those areas since entering the NBA, but not to the point where he can be expected to play small forward full-time in an era where floor spacing is of the upmost importance to NBA teams.
Consider Gordon’s scoring profile from last season. Just over half of his offense came from a combination of spot-ups, pick-and-rolls as the ball handler and transition opportunities, which are three play types normally associated with guards and playmaking small forwards. Gordon, however, was below league average in each category. Where he did excel was as a cutter, the roller in pick-and-rolls and on putbacks, which are three play types normally associated with power forwards and centers. He ranked in the 74.6 percentile or better in each one.
That’s not to say Gordon should never run a pick-and-roll or that he should give up on ever being a spot-up shooter — having to play as much small forward as he has might actually help him in the long-run — but it goes to show how important fit is. Even though Gordon does have weaknesses in his game, they are far easier to cover up when he’s featured at power forward because he can rely more on his speed, strength and athleticism to take traditional power forwards off the dribble. There’s therefore less of a need for him to have the elite skills generally required to beat most backcourt defenders in those same situations.
Most importantly, it’s less of a necessity for Gordon to make outside jump shots in volume as a power forward because there’s more room for him to operate when he’s surrounded by two 3-point shooters and Nikola Vucevic, who is an excellent midrange shooter. That much became clear in how Gordon’s shot selection changed following the departure of Serge Ibaka, which is when he started to play more power forward. Prior to the trade, 59.6 percent of Gordon’s shot attempts were a combination of pull-ups and catch-and-shoot jumpers. After the trade, pull-ups and catch-and-shoot jumpers made up 46.4 percent of his total shot attempts.
Gordon made up the difference by increasing his shooting frequency within 10 feet of the basket by 13.5 percentage points, thereby giving him more opportunities to showcase his speed and athleticism inside the 3-point line in isolation…
…as a cutter…
…as a rim-runner in transition…
…and as a roller.
Even the 3-pointers Gordon took down the final stretch of the season were easier. His attempts per game decreased, as did his success rate, but 74.0 percent of his 3s were wide open compared to 52.1 percent when Ibaka was on the roster. That bodes well for Gordon in the long-run as he continues to refine his jump shot.
The impact overall was notable for both Gordon and the Magic. Whereas Gordon averaged 11.2 points, 4.6 rebounds and 1.9 assists per game on 42.9 percent shooting before the Ibaka trade, he averaged 16.2 points, 6.2 rebounds and 1.7 assists on 49.8 percent shooting after. As for the Magic, they went from being outscored by 3.7 points per 100 possessions with Gordon on the court before the Ibaka trade to being outscored by only 1.2 points per 100 possessions after.
Next: Fantasy basketball preview for the Orlando Magic
This season we’ll find out more if there’s more to those numbers. Frank Vogel acknowledged in February of last season that Gordon is better suited at power forward, so he will, in all likelihood, be their starting power forward on opening night. It might not be enough for them to make the playoffs, but helping the Magic win more than 30 games for only the second time in the last six seasons would be a step in the right direction. So would playing their best prospect at his natural position.